期刊简介
国际研究季刊 (International Studies Quarterly) 是国际研究协会 (ISA) 的旗舰期刊，旨在发布与国际研究中重要的理论、实证和规范主题相关的领先学者研究。本刊发表的文章以某种有意义的方式参与了跨越国家边界的政治、经济、社会或文化进程，旨在提供解释性难题的答案、展示原创性研究、探索国际理论中的主题，或以其他方式介入学科辩论。尽管本刊文章通常具有政策含义——我们鼓励作者阐明这些含义，但与它们的学术目的相比，这些含义是次要的。
本期目录
1
跨国公司应在哪里纳税？
Where Should Multinationals Pay Taxes?
2
被迫延长：征兵、军事劳动成本和内战持续时间
Pressed to Prolong: Conscription, the Costs of Military Labor, and Civil War Duration
3
监控监视器？对侵犯人权行为的选择性回应
Monitoring the Monitor? Selective Responses to Human Rights Transgressions
4
向前一步，后退一步：冲突对女性安全的微观影响
One Step Forward, One Step Back: The Micro-Level Impacts of Conflict on Women's Security
5
国际关系中的贸易衡量问题
The Problem with Trade Measurement in International Relations
6
跳出框架思考：内战中的跨国恐怖主义
Thinking Outside of the Box: Transnational Terrorism in Civil Wars
7
慈善基金会和跨国活动家网络：福特和美洲人权研究所
Philanthropic Foundations and Transnational Activist Networks: Ford and the Inter-American Institute of Human Rights
8
专业化的力量：非政府组织在全球环保治理中的倡议
The Power of Specialization: NGO Advocacy in Global Conservation Governance
文章摘要
跨国公司应在哪里纳税？
题目：Where Should Multinationals Pay Taxes?
作者：Vincent Arel-Bundock，蒙特利尔大学政治学副教授，研究领域为比较与国际政治经济学；André Blais，蒙特利尔大学政治学教授，研究领域为政治行为研究。
摘要：国际税收体系是战后经济秩序的支柱，但随着全球价值链、数字化进程和避税的兴起，它面临着重大挑战。关于国际税收改革的辩论通常发生在一个由专家和技术官僚组成的小型认知共同体内。本文试图跳出这个限制范畴，评估自下而上的合法性来源，并支持规定跨国公司必须在哪里申报利润、哪些政府有权对这些利润征税的规则。本文在巴西、法国和美国进行了调查实验以评估大众对各国税基分配的态度。本文发现，人们的观点与现行制度的核心原则相冲突，但与将更多的征税权分配给市场管辖的改革建议是一致的。这些发现在三个国家和三项不同的研究中惊人地一致。初看之下，各国态度的一致性可能预示着该领域国际合作的积极面。然而，本文也发现公众对税收分配的看法存在很大程度的“本土偏见”。本文结论为税收改革的合法性和国际经济关系这一关键领域的合作前景提供了新的思路。
The international tax system is a pillar of the post-war economic order, but it faces major challenges with the rise of global value chains, digitalization, and tax avoidance. Debates over international tax reform usually occur within a small epistemic community of experts and technocrats. In this article, we step outside this restricted circle to assess the sources of bottom-up legitimacy and support for the rules that govern where multinationals must report profits and which governments are entitled to tax those profits. We conduct survey experiments in Brazil, France, and the United States to assess mass attitudes toward the allocation of the tax base across countries. We find that people’s views clash with the core principles of the current regime, but are aligned with reform proposals that allocate more taxing rights to market jurisdictions. These findings are strikingly consistent across three countries and three distinct studies. At first glance, the consistency of attitudes across countries could spell good things for international cooperation in this arena. However, we also find a significant level of “home bias” in the public’s views on tax allocation. These results shed new light on the legitimacy of tax reform and on the prospects for cooperation in a key area of international economic relations.
