龚鹏程对话海外学者第七期：在后现代情境中，被技术统治的人类社会，只有强化交谈、重建沟通伦理，才能获得文化新生的力量。这不是谁的理论，而是每个人都应实践的活动。龚鹏程先生遊走世界，并曾主持过“世界汉学研究中心”。我们会陆续推出“龚鹏程对话海外学者”系列文章，请他对话一些学界有意义的灵魂。范围不局限于汉学，会涉及多种学科。以期深山长谷之水，四面而出。
prof brian sturgess（布莱恩·斯特吉斯）
布莱恩·斯特吉斯教授（prof brian sturgess）是《世界经济》（world economics）的首席经济学家，目前在英国白金汉大学（university of buckingham）担任经济学教授。
他曾在多所大学教授经济学，在书籍、学术期刊和报刊上广泛发表关于广告、媒体和体育的经济学以及经济数据问题的文章。
他在商业银行和媒体公司担任投资分析师和顾问近20余年，其中包括bbc、《每日电讯》集团、世界广告研究中心、巴克莱银行等，研究媒体企业的融资和经济问题。
他还曾是欧盟委员会的体育、文化和广播顾问，以及智利足球联合会的经济顾问。他目前的研究兴趣是经济数据、银行和金融稳定、国际贸易、新兴市场、伊斯兰经济学和可再生能源经济学。
龚鹏程：您好，经济学家很多，但您特别让人好奇。例如您对媒体企业的融资和经济问题非常关注，在媒体公司担任投资分析师多年，又担任过欧盟委员会的体育、文化和广播顾问等等，是格外了解文化和媒体的经济学家。但您知道，中国文化界一般与银行、金融、国贸领域多有隔阂，经济学家也较少关注您所从事的这些工作和研究。因此我想请您就此多聊一聊。
布莱恩·斯特吉斯：龚教授，您好。我对媒体和文化产业经济学的兴趣始于数十年前。20世纪80年代，我是诺丁汉大学的一名产业经济学家，但我教授了一门关于营销经济学的课程，这使我对广告活动对市场的影响产生了兴趣。这涉及到一些问题，如广告是一种竞争工具，还是它更多地是寡头垄断行业的特征，与市场权力和更高的价格和利润有关？于是我在1981年出版了一本关于广告经济学的书，加深了我与广告业的联系，并在学术期刊和媒体上发表了许多文章。
广告收入，作为媒体公司的主要收入来源，其重要性自然使我的研究兴趣扩展到这个行业。我研究的行业在很大程度上被许多经济学家所忽视，因此我被聘为投资分析师，对在伦敦、纽约和巴黎的证券交易所上市的大量广告公司、电视、广播和出版公司进行估值。这其中有一个明显的联系——由于宏观经济的增长，广告支出的增加，以及对媒体行业的管制放松，媒体公司的价值和节目制作的价值得到了提高，也包括如体育等文化活动的其他权限。
在成立自己的公司后，我花了近十年时间分析全球体育产业。这家公司为该行业的参与者提供商业新闻，并且一直到2008年，我都为英格兰和苏格兰、美国、土耳其、墨西哥、南非、尼日利亚、埃及、中国和智利的足球市场的客户、俱乐部、协会和广播公司开展咨询工作。
my interest in the economics of media and the cultural industries began several decades ago. i was an industrial economist at the university of nottingham in the 1980s, but i taught a course on the economics of marketing, which led to an interest in the impact of advertising activity on markets. this involved questions such as was advertising a competitive tool or was it more a feature of oligopolistic industries and associated with market power and higher prices and profits? this led to a book on the economics of advertising, published in 1981 which deepened my connections with the advertising industry and lead to the publication of many articles in academic journals and in the press.
the importance of advertising revenues as a major source of income for media companies naturally expanded my research interests into this industry. my research into an industry, which was largely neglected by many economists, lead to my recruitment as an investment analyst to value the significant number of advertising agencies, television, radio and publishing companies that were listed on the stock exchanges of london, new york and paris. there was a clear link – rising advertising expenditure, due to macroeconomic economic growth, and a deregulated media industry, was driving the value of media companies and the value of programme production and other rights to cultural events such as sport.
i then spent nearly a decade analysing the sports industry globally after setting up my own company. this company provided business news to the participants in the sector and i carried out consulting work for clients, clubs, associations, and broadcasters in the football markets of england and scotland, the usa, turkey, mexico, south africa, nigeria, egypt, china and chile until 2008.
