#國産大飛機C919##波音##空客#
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近幾個月來，波音公司的飛機因屢出故障一直成為人們關注的焦點。
今年1月，阿拉斯加航空公司的一架737 Max 9飛機在起飛到半空中時一塊金屬闆從機身掉落，使波音公司的安全标準和上司層再次成為了人們關注的前沿和中心。此後，波音公司的生産與傳遞速度進一步落後于商用飛機的另一個市場上司者、設在德國的競争對手空客。
搜尋者找到波音飛機掉落的金屬門
當這家總部位于西雅圖的飛機制造商尋找新的首席執行官和處理事故後果時，人們還開始讨論是否會有第三家商業飛機競争者，特别是由中國政府支援的中國商飛能否打入空客和波音主導的全球航空市場。
中國商飛這家總部位于中國的航空公司十多年來一直在努力制造一架具有挑戰性的商用飛機，進而攻入波音和空客的堡壘。中國商飛的規模目前仍然很小，因為它目前隻有5架飛機由中國最大的航空公司之一東方航空公司營運。但是，由于旅行需求高、波音的地位不穩定，以及C919上個月在新加坡的首次亮相，都表明目前的航空市場現狀對希望分一塊蛋糕的中國商飛有利。
一、中國商飛簡況
這家中國集團公司于2008年開始研發窄體客機，三年後開始生産。它的C919飛機現在被視為波音737和空客320客機的可能競争對手。C919于2022年9月獲得中國航空管理局的認證，并于一年前在中國國内傳遞了第一架商業營運的飛機。
這家飛機制造商的目标一直是打破兩個商業飛機巨頭的壟斷，航空業高管也已經認識到中國商飛作為競争對手的潛力。航空咨詢公司IBA估計，2024年中國商飛将傳遞9架飛機--不到波音每月傳遞量的三分之一，這表明這家中國集團公司仍面臨的艱巨任務。
但它已經獲得一些航空公司的更多興趣，在其将目光投向世界其他地區之前，它可能會在中國和亞洲其他地區獲得市場佔有率。
IBA公司估值和咨詢總監邁克·約曼斯告訴《财富》雜志：“波音公司面臨的挑戰讓人們更多地關注中國商飛所面臨的機遇。問題是，中國商飛能否利用波音在短期内的弱勢地位？”
據IBA估計，中國商飛将可能奪得全球窄體飛機傳遞量的4%，到2030年時其市場佔有率将略高于1%。雖然此後可能需要數年時間才能增加，但波音的不确定性和旅行需求将對這位新入局者提供幫助。空客也将從這一趨勢中受益，因為它正從波音的危機中獲得更多市場佔有率。
約曼斯還指出：“随着空客和波音的窄體客機在這十年的大部分時間裡都已售罄，C919有很好的機會獲得市場佔有率，尤其是在其國内市場。”
目前尚不清楚波音公司的困境是否直接支撐了人們對中國商飛飛機的需求。
二、中國商飛會很快取得進步嗎？
雖然目前中國商飛面臨的推動力比以前更多，但它面臨的最大挑戰之一是獲得中國以外的主要權威機構的認證。這家總部位于中國的集團公司目前在國際航空市場的影響力相當有限，尤其是因為它尚未獲得美國和歐洲航空監管機構的認證，約曼斯說，如果它想從“目前全球窄體客機市場雙壟斷寡頭”手中搶奪市場佔有率，這是至關重要的。
另一個揮之不去的問題是，如果需求增長，中國商飛是否能應對擴大生産的挑戰。
C919參加新加坡航展
奧爾頓航空咨詢公司的約翰·莫裡在接受《财富》雜志采訪時表示：“在一定時間内，中國商飛的産量将保持在低位。是以我們預計，它在短期内的産能無法顯著改變空客、波音和中國商飛之間的現狀。”不過，他補充說，從中長期來看，窄體飛機市場存在“巨大的需求”空間。
中國商飛在品質控制、及時傳遞等方面對現有和潛在客戶的成績，将可能決定它是否在未來能打破德國和美國同行所分享的控制權。
“它将在多大程度上取代空客和波音的訂單，将取決于其所傳遞的飛機在首個營運商東航的表現和可靠性，以及其他未來它将傳遞給其他航空公司的飛機的可靠性。”
盡管有所有這些懷疑，但中國商飛正在醞釀一些事情——它公布了兩種正在研發的C919S型客機，并在2月份收到了來自西藏航空公司的50架飛機訂單。中國商飛可能還需要一段時間才能打破雙頭壟斷，但目前它的一個小腳似乎已經踏進大門。
Airbus and Boeing clearly dominate the commercial aircrafts—but the future could look different if China’s COMAC emerges a dark horse. By Prarthana Prakash, on Fortune, April 8, 2024.