被迫延长：征兵、军事劳动成本和内战持续时间
题目：Pressed to Prolong: Conscription, the Costs of Military Labor, and Civil War Duration
作者：Noel Anderson，多伦多大学政治学系助理教授，研究兴趣包括对国内冲突的外部干预、有限战争和反叛乱；Benjamin E Bagozzi，特拉华大学政治学与国际关系系副教授，研究领域包括政治暴力、国际政治经济学和环境政治；Ore Koren，印第安纳大学伯明顿分校政治学系助理教授，研究兴趣包括国内冲突原因的创新方法、有限因变量模型、计量经济学和因果推断方法、混合和综合方法及事件数据。
摘要：针对为什么有些内战比其他内战持续时间更长，既有研究已经做出了相当多的解释。然而，在这种背景下，国家军队招募的劳动力类型仍未得到探索。因此，本文考虑一个国家的军事人事制度如何影响其事后继续战斗的决定。本文认为，征兵使获得军事劳动变得相对容易，因此成本更低。随着军事工资的下降，战争的成本会降低，军事力量的生产变得更加劳动密集，冲突终止的危险也会下降。相比之下，在志愿部队中，军事劳动相对稀少，因此也更加昂贵。相应地，战争的成本变得更高，军事力量的生产变得更加资本密集，冲突终止的风险增加。随着冲突的持续，这些影响会得到加强，导致征兵和志愿军在持续时间上的差异越来越大。本文使用全球内战样本来检验这些论点，为每个假设找到强有力的支持；并在两个说明性案例中验证了将征兵与长期冲突联系起来的潜在机制。本文结论强调了劳工方面的决定因素对战争持续时间的重要性，并有助于越来越多的文献探讨军队的组成如何影响冲突动态。
Existing research has identified numerous explanations for why some civil wars last longer than others. Yet, the type of labor that state militaries recruit has remained unexplored in this context. We consider how a state's military personnel system affects its ex post decision to keep fighting. We argue that conscription renders access to military labor relatively easy and, thus, less expensive. As military wages fall, war becomes less costly, the production of military power becomes more labor intensive, and the hazard of conflict termination declines. In a volunteer force, in contrast, military labor is relatively scarce and, therefore, more expensive. Accordingly, war becomes more costly, the production of military power becomes more capital intensive, and the hazard of conflict termination rises. These effects are reinforced as a conflict persists, leading to an increased divergence in duration across conscripted and volunteer militaries. We test these contentions using a global sample of civil wars, finding robust support for each expectation. We also validate the underlying mechanisms linking conscription to protracted conflict in two illustrative cases. Our results highlight the importance of labor-side determinants of war duration and contribute to a growing literature that explores how the composition of military forces affects conflict dynamics.
监控监视器？对侵犯人权行为的选择性回应
题目：Monitoring the Monitor? Selective Responses to Human Rights Transgressions
作者：Hana Attia，德国康斯坦茨大学决策科学研究生院博士候选人，研究兴趣为经济胁迫、外交政策和国内政治；Julia Grauvogel，德国全球与区域研究所研究员，研究领域包括国际制裁、专制政权的持久性、变化与合法化。
摘要：制裁是解决侵犯人权问题最常用的外交政策工具之一，但却可能被高度政治化。自21世纪初以来，人权制裁越来越多地由国家表现的标准化排名引发。虽然关于经济治国方略的研究表明，基于跨国评估的强制性措施可能较少受到策略考虑的影响，但关于排名的学术研究强调，标准化绩效指标也可能具有政治意义。本文调查基于标准化人权评估的制裁是否也受到发起国的策略性政治和经济利益的影响。经验层面，本文考察了美国人口贩运制裁的案例，该案例结合了第一阶段的普遍排名和第二阶段的具体国家制裁豁免。本文的分析利用了美国国务院2003年至2018年所有人口贩运（TIP）排名和总统制裁豁免的新数据。尽管TIP报告享有可靠指标的声誉，但本文发现实施人口贩运过程的两个阶段制裁是由策略尝试驱动的，目的是尽量减少制裁对美国造成的经济和政治成本。这些调查结果对美国其他人权排名的声誉和有效性具有更广泛的影响。
Sanctions are among the most frequently used foreign policy tools to address human rights violations, but they can be highly politicized. Since the early 2000s, human rights sanctions have been increasingly triggered by standardized rankings of states’ performances. While research on economic statecraft suggests that coercive measures based on cross-national assessments may be less influenced by strategic considerations, scholarship on rankings highlights how standardized performance indicators can also be political. This paper investigates whether sanctions based on standardized human rights assessments are also influenced by senders’ strategic political and economic interests. Empirically, we examine the case of United States human trafficking sanctions that combines universal rankings in the first stage and country-specific sanctions waivers in the second. The analysis leverages novel data on all Trafficking in Persons (TIP) rankings by the US State Department and presidential sanctions waivers from 2003 to 2018. Despite the TIP report's reputation as a reliable indicator, we find that both stages in the process of imposing human trafficking sanctions are driven by strategic attempts to minimize the economic and political costs of sanctions for the US. These findings have broader implications for the reputation and effectiveness of other human rights rankings by the US.