龚鹏程：您有兴趣的新兴市场是什么？媒体企业正在剧烈转变，新媒体带来新兴市场吗？
布莱恩·斯特吉斯：在我后来担任投资分析师期间，我看到了媒体和文化产业以及体育的重要性，认为它们是经济发展的补充，因为企业有效接触受众和潜在客户的能力是发展国内市场的重要因素。尽管媒体和文化产业在经济中是相对重要的，但却被发展经济学家所忽视。我开发了与人均gdp相一致的媒体和文化产业的演化增长模型，这样来分析出一个国家的广播和广告业是否相对欠发达。这可以诊断出哪些因素——制度、政治、社会或经济——阻碍了该行业的发展。在霸菱银行，我研究了亚洲、非洲和拉丁美洲的一些新兴市场，主要目的是确定那些可能从该行业未来发展的预期路径中受益的公司。
近几十年来，许多新兴市场的媒体行业有了很大的发展，但对它的关注仍然相对缺乏，其原因往往是政治方面的。非洲最发达的媒体行业可能是在南非，尽管尼日利亚是正在增长的。测量也是一个问题。在许多新兴市场，媒体、电信和文化产业的重要性往往被忽视，因为国家统计局缺乏数据，也没有动力去收集数据。2008年，我接手了《世界经济》的总编辑一职，我把杂志的关注点推向了整个新兴市场的经济数据质量——gdp、价格指数、国际贸易等，但我越来越关注非洲以及印度和中国的大型经济体。
during my later period as an investment analyst, i saw the importance of media and cultural industries and sport as complementary to economic development since the ability of firms to reach audiences and potential customers efficiently is an important element of growing domestic markets. the media and cultural industries are relatively neglected by development economists despite their relative significance in the economy and i developed models of their evolutionary growth in line with gdp per capita which would allow a country to be analysed to see whether the broadcasting and advertising industries in a country were relatively underdeveloped. this permitted a diagnosis of what factors – institutional, political, social or economic – were hindering the sector’s development. at ing barings i studied a number of emerging markets in asia, africa and latin america, with the main objective of identifying companies that might benefit from the anticipated path of the sector’s future development.
the media sector has developed considerably in recent decades in many emerging markets, but there is still a relative lack of attention paid to it, often for political reasons. probably the most developed media industry in africa has been in south africa, although nigeria is experiencing growth. one problem is measurement. the importance of media, telecommunications and the cultural industries are often neglected in many emerging markets because national statistics offices lack data and are not incentivised to collect it. in 2008, i took over the role of managing editor of world economics and i have pushed the focus of the journal into an interest in the quality of economic data – gdp, price indices, international trade etc. across the emerging markets, but i have increasingly focused on africa and on the large economies of india and china.
龚鹏程：伊斯兰经济学成为热点，已经有段时间了，最近的发展如何？其宗教伦理对经济活动的影响大不大，有优势吗？
布莱恩·斯特吉斯：我第一次对伊斯兰经济和伊斯兰金融感兴趣是在2014年，当时我为沙特阿拉伯的伊斯兰开发银行承担了一些咨询工作。我被要求在6个月内写出主要报告，分析其结构、历史和自1970年代中期成立以来在伊斯兰世界的发展工作范围。这意味着我必须熟悉伊斯兰金融的主要原则——以符合伊斯兰教教法的方式进行日常和大型金融交易和投资的道德基础。伊斯兰教推崇市场、资本主义投资和利润分享，因为毕竟穆罕默德最初是个商人。伊斯兰金融的道德基础允许市场交易和财富积累，但强调在商业行为中应该有公平、仁慈和慈善。
关于伊斯兰金融和规则如何改变经济行为，行为学研究中并没有多少证据。然而，有一些证据表明，宗教当局在道德上认可的伊斯兰银行业务的存在，为储蓄和投资挖掘了资金。在为国际贸易提供额外的资金供应方面也有一些优势，而传统银行在这方面存在很大的不足。也有一些证据表明，伊斯兰债券市场的增长对经济增长和一些政府的公共财政产生了积极的影响。最后，也有缺点，那就是学者们对许多金融产品的伊斯兰教教法解释往往存在分歧，这可能会抑制金融产品的创新，因为交易成本更高。
i first became interested in islamic economics and islamic finance in 2014 when i undertake some consulting work for the islamic development bank in saudi arabia. i was asked to write major report in six months analysing its structure, its history and the scope of its development work in the islamic world since its foundation in the mid-1970s. this meant i had to familiarise myself with the main principles of islamic finance - the ethical underpinning of carrying out every day and large financial transactions and investments in a way that was compatible with the shar’ia. islam has a presumption in favour of markets and capitalist investment and profit sharing since after all mohammed was originally a merchant. the ethical underpinning of islamic finance permits market transactions and the accumulation of wealth, but stresses that there should be fairness, mercy and charity in commercial behaviour.
there is not much evidence from behavioural studies about how islamic finance and rules, changes economic actions. there is some evidence, however, that the existence of ethically sanctioned islamic banking practices by religious authorities, has tapped into funds for savings and investment. there are also some advantages in terms of providing an additional supply of finance for international trade, an area where there are large deficiencies offered by conventional banks. there is also some evidence that the growth in the sukuk bond market has had a positive effect on economic growth and the public finances of some governments. finally, there are however disadvantages in that often there is disagreement among scholars about shar’ia interpretations of many financial products which can inhibit innovation in financial products since transaction costs are higher.
