#黄金分析##黄金##美元##俄乌战争##美元霸权#
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由于各国央行的强劲买盘，黄金价格近年来一直在上涨，主要原因是黄金日益被视为一种地缘政治对冲工具。
上周，国际货币基金组织的一位高级官员指出，全球经济和金融秩序的潜在碎片化在黄金价格上涨中起到推动作用。
国际货币基金组织副董事总经理吉塔·戈皮纳斯说：“经过包括新冠肺炎大流行和俄罗斯与乌克兰的战争等多年冲击，各国正基于经济和国家安全问题重新评估其贸易伙伴。”
她强调，特别是一些国家正在重新考虑它们在国际交易和外汇储备中对美元的严重依赖。
戈皮纳斯说，对黄金的需求有所上升，因为它被视为“政治中立的安全资产，可以储存在国内，不受制裁或扣押影响。”
世界黄金理事会在最近的一份报告中称，在2022年和2023年，各国中央银行每年购买了超过1000吨黄金，占全球黄金需求量的四分之一。
该委员会称，不少国家央行仍在继续购买黄金，今年第一季度抢购了290吨，是有记录以来最强劲的开局。
一、 作为对冲美元制裁风险的黄金
人们对美元在世界经济中的巨大影响与霸权的担忧已经存在多年。西方因俄罗斯与乌克兰的战争对俄罗斯实施前所未有的制裁，特别是将美元武器化进一步增添了去美元化的动力。
无可否认，美元在全球经济中的影响已经根深蒂固，大多数专家预计，在可预见的未来，它不会失去作为世界储备货币的主导地位。
但世界各地的一些国家，尤其是那些与中国站在一起的国家，正越来越多地通过增持替代资产，特别是黄金来对冲他们面临的政治风险。
戈皮纳斯表示，自2015年以来，“与中国站在一起的国家”外汇储备中的黄金份额一直在上升。
相比之下，“美国集团”国家外汇储备中的黄金份额大致稳定。
戈皮纳斯称，这表明，一些央行购买黄金可能是由于对制裁风险的担忧。
戈皮纳斯指出，就中国而言，黄金在其外汇储备中的份额从2015年的不到2%增加到了2023年的4.3%，其所持的美国财政部和机构债券比例则从占44%降至约30%。
二、尽管黄金价格高企，但各国央行仍将继续买入
在中国央行购买黄金一直占据新闻头条的同时，其他国家央行也在囤积黄金。世界黄金理事会在其最近的报告中写道，其他大型黄金买家包括土耳其和印度。
摩根大通的分析师在3月份的一份报告中写道，他们预计一些国家的央行今年将继续加快买入的步伐，而且“对价格不那么敏感”。这意味着今年的金价仍将可能会保持在高位。
可以肯定的是，持续的购金热并不仅仅是基于地缘政治。
金价目前的飙升也得益于美元走强，这促使一些新兴国家对冲因美元走强给其货币带来的风险。
现货黄金价格目前约为每盎司2,340美元，低于4月份的每盎司2,400美元以上的历史高点。
The US dollar has become so weaponized that central banks are snapping up politically-neutral gold. By Huileng Tan on Business Insider, May 14, 2024.
Gold prices are on a tear recently thanks to strong buying by central banks — a signal that the precious metal is increasingly seen as a geopolitical hedge.
Last week, a top International Monetary Fund official pointed to gold's role in a potential fragmentation of the global economic and financial order.
"After years of shocks — including the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia's invasion of Ukraine — countries are reevaluating their trading partners based on economic and national security concerns," said Gita Gopinath, an IMF deputy managing director
In particular, some countries are rethinking their heavy reliance on the US dollar in their international transactions and foreign reserve holdings, she said.
Demand for gold has risen because it's seen as a "politically neutral safe asset, which can be stored at home and be insulated from sanctions or seizure," said Gopinath.
Central banks accounted for one-quarter of gold demand in 2022 and 2023, as the institutions bought over 1,000 tons of gold each year, according to the World Gold Council in a recent report.
The world's central banks continued buying gold, snapping up 290 tons of gold in the first quarter of this year — the strongest start to any year on record, according to the council.
Gold as a hedge against US dollar-based sanctions risk
Concerns about the US dollar's outsized influence and power in the world economy have been brewing for years. The West's unprecedented slate of sanctions and weaponization of the dollar against Russia over the invasion of Ukraine have heightened the push for de-dollarization.
To be sure, the greenback is so entrenched in the global economy that most experts don't expect it to lose its dominance and status as the world's reserve currency in the foreseeable future.
But countries around the world — particularly those aligned with China — are increasingly hedging their political risks by loading up on alternative assets, and in particular, gold.
The share of gold in the foreign reserves of the "China bloc" has been rising since 2015, said IMF's Gopinath. Other than Russia, she did not name any other country in the "China bloc."
In contrast, the share of gold in the foreign reserves of countries in the "US bloc" has been broadly stable.
This suggests that gold purchases by some central banks may have been driven by concerns about sanctions risk, Gopinath said.
In China's case, the share of gold in its foreign exchange reserves increased from under 2% in 2015 to 4.3% in 2023. Meanwhile, its proportion of holdings of US Treasury and Agency bonds fell from 44% to about 30%, according to IMF's Gopinath.
Central banks will keep buying, despite high prices
While China's central bank gold buying has been hogging the headlines, other central banks are also loading up on gold. The World Gold Council wrote in its recent report that other big gold buyers included Turkey and India.
JPMorgan analysts wrote in a March report that they expect central banks to continue with their pace of buying this year while being "less sensitive to prices." This means gold prices are likely to stay high this year.
To be sure, the ongoing gold rush is not just based on geopolitics.
Gold's current price surge is also helped by a strong dollar, which is spurring some emerging countries to hedge their currency risks.
The spot gold price is currently around $2,340 an ounce, down from its record-high above $2,400 an ounce in April.