龔鵬程對話海外學者第七期：在後現代情境中，被技術統治的人類社會，隻有強化交談、重建溝通倫理，才能獲得文化新生的力量。這不是誰的理論，而是每個人都應實踐的活動。龔鵬程先生遊走世界，并曾主持過“世界漢學研究中心”。我們會陸續推出“龔鵬程對話海外學者”系列文章，請他對話一些學界有意義的靈魂。範圍不局限于漢學，會涉及多種學科。以期深山長谷之水，四面而出。
prof brian sturgess（布萊恩·斯特吉斯）
布萊恩·斯特吉斯教授（prof brian sturgess）是《世界經濟》（world economics）的首席經濟學家，目前在英國白金漢大學（university of buckingham）擔任經濟學教授。
他曾在多所大學教授經濟學，在書籍、學術期刊和報刊上廣泛發表關于廣告、媒體和體育的經濟學以及經濟資料問題的文章。
他在商業銀行和媒體公司擔任投資分析師和顧問近20餘年，其中包括bbc、《每日電訊》集團、世界廣告研究中心、巴克萊銀行等，研究媒體企業的融資和經濟問題。
他還曾是歐盟委員會的體育、文化和廣播顧問，以及智利足球聯合會的經濟顧問。他目前的研究興趣是經濟資料、銀行和金融穩定、國際貿易、新興市場、伊斯蘭經濟學和可再生能源經濟學。
龔鵬程：您好，經濟學家很多，但您特别讓人好奇。例如您對媒體企業的融資和經濟問題非常關注，在媒體公司擔任投資分析師多年，又擔任過歐盟委員會的體育、文化和廣播顧問等等，是格外了解文化和媒體的經濟學家。但您知道，中國文化界一般與銀行、金融、國貿領域多有隔閡，經濟學家也較少關注您所從事的這些工作和研究。是以我想請您就此多聊一聊。
布萊恩·斯特吉斯：龔教授，您好。我對媒體和文化産業經濟學的興趣始于數十年前。20世紀80年代，我是諾丁漢大學的一名産業經濟學家，但我教授了一門關于營銷經濟學的課程，這使我對廣告活動對市場的影響産生了興趣。這涉及到一些問題，如廣告是一種競争工具，還是它更多地是寡頭壟斷行業的特征，與市場權力和更高的價格和利潤有關？于是我在1981年出版了一本關于廣告經濟學的書，加深了我與廣告業的聯系，并在學術期刊和媒體上發表了許多文章。
廣告收入，作為媒體公司的主要收入來源，其重要性自然使我的研究興趣擴充到這個行業。我研究的行業在很大程度上被許多經濟學家所忽視，是以我被聘為投資分析師，對在倫敦、紐約和巴黎的證券交易所上市的大量廣告公司、電視、廣播和出版公司進行估值。這其中有一個明顯的聯系——由于宏觀經濟的增長，廣告支出的增加，以及對媒體行業的管制放松，媒體公司的價值和節目制作的價值得到了提高，也包括如體育等文化活動的其他權限。
在成立自己的公司後，我花了近十年時間分析全球體育産業。這家公司為該行業的參與者提供商業新聞，并且一直到2008年，我都為英格蘭和蘇格蘭、美國、土耳其、墨西哥、南非、奈及利亞、埃及、中國和智利的足球市場的客戶、俱樂部、協會和廣播公司開展咨詢工作。
my interest in the economics of media and the cultural industries began several decades ago. i was an industrial economist at the university of nottingham in the 1980s, but i taught a course on the economics of marketing, which led to an interest in the impact of advertising activity on markets. this involved questions such as was advertising a competitive tool or was it more a feature of oligopolistic industries and associated with market power and higher prices and profits? this led to a book on the economics of advertising, published in 1981 which deepened my connections with the advertising industry and lead to the publication of many articles in academic journals and in the press.
the importance of advertising revenues as a major source of income for media companies naturally expanded my research interests into this industry. my research into an industry, which was largely neglected by many economists, lead to my recruitment as an investment analyst to value the significant number of advertising agencies, television, radio and publishing companies that were listed on the stock exchanges of london, new york and paris. there was a clear link – rising advertising expenditure, due to macroeconomic economic growth, and a deregulated media industry, was driving the value of media companies and the value of programme production and other rights to cultural events such as sport.
i then spent nearly a decade analysing the sports industry globally after setting up my own company. this company provided business news to the participants in the sector and i carried out consulting work for clients, clubs, associations, and broadcasters in the football markets of england and scotland, the usa, turkey, mexico, south africa, nigeria, egypt, china and chile until 2008.
