印度太阳能热市场增长迹象
印度太阳能光热市场在 2023 年恢复到增长轨道，这在很大程度上可归因于克服 COVID 大流行。印度马拉维亚太阳能咨询公司进行的一项调查显示，与 2022 年相比，真空管集热器销量增长了 24%，平板集热器销量增长了 79%。太阳能热系统供应商估计售出1.34吉瓦（192万㎡），而 2023 年的釉面集热器面积为 1.06 GWth（152 万㎡） 在前一年。光伏价格的暴跌以及净计量系统继续使屋顶对太阳能发电更具吸引力。用于单户住宅的热虹吸系统在印度的太阳能热市场中占据主导地位。
照片：Malaviya Solar Energy Consultancy
该调查是在领先的真空管收集器供应商以及主要的平板和吸热器翅片制造商中进行的。下表显示了 2023 日历年根据真空管尺寸销售的真空管数量的细分情况。一家负责维护印度进口货物数据的授权市场研究机构根据四个HS编码（84191920、84199010、84199090和84191910）的进口统计数据验证了这些数字。
| 管子尺寸 | 估计编号已售出的管材数量 | 占真空管市场份额 | 每管面积 （㎡) | 总净面积（㎡） |
| 47 x 1500 mm | 15,937 | 0.25 % | 0.158 | 2,518 |
| 58 x 1800 mm | 3,165,343 | 50 % | 0.261 | 826,155 |
| 58 x 2100 mm | 3,133,638 | 50 % | 0.306 | 958,893 |
| 管总数 | 6,314,918 | 集热器总面积 | 1,787,566 |
2023 日历年进口到印度的真空管数据。售出630多万根管子，接近 179 万㎡集热器面积。
来源：Malaviya Solar Energy Consultancy
隶属于印度国家机构太阳能热能联合会的大多数集热器制造商将这一显着增长归因于 COVID 大流行后财务状况的缓解。但从长远来看，他们对业务可持续性持怀疑态度，因为光伏价格已经暴跌，并且在净计量计划下变得经济。来自电网的电力成本超过每千瓦时8个印度卢比 （INR），而光伏电力的成本略高于 3 印度卢比/千瓦时。“除非太阳能集热器在与光伏相同的竞争环境中购买，否则市场将继续面临挑战”，顾问Jaideep Malaviya在他的市场评估中总结道。
印度太阳能光热2007-2023年集热器细分市场情况。来源：Malaviya Solar Energy Consultancy
平板集热器行业可能会消失
一线希望是平板集热器市场的激增。该国的产量为135,065㎡，而2022年的产量为 75,572 ㎡，略高于2021年的151,267㎡。然而，该行业正面临压力，因为它没有销售所需的数量，除非需要加压系统。一些商业组织还使用平板集热器与热泵结合使用，以提供全天候热水。
热泵继续市场增长
热泵在商业和工业领域的发展势头迅猛。高温下的创新方法正迅速对工业、酒店和医院具有商业吸引力。随着光伏价格的大幅降低，实现无化石供暖在经济上正迅速变得可行。
平板集热器翅片管制造商Greentek India的董事总经理Sathya Kiran表示：“热泵市场已经在增加其可再生供暖的影响力。一旦它们的价格与光伏发电同步下降，它们将对太阳能热水器构成严峻的挑战，因为它们的效率和全年服务。
集中供热厂处于低水平
2023 年售出的聚光集热器面积约为 1,100㎡，略高于前三年——例如2022年的665㎡。然而，由于当时的投资成本补贴，与2016年高峰期相比，该市场仍远低于其潜力，新增聚光集热器面积为26,040㎡。 编译 陈讲运
2023 年安装的带有聚光集热器的新系统将用于非常不同的应用。Quadsun Solar 使用其只有 4个镜子的小型聚光盘收集器为汽车行业等产生太阳能工艺热量。项目开发商 Sunrise CSP 建造了第一个孔径面积为450㎡的大型碟形收集器，用于为医院提供蒸汽。在印度北部的拉达克地区，还安装了25个小盘子，每个盘子16㎡，用于烹饪。
Signs of growth in Indian solar thermal market
- Wed, 3 April 2024
The Indian solar thermal market recovered to a growth path in 2023 that can be largely attributed to overcoming the COVID pandemic. A survey carried out by the Indian Malaviya Solar Energy Consultancy revealed a respectable growth of 24 % in vacuum tube collector sales and 79 % increase in flat plate collector sales compared to 2022. Solar thermal system providers sold an estimated 1.34 GW (1.92 million m2) of glazed collector area in 2023 compared to 1.06 GWth (1.52 million m2) in the previous year. Crashing PV prices together with the net-metering system continue to make the roofs more attractive for solar electricity harvesting. Thermosiphon systems for single-family houses dominate the solar thermal market in India.
