小镇青年，被困印度股市

印度股市在2023年，创下八年连涨纪录，市值突破4万亿美元，且从趋势上看，依旧延续强劲表现。

对于印度股市上涨的基本面分析，见闻vip在《躺在赤字上的印度股市》一文中指出过，的确是有基本面的支持。

但除了基本面的支撑，值得关注的其实是印度股市中，衍生品交易的占比。从全球的横向比较来看，印度股市中衍生品名义价值同现金的比值超过400%，远超第二名韩国。

而韩国散户是出了名的高风险偏好。作为一个人口小国，韩国的KOSPI200指数期货交易量一度居全球第三，期权交易量位居全球第一。而现在，在印度股市面前，根本不止一提。

其次，成交幅度看，印度股市的杠杆交易，依旧处于快速增长过程中。呈现一年翻翻的增长趋势。

而印度投资者偏好杠杆交易，主要包括如下几点：

年轻人赌性坚强

首先就印度整个国家的人口年龄结构而言，整体而言相当年轻，2022年印度全国人口平均年龄只有28岁，且社会处于高速发生期，但是人均收入又偏低，2022年人均名义GDP只有2400美元。

年轻人多，收入低，又想财富开始增长。怎么办？那就去股市加杠杆。本身年轻人的风险偏好就要高于中老年人。

无论是2000的韩国，还是1970年日本，当年轻人口高占比时期，其实有利于市场估值上升，投资活跃度攀升。

而根据Axis Capital的数据，印度股市的期权交易能够为投资者提供400倍的杠杆交易。

而这吸引了大量的印度小镇青年，据印度本地的一家大型折扣交易平台数据，65%的客户是第一次交易，60%的新账户来自于小镇居民，而平均年龄是29岁。

为信仰充值

印度股市从表现上，的确可圈可点。2016年至今，年线每年都收涨。这在全球主流市场来看，是没有的。

即便强如纳斯达克，拥有众多科巨头，同期也有两年收跌，分别是2018年跟2022年。特别是2022年，纳斯达克指数跌幅超33%。

而印度股市如此长期的上涨，也进步增强了投资者对市场上涨的预期，坚信印度股市是台永动机。

强烈的上涨预期下，加深了投资者参与市场博弈的信息。

特别是中小投资，普遍偏好深度虚值期权。投入金额小，能够实现以小博大。

互联网的快速渗透

互联网的快速发展，为期权交易提供了大幅的便利。特别是基础设施领域本就薄弱的印度，早年依赖于电话交易、营业厅看行情的模式已经被打破。

众多的印度农村人口一部手机就能下单。而从互联网渗透率看，特别是2020年新冠疫情爆发后，印度互联网人口加速攀升。同期，2020年之后，印度衍生品交易迎来爆发增长。

预计到2024年，互联网人口将达到14亿，实现真正意义上的“全覆盖”。

现实是残酷的

但是现实却是残酷的，期权交易作为一个零和博弈，散户是普遍亏损的。

根据印度官方监管机构的分析，股票期货期权交易领域，在19、22年，10个交易者有9个交易者是亏损的。

2022年，期权亏损账户的平均亏损金额是50000卢比，相当于600美金。而印度的人均GDP是2400美金。

假如扣除各项税费之后，基本生活开销，印度的打工青年们基本把剩下的所有都给了印度股市。

岁寒知松柏

对话国泰基金胡松

国泰基金x华尔街见闻

2024年1月10日19:00

重磅上线

本文不构成个人投资建议，不代表平台观点，市场有风险，投资需谨慎，请独立判断和决策。

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rgba(255, 255, 255, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #c87d2f;--weui-YELLOW: #cc9c00;--weui-GREEN: #74a800;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #3eb575;--weui-BRAND: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1196ff;--weui-PURPLE: #8183ff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) 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div.autoTypeSetting24psection > p,div.autoTypeSetting24psection > section{margin-bottom: 24px;}