龔鵬程：您有興趣的新興市場是什麼？媒體企業正在劇烈轉變，新媒體帶來新興市場嗎？
布萊恩·斯特吉斯：在我後來擔任投資分析師期間，我看到了媒體和文化産業以及體育的重要性，認為它們是經濟發展的補充，因為企業有效接觸閱聽人和潛在客戶的能力是發展國内市場的重要因素。盡管媒體和文化産業在經濟中是相對重要的，但卻被發展經濟學家所忽視。我開發了與人均gdp相一緻的媒體和文化産業的演化增長模型，這樣來分析出一個國家的廣播和廣告業是否相對欠發達。這可以診斷出哪些因素——制度、政治、社會或經濟——阻礙了該行業的發展。在霸菱銀行，我研究了亞洲、非洲和拉丁美洲的一些新興市場，主要目的是确定那些可能從該行業未來發展的預期路徑中受益的公司。
近幾十年來，許多新興市場的媒體行業有了很大的發展，但對它的關注仍然相對缺乏，其原因往往是政治方面的。非洲最發達的媒體行業可能是在南非，盡管奈及利亞是正在增長的。測量也是一個問題。在許多新興市場，媒體、電信和文化産業的重要性往往被忽視，因為國家統計局缺乏資料，也沒有動力去收集資料。2008年，我接手了《世界經濟》的總編輯一職，我把雜志的關注點推向了整個新興市場的經濟資料品質——gdp、價格指數、國際貿易等，但我越來越關注非洲以及印度和中國的大型經濟體。
during my later period as an investment analyst, i saw the importance of media and cultural industries and sport as complementary to economic development since the ability of firms to reach audiences and potential customers efficiently is an important element of growing domestic markets. the media and cultural industries are relatively neglected by development economists despite their relative significance in the economy and i developed models of their evolutionary growth in line with gdp per capita which would allow a country to be analysed to see whether the broadcasting and advertising industries in a country were relatively underdeveloped. this permitted a diagnosis of what factors – institutional, political, social or economic – were hindering the sector’s development. at ing barings i studied a number of emerging markets in asia, africa and latin america, with the main objective of identifying companies that might benefit from the anticipated path of the sector’s future development.
the media sector has developed considerably in recent decades in many emerging markets, but there is still a relative lack of attention paid to it, often for political reasons. probably the most developed media industry in africa has been in south africa, although nigeria is experiencing growth. one problem is measurement. the importance of media, telecommunications and the cultural industries are often neglected in many emerging markets because national statistics offices lack data and are not incentivised to collect it. in 2008, i took over the role of managing editor of world economics and i have pushed the focus of the journal into an interest in the quality of economic data – gdp, price indices, international trade etc. across the emerging markets, but i have increasingly focused on africa and on the large economies of india and china.
龔鵬程：伊斯蘭經濟學成為熱點，已經有段時間了，最近的發展如何？其宗教倫理對經濟活動的影響大不大，有優勢嗎？
布萊恩·斯特吉斯：我第一次對伊斯蘭經濟和伊斯蘭金融感興趣是在2014年，當時我為沙特阿拉伯的伊斯蘭開發銀行承擔了一些咨詢工作。我被要求在6個月内寫出主要報告，分析其結構、曆史和自1970年代中期成立以來在伊斯蘭世界的發展工作範圍。這意味着我必須熟悉伊斯蘭金融的主要原則——以符合伊斯蘭教教法的方式進行日常和大型金融交易和投資的道德基礎。伊斯蘭教推崇市場、資本主義投資和利潤分享，因為畢竟穆罕默德最初是個商人。伊斯蘭金融的道德基礎允許市場交易和财富積累，但強調在商業行為中應該有公平、仁慈和慈善。
關于伊斯蘭金融和規則如何改變經濟行為，行為學研究中并沒有多少證據。然而，有一些證據表明，宗教當局在道德上認可的伊斯蘭銀行業務的存在，為儲蓄和投資挖掘了資金。在為國際貿易提供額外的資金供應方面也有一些優勢，而傳統銀行在這方面存在很大的不足。也有一些證據表明，伊斯蘭債券市場的增長對經濟增長和一些政府的公共财政産生了積極的影響。最後，也有缺點，那就是學者們對許多金融産品的伊斯蘭教教法解釋往往存在分歧，這可能會抑制金融産品的創新，因為交易成本更高。
i first became interested in islamic economics and islamic finance in 2014 when i undertake some consulting work for the islamic development bank in saudi arabia. i was asked to write major report in six months analysing its structure, its history and the scope of its development work in the islamic world since its foundation in the mid-1970s. this meant i had to familiarise myself with the main principles of islamic finance - the ethical underpinning of carrying out every day and large financial transactions and investments in a way that was compatible with the shar’ia. islam has a presumption in favour of markets and capitalist investment and profit sharing since after all mohammed was originally a merchant. the ethical underpinning of islamic finance permits market transactions and the accumulation of wealth, but stresses that there should be fairness, mercy and charity in commercial behaviour.
there is not much evidence from behavioural studies about how islamic finance and rules, changes economic actions. there is some evidence, however, that the existence of ethically sanctioned islamic banking practices by religious authorities, has tapped into funds for savings and investment. there are also some advantages in terms of providing an additional supply of finance for international trade, an area where there are large deficiencies offered by conventional banks. there is also some evidence that the growth in the sukuk bond market has had a positive effect on economic growth and the public finances of some governments. finally, there are however disadvantages in that often there is disagreement among scholars about shar’ia interpretations of many financial products which can inhibit innovation in financial products since transaction costs are higher.
