小鎮青年，被困印度股市

印度股市在2023年，創下八年連漲紀錄，市值突破4萬億美元，且從趨勢上看，依舊延續強勁表現。

對于印度股市上漲的基本面分析，見聞vip在《躺在赤字上的印度股市》一文中指出過，的确是有基本面的支援。

但除了基本面的支撐，值得關注的其實是印度股市中，衍生品交易的占比。從全球的橫向比較來看，印度股市中衍生品名義價值同現金的比值超過400%，遠超第二名南韓。

而南韓散戶是出了名的高風險偏好。作為一個人口小國，南韓的KOSPI200指數期貨交易量一度居全球第三，期權交易量位居全球第一。而現在，在印度股市面前，根本不止一提。

其次，成交幅度看，印度股市的杠杆交易，依舊處于快速增長過程中。呈現一年翻翻的增長趨勢。

而印度投資者偏好杠杆交易，主要包括如下幾點：

年輕人賭性堅強

首先就印度整個國家的人口年齡結構而言，整體而言相當年輕，2022年印度全國人口平均年齡隻有28歲，且社會處于高速發生期，但是個人所得又偏低，2022年人均名義GDP隻有2400美元。

年輕人多，收入低，又想财富開始增長。怎麼辦？那就去股市加杠杆。本身年輕人的風險偏好就要高于中老年人。

無論是2000的南韓，還是1970年日本，當年輕人口高占比時期，其實有利于市場估值上升，投資活躍度攀升。

而根據Axis Capital的資料，印度股市的期權交易能夠為投資者提供400倍的杠杆交易。

而這吸引了大量的印度小鎮青年，據印度本地的一家大型折扣交易平台資料，65%的客戶是第一次交易，60%的新賬戶來自于小鎮居民，而平均年齡是29歲。

為信仰充值

印度股市從表現上，的确可圈可點。2016年至今，年線每年都收漲。這在全球主流市場來看，是沒有的。

即便強如納斯達克，擁有衆多科巨頭，同期也有兩年收跌，分别是2018年跟2022年。特别是2022年，納斯達克指數跌幅超33%。

而印度股市如此長期的上漲，也進步增強了投資者對市場上漲的預期，堅信印度股市是台永動機。

強烈的上漲預期下，加深了投資者參與市場博弈的資訊。

特别是中小投資，普遍偏好深度虛值期權。投入金額小，能夠實作以小博大。

網際網路的快速滲透

網際網路的快速發展，為期權交易提供了大幅的便利。特别是基礎設施領域本就薄弱的印度，早年依賴于電話交易、營業廳看行情的模式已經被打破。

衆多的印度農村人口一部手機就能下單。而從網際網路滲透率看，特别是2020年新冠疫情爆發後，印度網際網路人口加速攀升。同期，2020年之後，印度衍生品交易迎來爆發增長。

預計到2024年，網際網路人口将達到14億，實作真正意義上的“全覆寫”。

現實是殘酷的

但是現實卻是殘酷的，期權交易作為一個零和博弈，散戶是普遍虧損的。

根據印度官方監管機構的分析，股票期貨期權交易領域，在19、22年，10個交易者有9個交易者是虧損的。

2022年，期權虧損賬戶的平均虧損金額是50000盧比，相當于600美金。而印度的人均GDP是2400美金。

假如扣除各項稅費之後，基本生活開銷，印度的打工青年們基本把剩下的所有都給了印度股市。

歲寒知松柏

對話國泰基金胡松

國泰基金x華爾街見聞

2024年1月10日19:00

重磅上線

本文不構成個人投資建議，不代表平台觀點，市場有風險，投資需謹慎，請獨立判斷和決策。

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0, 0, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(0, 0, 0, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(0, 0, 0, .05);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #fa9d3b;--weui-YELLOW: #ffc300;--weui-GREEN: #91d300;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #95ec69;--weui-BRAND: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1485ee;--weui-PURPLE: #6467f0;--weui-WHITE: #fff;--weui-LINK: #576b95;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #06ae56;--weui-FG: #000;--weui-BG: #fff;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: #fa9d3b;--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: #06ae56;--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(0, 0, 0, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(0, 0, 0, .05)}.wx-root,body{--weui-BTN-ACTIVE-MASK: rgba(0, 0, 0, .1)}.wx-root,body{--weui-BTN-DEFAULT-ACTIVE-BG: #e6e6e6}.wx-root,body{--weui-DIALOG-LINE-COLOR: rgba(0, 0, 0, .1)}.wx-root,body{--weui-BG-COLOR-ACTIVE: #ececec}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-BTN-ACTIVE-MASK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1)}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-BTN-DEFAULT-ACTIVE-BG: rgba(255, 255, 255, .126)}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-DIALOG-LINE-COLOR: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1)}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--APPMSGCARD-BG: #1E1E1E}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--APPMSGCARD-LINE-BG: rgba(255, 255, 255, .07)}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-BG-COLOR-ACTIVE: #373737}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-BG-6: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-ACTIVE-MASK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1)}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-REDORANGE: #ff6146;--weui-BG-0: #111;--weui-BG-1: #1e1e1e;--weui-BG-2: #191919;--weui-BG-3: #202020;--weui-BG-4: #404040;--weui-BG-5: #2c2c2c;--weui-FG-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(255, 255, 255, .6);--weui-FG-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-FG-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, .3);--weui-FG-3: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(255, 255, 255, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #c87d2f;--weui-YELLOW: #cc9c00;--weui-GREEN: #74a800;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #3eb575;--weui-BRAND: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1196ff;--weui-PURPLE: #8183ff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--discussInput-BG: rgba(255, 255, 255, .03)}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--nickName-FG: #959595}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-BG-0: #111;--weui-BG-1: #1e1e1e;--weui-BG-2: #191919;--weui-BG-3: #202020;--weui-BG-4: #404040;--weui-BG-5: #2c2c2c;--weui-FG-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(255, 255, 255, .6);--weui-FG-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-FG-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, .3);--weui-FG-3: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(255, 255, 255, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #c87d2f;--weui-YELLOW: #cc9c00;--weui-GREEN: #74a800;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #3eb575;--weui-BRAND: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1196ff;--weui-PURPLE: #8183ff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--appmsgExtra-BG: #121212}}

div.autoTypeSetting24psection > p,div.autoTypeSetting24psection > section{margin-bottom: 24px;}