#国产大飞机C919##波音##空客#
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近几个月来，波音公司的飞机因屡出故障一直成为人们关注的焦点。
今年1月，阿拉斯加航空公司的一架737 Max 9飞机在起飞到半空中时一块金属板从机身掉落，使波音公司的安全标准和领导层再次成为了人们关注的前沿和中心。此后，波音公司的生产与交付速度进一步落后于商用飞机的另一个市场领导者、设在德国的竞争对手空客。
搜寻者找到波音飞机掉落的金属门
当这家总部位于西雅图的飞机制造商寻找新的首席执行官和处理事故后果时，人们还开始讨论是否会有第三家商业飞机竞争者，特别是由中国政府支持的中国商飞能否打入空客和波音主导的全球航空市场。
中国商飞这家总部位于中国的航空公司十多年来一直在努力制造一架具有挑战性的商用飞机，从而攻入波音和空客的堡垒。中国商飞的规模目前仍然很小，因为它目前只有5架飞机由中国最大的航空公司之一东方航空公司运营。但是，由于旅行需求高、波音的地位不稳定，以及C919上个月在新加坡的首次亮相，都表明目前的航空市场现状对希望分一块蛋糕的中国商飞有利。
一、中国商飞简况
这家中国集团公司于2008年开始研发窄体客机，三年后开始生产。它的C919飞机现在被视为波音737和空客320客机的可能竞争对手。C919于2022年9月获得中国航空管理局的认证，并于一年前在中国国内交付了第一架商业运营的飞机。
这家飞机制造商的目标一直是打破两个商业飞机巨头的垄断，航空业高管也已经认识到中国商飞作为竞争对手的潜力。航空咨询公司IBA估计，2024年中国商飞将交付9架飞机--不到波音每月交付量的三分之一，这表明这家中国集团公司仍面临的艰巨任务。
但它已经获得一些航空公司的更多兴趣，在其将目光投向世界其他地区之前，它可能会在中国和亚洲其他地区获得市场份额。
IBA公司估值和咨询总监迈克·约曼斯告诉《财富》杂志：“波音公司面临的挑战让人们更多地关注中国商飞所面临的机遇。问题是，中国商飞能否利用波音在短期内的弱势地位？”
据IBA估计，中国商飞将可能夺得全球窄体飞机交付量的4%，到2030年时其市场份额将略高于1%。虽然此后可能需要数年时间才能增加，但波音的不确定性和旅行需求将对这位新入局者提供帮助。空客也将从这一趋势中受益，因为它正从波音的危机中获得更多市场份额。
约曼斯还指出：“随着空客和波音的窄体客机在这十年的大部分时间里都已售罄，C919有很好的机会获得市场份额，尤其是在其国内市场。”
目前尚不清楚波音公司的困境是否直接支撑了人们对中国商飞飞机的需求。
二、中国商飞会很快取得进步吗？
虽然目前中国商飞面临的推动力比以前更多，但它面临的最大挑战之一是获得中国以外的主要权威机构的认证。这家总部位于中国的集团公司目前在国际航空市场的影响力相当有限，尤其是因为它尚未获得美国和欧洲航空监管机构的认证，约曼斯说，如果它想从“目前全球窄体客机市场双垄断寡头”手中抢夺市场份额，这是至关重要的。
另一个挥之不去的问题是，如果需求增长，中国商飞是否能应对扩大生产的挑战。
C919参加新加坡航展
奥尔顿航空咨询公司的约翰·莫里在接受《财富》杂志采访时表示：“在一定时间内，中国商飞的产量将保持在低位。因此我们预计，它在短期内的产能无法显著改变空客、波音和中国商飞之间的现状。”不过，他补充说，从中长期来看，窄体飞机市场存在“巨大的需求”空间。
中国商飞在质量控制、及时交付等方面对现有和潜在客户的成绩，将可能决定它是否在未来能打破德国和美国同行所分享的控制权。
“它将在多大程度上取代空客和波音的订单，将取决于其所交付的飞机在首个运营商东航的表现和可靠性，以及其他未来它将交付给其他航空公司的飞机的可靠性。”
尽管有所有这些怀疑，但中国商飞正在酝酿一些事情——它公布了两种正在研发的C919S型客机，并在2月份收到了来自西藏航空公司的50架飞机订单。中国商飞可能还需要一段时间才能打破双头垄断，但目前它的一个小脚似乎已经踏进大门。
Airbus and Boeing clearly dominate the commercial aircrafts—but the future could look different if China’s COMAC emerges a dark horse. By Prarthana Prakash, on Fortune, April 8, 2024.