Photo: Malaviya Solar Energy Consultancy
The survey was carried out among leading vacuum tube collector suppliers and the major flat plate and absorber fin manufacturers. The following table shows the break-up in terms of number of vacuum tubes sold in the calendar year 2023 according to the size of the tubes. An authorized market research agency that maintains data on imported goods in India validated the figures according to import statistics under the four HS codes (84191920, 84199010, 84199090 and 84191910).
| Size of tube | Estimated No. of tubes sold | Share of tube size among total vacuum tube market | Area per tube (m2) | Total net area (m2) |
| 47 x 1500 mm | 15,937 | 0.25 % | 0.158 | 2,518 |
| 58 x 1800 mm | 3,165,343 | 50 % | 0.261 | 826,155 |
| 58 x 2100 mm | 3,133,638 | 50 % | 0.306 | 958,893 |
| Total number of tubes | 6,314,918 | Total absorber area | 1,787,566 |
Data for vacuum tubes imported to India in the calendar year 2023. A little over 6.3 million tubes were sold, making close to 1.79 million m2 of collector area.
Source: Malaviya Solar Energy Consultancy
The majority of collector manufacturers belonging to the national body Solar Thermal Federation of India attribute this significant growth to the easing of the financial situation post COVID pandemic. But they are sceptical regarding business sustainability in the longer term as PV prices have already crashed and become economical under the net-metering scheme. Power from the grid costs in excess of 8 Indian Rupees (INR) per kWh against the cost of PV electricity at a little over 3 INR/kWh. “Unless solar collectors are bought on the same level playing field as PV, the markets will continue to face challenges”, concluded Consultant Jaideep Malaviya in his market assessment.
Indian solar thermal market 2007 to 2023 divided into collector technologies. Source: Malaviya Solar Energy Consultancy
Flat plate collector industry might vanish
A silver lining is the surge in the flat plate collector market. The country produced 135,065 m2 against 75,572 m2 produced in 2022, a bit more than in 2021 with 151,267 m2. However, the industry is under stress as it does not sell the desired volumes, except wherever pressurized systems are needed. A few commercial organizations are also using flat plate collectors in combination with heat pumps for round-the-clock hot water.
Heat pumps continue their market growth
Heat pumps are witnessing a surge in the commercial and industrial sector. Innovative approaches with higher temperatures are fast becoming commercially attractive to industry, hospitality and hospitals. With the much lower prices for PV it is fast becoming economically viable to have fossil-free heating.
Sathya Kiran, Managing Director of Greentek India, manufacturer of fin-tubes for flat plate collectors said that “the heat pump market is already growing its presence for renewable heating. Once their prices drop in line with PV they will present a tough challenge to solar water heaters owing to their efficiency and round-the-year service.”
Concentrating heat plants on a low level
The area of concentrating collectors sold in 2023 of around 1,100 m2 was slightly higher than in the three previous years – for example 665 m2 in 2022. However, this market remained well below its potential compared to the peak year 2016 with 26,040 m2 of new concentrating collector area due to the investment cost subsidy at the time.
The new systems installed in 2023 with concentrating collectors are being used for very different applications. Quadsun Solar has used its small concentrating dish collectors with only 4 mirrors to create solar process heat for the automotive industry, among other things. The project developer Sunrise CSP has built the first large dish collector with an aperture area of 450 m2 to supply steam to a hospital. There were also 25 small dishes with 16 m2 each installed for cooking in the Ladakh region in Northern India.