沪指临近3000点，当如何操作？

今天上午，沪指突破前期筹码密集区，向3000点进发。信息面上，四大量化私募之一的宁波灵均因为短时间内大量卖出股票导致指数下跌被沪深交易所实施暂停交易措施并启动公开谴责程序，小作文开始吹暂停IPO，均有利于提振市场情绪；资金面上，北向资金大举流入。于是，有朋友问我，是否还觉得3000点难冲？

1月份，我们曾经提出，春节前后会有一波春季躁动，预计反弹持续两三周，最低2900点，3000点难度较大。目前维持观点不变。保守的投资者可以减仓；稳健的投资者等趋势反转，卖在次高点即可，但建议降低成长板块头寸，增配低估值、高股息头寸。我们属于后者。

为什么3000点很难？

​原因和2900点攻防战的逻辑类似。首先，中国经济基本面没变，这是反弹而不是反转，因而上涨能量有限。其次，任何事物都有两面性，下跌时的支撑会成为上涨时的阻力。上证十年3000点，攻坚之难可以预见。除非是国家队出手，集中火力一鼓作气突破上去，否则市场自发的减仓力量必然导致触顶回落。国家队有支援但力量不足的情况下，也许二次进攻，M顶回落。

反弹遇阻，能量自然耗尽的情况下，小盘成长依然会有机会。突发利空的话，可能只有高股息、低估值板块有系统性机会。

板块方面，热点轮动较快。19日人工智能领涨，20日减肥药领涨，今日上午量化私募重点策略标的低价小市值领涨，汽车、银行、食品饮料领涨体现了2月行业普涨的特点。人工智能主要受到美股影响，因为美国投资者在等待

明日凌晨英伟达发布2024财年第四财季财报，美股人工智能板块大幅回调。我们本来预期美股3月回调，如果美股因此进入一段较长的回调期，A股成长板块也可能受到冲击。稳健的投资者可以采取哑铃形策略，一半高股息，一半人工智能等成长板块。

策略水准：

2019年预判中国人口最快可能2022年开始负增长、地产大周期下行，黄金慢牛，美国2020年衰退。

2022年3月看好能源板块，政策底没到，随着降准降息的落地会开启mini2020版行情。9月提出规避中美脱钩风险。9月底到11月初大力呼吁加仓迎接一年中最赚钱的季节。预判11月降准给地产金融带来反弹机会，12月疫情优化后满仓迎接A股上涨，并看对12月下半月疫情对A股的冲击。

2023年1月看好光伏，2月提出看好人工智能、压铸一体化。4月提出人工智能只是主题性机会，Tmt存在调整压力。从康波周期角度看好煤炭板块的长期机会。8月在意识到市场高估地产形势后，认定股市下行，建议投资高分红板块防御。9月提示一线房价与股市稀缺资产的下跌风险。10月在私募的朋友认为3000点是股市底部时，提示股市没有到底。

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rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px) and (prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--appmsgExtra-BG: #121212}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not([data-weui-theme=light]).my_comment_empty_data{background-color:#111}}body,.wx-root{--weui-BG-6: rgba(0, 0, 0, .05);--weui-ACTIVE-MASK: rgba(0, 0, 0, .05)}body,.wx-root{--weui-REDORANGE: #ff6146;--weui-BG-0: #ededed;--weui-BG-1: #f7f7f7;--weui-BG-2: #fff;--weui-BG-3: #f7f7f7;--weui-BG-4: #4c4c4c;--weui-BG-5: #fff;--weui-FG-0: rgba(0, 0, 0, .9);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(0, 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.6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--appmsgExtra-BG: #121212}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not([data-weui-theme=light]) .rich_media_content img:not(.wx_img_placeholder){filter:brightness(.8)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) :root{--appmsgPageGap: 20px;--appmsgPageBottomGap: 40px}}:root{--articleFontsize: 17px}:root{--sab: env(safe-area-inset-bottom)}:root{--wxBorderAvatarRatio: 3}:root{--discussPageGap: 20px}:root{--immersive-safe-bottom: env(safe-area-inset-bottom)}:root{--appmsgPageGap: 20px;--appmsgPageBottomGap: 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div.autoTypeSetting24psection > p,div.autoTypeSetting24psection > section{margin-bottom: 24px;}