Boeing has been in the spotlight for all the wrong reasons in recent months.
When a panel flew out of its Alaska Airlines 737 Max 9 plane mid-air in January, the safety standards and leadership at Boeing became front-and-center. It’s since seen a slower pace of production and deliveries have further slipped behind for the market leader and its German rival, Airbus.
As the Seattle-based aircraft maker deals with the fallout from the accident while navigating its search for a new CEO, it’s prompted discussions on whether a third contender could fly into a global aviation market dominated by Airbus and Boeing—notably, Chinese state-backed COMAC.
The China-based airline maker has been working for well over a decade to build a challenger commercial aircraft that can shake up Boeing and Airbus’s stronghold. COMAC is still small, given that only five of its aircraft are flown by one of the country’s biggest carriers, China Eastern Airlines. But a shortage of planes amid high travel demand, shaky standing for Boeing, and C919’s grand debut in Singapore last month all point to an opening in the aviation market that could work in COMAC’s favor as it eyes a slice of the aviation pie.
What’s COMAC all about?
The Chinese group first began working on its narrowbody airliner in 2008, and production began three years after. Its C919 jets are now seen as possible competitors to Boeing’s 737s as well as Airbus’s 320 liners. They were certified by the aviation authority in China in Sep. 2022, and flew their first planes commercially within its home-country a year ago.
The aircraft maker’s goal has always been to unseat the two behemoths, and top airline industry executives have recognized COMAC’s potential as a competitor. In 2024, aviation consultancy IBA estimates that COMAC will deliver nine jets—that’s less than a third of Boeing’s monthly deliveries, pointing to the tall task the Chinese group faces.
But it’s already receiving more interest from airline companies, and could gain share within China and the rest of Asia before setting its eyes on the rest of the world.
“The challenges Boeing is facing have brought more focus on the opportunities that lie ahead for COMAC. The question is can COMAC take advantage of Boeing's weakened position in the near-term?” Mike Yeomans, director of valuations and consulting at IBA, told Fortune.
IBA’s estimates point to COMAC grabbing 4% of global narrowbody deliveries, giving it a little over 1% of the market share by 2030. While that may take years to ramp up thereafter, it’s a start helped by Boeing’s uncertainties and the appetite for travel. Airbus has also benefited from these trends, as it’s gained market share amid the ongoing crisis.
Yeomans also noted that with Airbus and Boeing’s narrowbodies sold out for much of this decade, “the C919 has a strong opportunity to gain market share, particularly in its domestic market.”
It’s still unclear if Boeing’s woes have directly propped up demand for COMAC’s aircraft.
Will COMAC make strides… soon?
While there are more tailwinds for COMAC now than before, one of the biggest challenges for COMAC is getting certified by major authorities outside China. The China-based group’s influence is fairly limited for now especially because it isn’t certified with U.S. and European regulators, and that’s critical if it hopes to be “a credible threat to the current duopoly in the global narrowbody market” Yeomans said.
Another lingering question is whether COMAC is up to the challenge of scaling up production if demand grows.
“COMAC production rates have been far lower and inconsistent over time, and so we would not anticipate significant near-term ability to dramatically shift the dynamics,” John Mowry from Alton Aviation Consulting told Fortune, referring to the power dynamics between Airbus, Boeing and COMAC. However, he added that in the medium and long-term there’s scope for “significant demand” in the narrowbody aircraft market.
The mark COMAC makes with its current and upcoming customers in terms of quality control, timely delivery and more could also determine whether it has a future in breaking up the control shared by its German and American counterparts.
“The extent to which it displaces opportunities for Airbus and Boeing will depend on its in-service performance and reliability at launch operator China Eastern, and others as they start to take deliveries.”
All the skepticism aside, things are brewing at COMAC—it revealed two types of C919s that are in the works and received 50 jet orders from Tibet Airlines in February. It could be a while before COMAC breaks a duopoly up, but it seems to have gotten a tiny foot in the door for now.