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今天小編為大家帶來《中國光伏産業關鍵礦産資源供應風險評價與預警研究》精讀。
歡迎您的用心通路！
本期推文閱讀時長大約5分鐘，請您耐心閱讀。
Share interest, spread happiness,
increase knowledge, and leave beautiful.
Dear you,
this is the LearingYard Academy!
Today, the editor brings intensive reading of
"Research on the Risk Evaluation and EarlyWarning of Critical Mineral Resources for China's Solar PV Industry".
Welcome your visit!
The reading time of this tweet is about 5 minutes, please read it with patience.
今天小編将從思維導圖、精讀内容、知識補充三個闆塊為大家帶來《中國光伏産業關鍵礦産資源供應風險評價與預警研究》評價名額體系的确立介紹。
Today, I will bring you an introduction to the establishment of the evaluation index system of the "Research on the Risk Evaluation and EarlyWarning of Critical Mineral Resources for China's Solar PV Industry" from three sections of the mind map, intensive reading content, and knowledge supplement.
01思維導圖
02精讀内容
一、評價名額體系的設計
1. Design of evaluation index system
文章從資源安全因素、市場風險因素、地緣政治因素和國際環境不确定性因素四個次元出發，根據名額的适用性、相關性、資料的可用性和可信度，最終選擇11個定量名額來評估中國光伏産業關鍵礦産資源的供應風險。
The article starts from four dimensions: resource security factors, market risk factors, geopolitical factors and international environmental uncertainty factors, and finally selects 11 quantitative indicators to assess the supply risk of key mineral resources for China's PV industry based on the applicability, relevance, data availability and credibility of the indicators.
二、評價名額說明
2. Description of evaluation indicators
三、資料來源
3. Data sources
文中的進出口量與進出口貿易額均來自聯合國商品貿易統計資料庫（UN comtrade)；中國礦産儲量與産量資料來自中國礦業年鑒（2008~2020年）和中國國土資源統計年鑒（2008~2020年），中國礦産消費量資料來自世界金屬統計年鑒（WBMS）；礦産資源價格來自英國《Mental Bulletin》、倫敦金屬交易所（London MetalExchange）；全球治理指數和環境績效指數分别由世界銀行和耶魯大學機構釋出。
The import and export volumes and import and export trade values in this paper are obtained from UN comtrade; China's mineral reserves and production data are obtained from China Mining Yearbook (2008~2020) and China Land and Resources Statistical Yearbook (2008~2020), and China's mineral consumption data are obtained from WBMS; mineral resource prices The global governance index and environmental performance index are published by the World Bank and Yale University, respectively.
03知識補充
進口依賴度：又被稱作對外依存度，是礦産資源淨進口量與消費量的比值，反映了國内礦産資源消費對國外資源的依賴程度。
消費增長率：是指消費增長和下降的速率，消費增長幅度愈低，說明市場對資源的需求愈低，相應地，關鍵礦産面臨的供應風險也會随之下降。
價格波動：是指價格波動率的絕對值，市場價格受市場供求關系變化的影響，反映了目前礦産資源市場供求關系平衡的穩定程度。
資源保障度：是資源儲量與消費量的比值，反映了在外部資源供給通道被切斷的情況下，本國資源供給的可支撐水準。
儲采比：是儲量與産量的比值，主要衡量國内礦産資源的禀賦情況，代表當外部資源供應中斷時國内資源的可持續性，是确定資源安全的另一依據。
生産增長率：指某一種礦物資源的年度增長率，生産增長率數值越高，表明資源供應越穩定，該資源的供應風險低，供應安全程度高。
大國博弈：代表了中國在中美日光伏産業關鍵礦産資源國際市場中的競争地位，反映了國家的整體發展狀态和趨勢。
市場集中度：是所有供應風險名額體系中使用最多的，赫芬達爾—赫希曼指數(HHI）用于衡量國家和企業層面的采礦生産集中度，代表國外礦産資源市場的壟斷風險。
政治穩定性：
表示進口來源國内部或外部影響破壞該國政治穩定的可能性，政治不穩定可能會對礦産的供應産生影響。
環境風險：衡量了進口來源國遭受環境污染或者破壞的風險。
全球重大突發事件：社會動亂，地緣沖突，自然災害，生産事故，突發公共衛生事件，都會增加礦産資源供給的風險，進而導緻供給的安全性下降。
Import dependence: also known as foreign dependence, is the ratio of net imports of mineral resources to consumption, reflecting the degree of dependence of domestic mineral resources consumption on foreign resources.
Consumption growth rate: refers to the rate of growth and decline in consumption. The lower the consumption growth rate, the lower the market demand for resources, and accordingly, the supply risk faced by key minerals will also decline.
Price volatility: is the absolute value of the price volatility rate, market prices are affected by changes in market supply and demand, reflecting the stability of the current balance of supply and demand in the mineral resources market.
Resource security degree: is the ratio of resource reserves to consumption, reflecting the supportable level of domestic resource supply in the event that external resource supply channels are cut off.
Reserve-to-consumption ratio: It is the ratio of reserves to production, which mainly measures the endowment of domestic mineral resources and represents the sustainability of domestic resources when the supply of external resources is interrupted, and is another basis for determining resource security.
Production growth rate: refers to the annual growth rate of a mineral resource. A higher value of production growth rate indicates a more stable resource supply, a low supply risk of that resource and a high degree of supply security.
Great Power Game: represents China's competitive position in the international market of key mineral resources for the PV industry in China, the United States and Japan, and reflects the overall development status and trend of the country.
Market Concentration: The most used of all supply risk indicator systems, the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) is used to measure the concentration of mining production at the national and corporate levels, representing the monopoly risk in foreign mineral resource markets.
Political stability: Indicates the likelihood that internal or external influences in the importing source country will destabilize the country's political stability, and that political instability may have an impact on the supply of minerals.
Environmental Risk: Measures the risk of environmental pollution or damage to the importing source country.
Major global emergencies: Social unrest, geopolitical conflicts, natural disasters, production accidents, and public health emergencies can increase the risk of mineral resource supply and thus lead to a decrease in the security of supply.
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參考資料：Deepl、CSDN、百度
參考文獻：
[1]盧洋. 中國光伏産業關鍵礦産資源供應風險評價與預警研究 [D]. 中國地質大學, 2022.
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