Boeing has been in the spotlight for all the wrong reasons in recent months.
When a panel flew out of its Alaska Airlines 737 Max 9 plane mid-air in January, the safety standards and leadership at Boeing became front-and-center. It’s since seen a slower pace of production and deliveries have further slipped behind for the market leader and its German rival, Airbus.
As the Seattle-based aircraft maker deals with the fallout from the accident while navigating its search for a new CEO, it’s prompted discussions on whether a third contender could fly into a global aviation market dominated by Airbus and Boeing—notably, Chinese state-backed COMAC.
The China-based airline maker has been working for well over a decade to build a challenger commercial aircraft that can shake up Boeing and Airbus’s stronghold. COMAC is still small, given that only five of its aircraft are flown by one of the country’s biggest carriers, China Eastern Airlines. But a shortage of planes amid high travel demand, shaky standing for Boeing, and C919’s grand debut in Singapore last month all point to an opening in the aviation market that could work in COMAC’s favor as it eyes a slice of the aviation pie.
What’s COMAC all about?
The Chinese group first began working on its narrowbody airliner in 2008, and production began three years after. Its C919 jets are now seen as possible competitors to Boeing’s 737s as well as Airbus’s 320 liners. They were certified by the aviation authority in China in Sep. 2022, and flew their first planes commercially within its home-country a year ago.
The aircraft maker’s goal has always been to unseat the two behemoths, and top airline industry executives have recognized COMAC’s potential as a competitor. In 2024, aviation consultancy IBA estimates that COMAC will deliver nine jets—that’s less than a third of Boeing’s monthly deliveries, pointing to the tall task the Chinese group faces.
But it’s already receiving more interest from airline companies, and could gain share within China and the rest of Asia before setting its eyes on the rest of the world.
“The challenges Boeing is facing have brought more focus on the opportunities that lie ahead for COMAC. The question is can COMAC take advantage of Boeing's weakened position in the near-term?” Mike Yeomans, director of valuations and consulting at IBA, told Fortune.
IBA’s estimates point to COMAC grabbing 4% of global narrowbody deliveries, giving it a little over 1% of the market share by 2030. While that may take years to ramp up thereafter, it’s a start helped by Boeing’s uncertainties and the appetite for travel. Airbus has also benefited from these trends, as it’s gained market share amid the ongoing crisis.
Yeomans also noted that with Airbus and Boeing’s narrowbodies sold out for much of this decade, “the C919 has a strong opportunity to gain market share, particularly in its domestic market.”
It’s still unclear if Boeing’s woes have directly propped up demand for COMAC’s aircraft.
Will COMAC make strides… soon?
While there are more tailwinds for COMAC now than before, one of the biggest challenges for COMAC is getting certified by major authorities outside China. The China-based group’s influence is fairly limited for now especially because it isn’t certified with U.S. and European regulators, and that’s critical if it hopes to be “a credible threat to the current duopoly in the global narrowbody market” Yeomans said.
Another lingering question is whether COMAC is up to the challenge of scaling up production if demand grows.
“COMAC production rates have been far lower and inconsistent over time, and so we would not anticipate significant near-term ability to dramatically shift the dynamics,” John Mowry from Alton Aviation Consulting told Fortune, referring to the power dynamics between Airbus, Boeing and COMAC. However, he added that in the medium and long-term there’s scope for “significant demand” in the narrowbody aircraft market.
The mark COMAC makes with its current and upcoming customers in terms of quality control, timely delivery and more could also determine whether it has a future in breaking up the control shared by its German and American counterparts.
“The extent to which it displaces opportunities for Airbus and Boeing will depend on its in-service performance and reliability at launch operator China Eastern, and others as they start to take deliveries.”
All the skepticism aside, things are brewing at COMAC—it revealed two types of C919s that are in the works and received 50 jet orders from Tibet Airlines in February. It could be a while before COMAC breaks a duopoly up, but it seems to have gotten a tiny foot in the door for now.