#黃金分析##黃金##美元##俄烏戰争##美元霸權#
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由于各國央行的強勁買盤，黃金價格近年來一直在上漲，主要原因是黃金日益被視為一種地緣政治對沖工具。
上周，國際貨币基金組織的一位進階官員指出，全球經濟和金融秩序的潛在碎片化在黃金價格上漲中起到推動作用。
國際貨币基金組織副董事總經理吉塔·戈皮納斯說：“經過包括新冠肺炎大流行和俄羅斯與烏克蘭的戰争等多年沖擊，各國正基于經濟和國家安全問題重新評估其貿易夥伴。”
她強調，特别是一些國家正在重新考慮它們在國際交易和外匯存底中對美元的嚴重依賴。
戈皮納斯說，對黃金的需求有所上升，因為它被視為“政治中立的安全資産，可以儲存在國内，不受制裁或扣押影響。”
世界黃金理事會在最近的一份報告中稱，在2022年和2023年，各國中央銀行每年購買了超過1000噸黃金，占全球黃金需求量的四分之一。
該委員會稱，不少國家央行仍在繼續購買黃金，今年第一季度搶購了290噸，是有記錄以來最強勁的開局。
一、 作為對沖美元制裁風險的黃金
人們對美元在世界經濟中的巨大影響與霸權的擔憂已經存在多年。西方因俄羅斯與烏克蘭的戰争對俄羅斯實施前所未有的制裁，特别是将美元武器化進一步增添了去美元化的動力。
無可否認，美元在全球經濟中的影響已經根深蒂固，大多數專家預計，在可預見的未來，它不會失去作為世界儲備貨币的主導地位。
但世界各地的一些國家，尤其是那些與中國站在一起的國家，正越來越多地通過增持替代資産，特别是黃金來對沖他們面臨的政治風險。
戈皮納斯表示，自2015年以來，“與中國站在一起的國家”外匯存底中的黃金份額一直在上升。
相比之下，“美國集團”國家外匯存底中的黃金份額大緻穩定。
戈皮納斯稱，這表明，一些央行購買黃金可能是由于對制裁風險的擔憂。
戈皮納斯指出，就中國而言，黃金在其外匯存底中的份額從2015年的不到2%增加到了2023年的4.3%，其所持的美國财政部和機構債券比例則從占44%降至約30%。
二、盡管黃金價格高企，但各國央行仍将繼續買入
在中國央行購買黃金一直占據新聞頭條的同時，其他國家央行也在囤積黃金。世界黃金理事會在其最近的報告中寫道，其他大型黃金買家包括土耳其和印度。
摩根大通的分析師在3月份的一份報告中寫道，他們預計一些國家的央行今年将繼續加快買入的步伐，而且“對價格不那麼敏感”。這意味着今年的金價仍将可能會保持在高位。
可以肯定的是，持續的購金熱并不僅僅是基于地緣政治。
金價目前的飙升也得益于美元走強，這促使一些新興國家對沖因美元走強給其貨币帶來的風險。
現貨黃金價格目前約為每盎司2,340美元，低于4月份的每盎司2,400美元以上的曆史高點。
The US dollar has become so weaponized that central banks are snapping up politically-neutral gold. By Huileng Tan on Business Insider, May 14, 2024.
Gold prices are on a tear recently thanks to strong buying by central banks — a signal that the precious metal is increasingly seen as a geopolitical hedge.
Last week, a top International Monetary Fund official pointed to gold's role in a potential fragmentation of the global economic and financial order.
"After years of shocks — including the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia's invasion of Ukraine — countries are reevaluating their trading partners based on economic and national security concerns," said Gita Gopinath, an IMF deputy managing director
In particular, some countries are rethinking their heavy reliance on the US dollar in their international transactions and foreign reserve holdings, she said.
Demand for gold has risen because it's seen as a "politically neutral safe asset, which can be stored at home and be insulated from sanctions or seizure," said Gopinath.
Central banks accounted for one-quarter of gold demand in 2022 and 2023, as the institutions bought over 1,000 tons of gold each year, according to the World Gold Council in a recent report.
The world's central banks continued buying gold, snapping up 290 tons of gold in the first quarter of this year — the strongest start to any year on record, according to the council.
Gold as a hedge against US dollar-based sanctions risk
Concerns about the US dollar's outsized influence and power in the world economy have been brewing for years. The West's unprecedented slate of sanctions and weaponization of the dollar against Russia over the invasion of Ukraine have heightened the push for de-dollarization.
To be sure, the greenback is so entrenched in the global economy that most experts don't expect it to lose its dominance and status as the world's reserve currency in the foreseeable future.
But countries around the world — particularly those aligned with China — are increasingly hedging their political risks by loading up on alternative assets, and in particular, gold.
The share of gold in the foreign reserves of the "China bloc" has been rising since 2015, said IMF's Gopinath. Other than Russia, she did not name any other country in the "China bloc."
In contrast, the share of gold in the foreign reserves of countries in the "US bloc" has been broadly stable.
This suggests that gold purchases by some central banks may have been driven by concerns about sanctions risk, Gopinath said.
In China's case, the share of gold in its foreign exchange reserves increased from under 2% in 2015 to 4.3% in 2023. Meanwhile, its proportion of holdings of US Treasury and Agency bonds fell from 44% to about 30%, according to IMF's Gopinath.
Central banks will keep buying, despite high prices
While China's central bank gold buying has been hogging the headlines, other central banks are also loading up on gold. The World Gold Council wrote in its recent report that other big gold buyers included Turkey and India.
JPMorgan analysts wrote in a March report that they expect central banks to continue with their pace of buying this year while being "less sensitive to prices." This means gold prices are likely to stay high this year.
To be sure, the ongoing gold rush is not just based on geopolitics.
Gold's current price surge is also helped by a strong dollar, which is spurring some emerging countries to hedge their currency risks.
The spot gold price is currently around $2,340 an ounce, down from its record-high above $2,400 an ounce in April.