龔鵬程：從大資料看，疫情後全球金融穩定狀況如何？
布萊恩·斯特吉斯：疫情給經濟資料的收集帶來了問題，而且不幸的是，産生了任何政府操縱健康和經濟統計資料的動機。
談到金融穩定，在短期内，即未來兩到三年内，疫情導緻政府債務大量增加，進而導緻世界部分地區——美國、英國和歐洲的私營部門流動性增加，同時消費支出被抑制。與穩定有關的問題在于供應限制和被壓制的需求之間的關系非常緊張，會導緻通貨膨脹，以及加稅加息可能扼殺增長并導緻破産。當政府和中央銀行對非正常的問題采取正常的宏觀經濟補救措施時，這些危險可能會出現。
從中期來看，會威脅全球金融穩定的因素來自用于改造世界應對氣候變化威脅的投資規模、價值和融資，各國政府利用這些來實作其應對氣候變化的承諾。在疫情爆發之前，一些中央銀行已經開始關注氣候變化對金融穩定的影響。英格蘭銀行前行長馬克·卡尼在提高對這一問題的認識方面發揮了全球作用。
疫情及其後果意味着中央銀行不得不将重點轉向支援經濟活動以及量化寬松和寬松貨币政策的通脹後果。
the epidemic has caused problems in the collection of economic data and has produced, unfortunately, incentives by any governments to manipulate health and economic statistics.
turning to financial stability, in the short-term, the next two to three years, the pandemic has led to a large increase in government debt and consequently private sector liquidity across parts of the world – the usa, the uk and europe while at the same time consumption expenditure has been supressed. the problem for stability is that there is a knife edge between supply constraints and supressed demand leading to inflation and the dangers that tax rises and interest rate rises could stifle growth and cause bankruptcies. these dangers might arise as governments and central banks undertake conventional macroeconomic economic remedies to what is an unconventional problem. the medium-term threat to global financial stability are the scale, value and financing of the investments needed to transform the world to meet the commitments made by governments to respond to the threats of climate change. prior to the pandemic a number of central banks were become concerned about the impact of climate change on financial stability. mark carney, the former governor of the bank of england, has played a global role raising awareness about this problem. the pandemic and its aftermath have meant that central banks have had to switch emphasis to supporting economic activity and the inflationary consequences of quantitative easing and loose monetary policy.
龔鵬程：謝謝。還想請教，您對中國的文化産業怎麼看？
布萊恩·斯特吉斯：就中國文化領域而言，我對中國電影業的快速增長印象深刻，我相信中國電影業的全球票房份額約為25%，是世界第二大電影業。顯然，這種增長是随着中國人均gdp和消費支出的增長而實作的，但它是通過促進對電影制作和發行的公共和私人投資而實作的。萬達院線和廣東大地數字電影院等連鎖影院的發展也令人印象深刻。我注意到電影這個行業已經從陳凱歌等導演的藝術類型作品和張藝謀早期在西方獲得很多贊譽的電影，發展到更受歡迎的電影和跨越多種類型的大片，包括大型預算的曆史作品、科幻和動畫。我認為，由于netflix等網際網路發行商的購買政策，他們獲得了《流浪地球》和其他電影的版權，是以全球對中國電影的興趣會有所增長。
in terms of the chinese cultural sector, i have been impressed by the rapid growth of the chinese film industry which i believe with a global box office share of around 25% is the second largest in the world. obviously, this growth has followed the growth in chinese gdp per capita and consumer spending, but it has been enabled by facilitating public as well as private investments in film making and distribution. the growth of cinema chains such as wanda cinema line and guangdong dadi digital cinemas has also been impressive. i note that the film sector has graduated from art type productions by directors such as chen kaige and the earlier films of zhang yimou which gained much acclaim in the west, to more popular films and blockbusters across a number of genre including big budget historical productions, science fiction and animation. i think there will be a growth in interest in chinese movies as a result of the buying policy of internet distributors such as netflix who acquired the rights to the wandering earth and other films.
龔鵬程
龔鵬程，1956年生于台北，台灣師範大學博士，當代著名學者和思想家。著作已出版一百五十多本。
辦有大學、出版社、雜志社、書院等，并規劃城市建設、主題園區等多處。講學于世界各地。并在北京、上海、杭州、台北、巴黎、日本、澳門等地舉辦過書法展。現為美國龔鵬程基金會主席。