专家又让老百姓花钱了……

1

在最近的一档节目中，央视名嘴白岩松在镜头里紧锁眉头、忧心忡忡、一脸真诚的问专家：

老百姓有钱但是他也不敢花，不愿意花，您怎么看待让人愿意花钱？

图片来源：网络

不得不说，还得是人家白老师会问问题。

我想起了之前王朔对他的一个评价：一个有着莫名优越感的肉喇叭，还总爱紧锁眉头，扮演社会良心。

关于刺激消费，我在之前的文章《经济学家吴晓求：不要再刺激内需了》中聊过，今天请允许我再唠叨两句。

这个问题问的实在可笑，前提和问题本身就很荒谬。

老百姓敢不敢花钱的大前提是得有钱。

下面这张图是申万对于疫情后我们居民工资、财产净收入、转移净收入、和经营性收入的一个推算。

图片来源：申万宏源宏观

还有一个数据，根据北师大中国收入分配研究院2021年发表的调查数据，大陆月收入2000元以下的人口约为9.64亿。

就这经济状况，你能说老百姓有钱吗？

扣除吃喝拉撒这些基本生活开支，还有医疗、教育、养老等后顾之忧。

如果这些都不谈，就谈怎么让老百姓花钱，这跟耍流氓有区别吗？

2

有人说，我们有130万亿的居民存款呢！

这个就不得不聊一下，占总人口比重只有0.33%，财富占比67%，人均财富6300多万，人数大概460万的富裕阶层了。

这部分人的消费是往上的，往外的，他们本就不存在消费不足的问题，在他们身上还能再榨出花吗？

现实是：富人的消费状况是“饱和”的，穷人的消费是“透支”的。

不是说不能刺激消费，但刺激它不是常态，频繁刺激可能不仅解决不了眼前问题，时间长了，都能搞出一堆后遗症来。

刺激就好比做手术前打麻药，你干打麻药不做手术，时间久了，不仅麻药没用了，你的神经末梢可能也被打傻了。

内需消费要想起来，得让这9亿人的钱包鼓起来，这才是我们消费的基本盘和增量。

消费是收入的函数，更全面的表述应该是，消费是收入、收入预期和财富存量的函数。

如果你一方面承认“消费是收入的函数”，另一方面又希望通过增加消费拉动经济增长，逻辑上是否是通的呢？

要增加居民消费需求就必须首先增加居民收入。

收入提高了，财富增值了，有了完善的社会保障，老百姓花钱这事真不用费尽心机去刺激。

3

经济学家林毅夫在一段采访中说：

投资拉动的经济增长不可持续，要改成消费拉动的经济增长。

我觉得提出这个看法的人呢，不是不懂经济就是故意误导中国。 

如果没有劳动生产力水平提高带来的家庭收入的增长，消费增长不可持续，如果收入不增长而消费增长，开始消费靠储蓄，储蓄用光后变成家庭的负债，积累到一定程度后，可能变成家庭破产。

在网上林教授的观点也引来了一众所谓的经济学家和专家的批评。

他们的逻辑似乎也没太大毛病：我们生产的终极目标是消费，当百姓消费增加时，会刺激市场需求，推动企业扩大生产，创造更多就业岗位，从而促进整个国民经济的发展。

经济增长的目的是不断提高老百姓的消费能力和生活水平，但这是经济增长的目标，而非手段或经济逻辑。

尤其是当下很多家庭资产负债表受损的情况下，拉动消费刺激经济可能适得其反。

发消费券，甚至是发钱我不反对，但仅仅是通过这种刺激消费是不行的，它不是主要手段,不能解决根本问题，源头上还是要提高民众的收入和购买力。

投资—消费是一个循环系统，但现在这个循环不畅了，或者坏了，堵了，怎么办？

需要有一个原始支点来打破它，让它逐步走上良性的循环，投资仍然是当下解决问题的原始终点。

我之前说过，居民70%的财富被锁死在房子上，资产负债表受损严重，企业不愿意借钱扩产，这个时候中央是最应该下场打破负循环的。

4

有人说，该修的路都修了，该盖的房子都盖的差不多了，该架的桥也都架了，投资过剩了。

政府投资基础设施是公共产品，投资于公共产品一般既无商业回报，也难以产生现金流。

就拿近期大火特火的东北旅游热，冰雪世界那可是几天为哈尔滨带来了泼天的财富啊!

大陆广义基础设施投资远远没有饱和，特别是在医疗、养老、教育、科研、地下管廊和信息等新基建领域，中国的基础设施存量远远落后于发达国家，在某些方面甚至不如一些发展中国家。

不少学者反对加大基础设施投资力度，担心搞“面子”工程、“豆腐渣”工程，浪费资源，甚至滋长腐败。

这些担心不无道理，但这是如何把关进行投资，而不是应不应该投的问题。

消费和投资相互促进的良性循环应该是这样的：

广义基础设施投资增长——各类投资增长——收入增长——消费增长——收入增长——投资、消费增长——收入增长。

这个循环中,收入增长是起点,当下情况财政扩张广义基础设施投资是原始支撑点。

只有这样，找到消费和投资良性循环的起点，启动投资、消费和经济增长之间的良性互动才有可能。

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