滬指臨近3000點，當如何操作？

今天上午，滬指突破前期籌碼密集區，向3000點進發。資訊面上，四大量化私募之一的甯波靈均因為短時間内大量賣出股票導緻指數下跌被滬深交易所實施暫停交易措施并啟動公開譴責程式，小作文開始吹暫停IPO，均有利于提振市場情緒；資金面上，北向資金大舉流入。于是，有朋友問我，是否還覺得3000點難沖？

1月份，我們曾經提出，春節前後會有一波春季躁動，預計反彈持續兩三周，最低2900點，3000點難度較大。目前維持觀點不變。保守的投資者可以減倉；穩健的投資者等趨勢反轉，賣在次高點即可，但建議降低成長闆塊頭寸，增配低估值、高股息頭寸。我們屬于後者。

為什麼3000點很難？

​原因和2900點攻防戰的邏輯類似。首先，中國經濟基本面沒變，這是反彈而不是反轉，因而上漲能量有限。其次，任何事物都有兩面性，下跌時的支撐會成為上漲時的阻力。上證十年3000點，攻堅之難可以預見。除非是國家隊出手，集中火力一鼓作氣突破上去，否則市場自發的減倉力量必然導緻觸頂回落。國家隊有支援但力量不足的情況下，也許二次進攻，M頂回落。

反彈遇阻，能量自然耗盡的情況下，小盤成長依然會有機會。突發利空的話，可能隻有高股息、低估值闆塊有系統性機會。

闆塊方面，熱點輪動較快。19日人工智能領漲，20日減肥藥領漲，今日上午量化私募重點政策标的低價小市值領漲，汽車、銀行、食品飲料領漲展現了2月行業普漲的特點。人工智能主要受到美股影響，因為美國投資者在等待

明日淩晨英偉達釋出2024财年第四财季财報，美股人工智能闆塊大幅回調。我們本來預期美股3月回調，如果美股是以進入一段較長的回調期，A股成長闆塊也可能受到沖擊。穩健的投資者可以采取啞鈴形政策，一半高股息，一半人工智能等成長闆塊。

政策水準：

2019年預判中國人口最快可能2022年開始負增長、地産大周期下行，黃金慢牛，美國2020年衰退。

2022年3月看好能源闆塊，政策底沒到，随着降準降息的落地會開啟mini2020版行情。9月提出規避中美脫鈎風險。9月底到11月初大力呼籲加倉迎接一年中最賺錢的季節。預判11月降準給地産金融帶來反彈機會，12月疫情優化後滿倉迎接A股上漲，并看對12月下半月疫情對A股的沖擊。

2023年1月看好光伏，2月提出看好人工智能、壓鑄一體化。4月提出人工智能隻是主題性機會，Tmt存在調整壓力。從康波周期角度看好煤炭闆塊的長期機會。8月在意識到市場高估地産形勢後，認定股市下行，建議投資高分紅闆塊防禦。9月提示一線房價與股市稀缺資産的下跌風險。10月在私募的朋友認為3000點是股市底部時，提示股市沒有到底。

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rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px) and (prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--appmsgExtra-BG: #121212}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not([data-weui-theme=light]).my_comment_empty_data{background-color:#111}}body,.wx-root{--weui-BG-6: rgba(0, 0, 0, .05);--weui-ACTIVE-MASK: rgba(0, 0, 0, .05)}body,.wx-root{--weui-REDORANGE: #ff6146;--weui-BG-0: #ededed;--weui-BG-1: #f7f7f7;--weui-BG-2: #fff;--weui-BG-3: #f7f7f7;--weui-BG-4: #4c4c4c;--weui-BG-5: #fff;--weui-FG-0: rgba(0, 0, 0, .9);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(0, 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.6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--appmsgExtra-BG: #121212}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not([data-weui-theme=light]) .rich_media_content img:not(.wx_img_placeholder){filter:brightness(.8)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) :root{--appmsgPageGap: 20px;--appmsgPageBottomGap: 40px}}:root{--articleFontsize: 17px}:root{--sab: env(safe-area-inset-bottom)}:root{--wxBorderAvatarRatio: 3}:root{--discussPageGap: 20px}:root{--immersive-safe-bottom: env(safe-area-inset-bottom)}:root{--appmsgPageGap: 20px;--appmsgPageBottomGap: 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div.autoTypeSetting24psection > p,div.autoTypeSetting24psection > section{margin-bottom: 24px;}