龚鹏程：从大数据看，疫情后全球金融稳定状况如何？
布莱恩·斯特吉斯：疫情给经济数据的收集带来了问题，而且不幸的是，产生了任何政府操纵健康和经济统计数据的动机。
谈到金融稳定，在短期内，即未来两到三年内，疫情导致政府债务大量增加，从而导致世界部分地区——美国、英国和欧洲的私营部门流动性增加，同时消费支出被抑制。与稳定有关的问题在于供应限制和被压制的需求之间的关系非常紧张，会导致通货膨胀，以及加税加息可能扼杀增长并导致破产。当政府和中央银行对非常规的问题采取常规的宏观经济补救措施时，这些危险可能会出现。
从中期来看，会威胁全球金融稳定的因素来自用于改造世界应对气候变化威胁的投资规模、价值和融资，各国政府利用这些来实现其应对气候变化的承诺。在疫情爆发之前，一些中央银行已经开始关注气候变化对金融稳定的影响。英格兰银行前行长马克·卡尼在提高对这一问题的认识方面发挥了全球作用。
疫情及其后果意味着中央银行不得不将重点转向支持经济活动以及量化宽松和宽松货币政策的通胀后果。
the epidemic has caused problems in the collection of economic data and has produced, unfortunately, incentives by any governments to manipulate health and economic statistics.
turning to financial stability, in the short-term, the next two to three years, the pandemic has led to a large increase in government debt and consequently private sector liquidity across parts of the world – the usa, the uk and europe while at the same time consumption expenditure has been supressed. the problem for stability is that there is a knife edge between supply constraints and supressed demand leading to inflation and the dangers that tax rises and interest rate rises could stifle growth and cause bankruptcies. these dangers might arise as governments and central banks undertake conventional macroeconomic economic remedies to what is an unconventional problem. the medium-term threat to global financial stability are the scale, value and financing of the investments needed to transform the world to meet the commitments made by governments to respond to the threats of climate change. prior to the pandemic a number of central banks were become concerned about the impact of climate change on financial stability. mark carney, the former governor of the bank of england, has played a global role raising awareness about this problem. the pandemic and its aftermath have meant that central banks have had to switch emphasis to supporting economic activity and the inflationary consequences of quantitative easing and loose monetary policy.
龚鹏程：谢谢。还想请教，您对中国的文化产业怎么看？
布莱恩·斯特吉斯：就中国文化领域而言，我对中国电影业的快速增长印象深刻，我相信中国电影业的全球票房份额约为25%，是世界第二大电影业。显然，这种增长是随着中国人均gdp和消费支出的增长而实现的，但它是通过促进对电影制作和发行的公共和私人投资而实现的。万达院线和广东大地数字电影院等连锁影院的发展也令人印象深刻。我注意到电影这个行业已经从陈凯歌等导演的艺术类型作品和张艺谋早期在西方获得很多赞誉的电影，发展到更受欢迎的电影和跨越多种类型的大片，包括大型预算的历史作品、科幻和动画。我认为，由于netflix等互联网发行商的购买政策，他们获得了《流浪地球》和其他电影的版权，因此全球对中国电影的兴趣会有所增长。
in terms of the chinese cultural sector, i have been impressed by the rapid growth of the chinese film industry which i believe with a global box office share of around 25% is the second largest in the world. obviously, this growth has followed the growth in chinese gdp per capita and consumer spending, but it has been enabled by facilitating public as well as private investments in film making and distribution. the growth of cinema chains such as wanda cinema line and guangdong dadi digital cinemas has also been impressive. i note that the film sector has graduated from art type productions by directors such as chen kaige and the earlier films of zhang yimou which gained much acclaim in the west, to more popular films and blockbusters across a number of genre including big budget historical productions, science fiction and animation. i think there will be a growth in interest in chinese movies as a result of the buying policy of internet distributors such as netflix who acquired the rights to the wandering earth and other films.
龚鹏程
龚鹏程，1956年生于台北，台湾师范大学博士，当代著名学者和思想家。著作已出版一百五十多本。
办有大学、出版社、杂志社、书院等，并规划城市建设、主题园区等多处。讲学于世界各地。并在北京、上海、杭州、台北、巴黎、日本、澳门等地举办过书法展。现为美国龚鹏程基金会主席。