向前一步，后退一步：冲突对女性安全的微观影响
题目：One Step Forward, One Step Back: The Micro-Level Impacts of Conflict on Women's Security
作者：Laura Huber，密西西比大学政治科学系助理教授，研究领域包括安全部门改革、冲突、性别、维持和平和政治暴力。
摘要：尽管冲突具有暴力和有害影响，但越来越多的学术研究表明，妇女在宏观层面的政治权利在冲突后有所增加。然而，人们对冲突如何在微观层面影响女性安全，尤其是冲突如何影响男性和女性对亲密伴侣暴力的态度，知之甚少。虽然冲突可以挑战传统上合理化殴打妻子的性别角色，但也促进了过度男性化，正常化暴力行为，并试图重建传统的性别等级制度来强烈反对女性。国际行为体，通过鼓励进步的性别角色和促进社会经济发展（尤其是通过援助的方式），缓和冲突对对待殴打妻子态度的影响。利用乌干达人口健康调查的数据，本文分析比较了冲突和国际援助在微观层面上对批准殴打妻子的影响。研究结果表明，与单独经历冲突的女性相比，同时经历冲突和援助的女性更不可能赞成殴打妻子。相比之下，遭受暴力和援助的男性不会改变他们殴打妻子的理由。本文阐明了冲突如何在微观层面影响人们对妇女权利的态度。
Despite conflict's violent and deleterious impacts, scholarship increasingly demonstrates that women's political rights at the macro-level increase after conflict. However, relatively less is understood about how conflict impacts women's security at the micro-level, especially regarding how it impacts men's and women's attitudes toward intimate partner violence. While conflict can challenge traditional gender roles that justify wife beating, it also promotes hypermasculinity, normalizes violence, and leads to backlash against women in an attempt to re-establish traditional gender hierarchies. International actors, particularly through aid, moderate the impact of conflict on attitudes toward wife beating by encouraging progressive gender roles and increasing socio-economic development. Using Demographic Health Survey data in Uganda, this analysis compares the influence of conflict and international aid at the microlevel on approval of wife beating. The results demonstrate that women exposed to both conflict and aid are relatively less likely to approve of wife beating relative to women exposed to conflict alone. In contrast, men exposed to violence and aid do not alter their justification of wife beating. This study clarifies how conflict impacts attitudes toward women's rights at the microlevel.
国际关系中的贸易衡量问题
题目：The Problem with Trade Measurement in International Relations
作者：Lukas Linsi，荷兰格罗宁根大学国际政治经济学助理教授，研究领域为国际政治经济学、外国直接投资、宏观经济统计；Brian Burgoon，荷兰阿姆斯特丹大学政治学系教授，研究兴趣包括全球经济一体化、社会政策和福利国家发展、民主政治代表；Daniel K Mügge，阿姆斯特丹大学政治算术（Political Arithmetic）教授，研究兴趣包括欧洲对人工智能（AI）的管理、宏观经济指标的政治经济。
摘要：贸易统计被广泛用于以经济相互依存为重点的研究和决策。然而，国际关系 (IR) 研究人员基本上忽视了一半可用于研究贸易的数据。双边贸易流量通常记录两次：发送经济体记录为出口，接收经济体记录为进口。这两个值应该匹配，但它们之间的差异往往很大且普遍存在。大多数研究忽略了这个问题，本文仅使用一个条目，将其简称为“镜像问题”。然而，哪一个数值最准确并非不言自明的。因此，IR对容易出错的贸易统计数据的依赖可能会扭曲其对经济相互依存性的研究。本文分三步探讨这个问题：首先，量化贸易数据中的镜像问题。其次，使用统计分析、档案记录和与统计专家的访谈来调查镜像问题的根源。第三，通过涵盖IR中不同主题的复证来说明镜像问题的含义。本文发现，对镜像问题的解释可以不同程度地加强、破坏或推翻此类分析的结论。这些发现强调了IR中测量问题的严重性，并提出了解决这些问题的特定方法。
Trade statistics are widely used in studies and policymaking focused on economic interdependence. Yet, researchers in International Relations (IR) have largely disregarded half the data available to study trade. Bilateral trade flows are usually recorded twice: by the sending economy as an export and by the receiving one as an import. These two values should match, but discrepancies between them tend to be large and pervasive. Most studies ignore this issue, which we label the “mirror problem” for short, by using only one entry. However, it is not self-evident which one is consistently most accurate. Hence, IR's reliance on error-prone trade statistics may be distorting its study of economic interdependence. This article explores this problem in three steps: first, we quantify the mirror problem in trade data. Second, we investigate the origins of the mirror problem, using statistical analyses, archival records, and interviews with statistical experts. Third, we illustrate the implications of the mirror problem through replications covering diverse topics in IR. We find that accounting for the mirror problem can variably strengthen, undermine, or overturn conclusions of such analyses. The findings underscore the severity of measurement problems in IR and suggest particular ways to address those problems.
跳出框架思考：内战中的跨国恐怖主义
题目：Thinking Outside of the Box: Transnational Terrorism in Civil Wars
作者：Michael J Soules，美国蒙特利海军研究生院国防分析系研究员，研究兴趣包括恐怖主义、内战、反叛组织招募过程和妇女参与政治暴力的情况。
摘要：学界对跨国恐怖主义给实施此类袭击的激进组织带来的广泛风险已有研究。然而，尽管存在这些风险，跨国恐怖主义已成为内战日益普遍的特征。这就提出了一个问题：为什么反叛组织在他们进行内战的国家之外发动恐怖袭击？本文认为，较弱的反叛团体更倾向于采用这种策略，因为他们走投无路，因此更愿意通过赌博以表明他们的决心，让敌人付出代价，避免与国内安全部队发生直接军事对抗，并产生外部支持。利用1970年至2013年乌普萨拉冲突数据计划（UCDP）二元数据集中所有反叛团体-政府二分的跨国恐怖袭击模式数据，本文发现传统上弱小的反叛团体更有可能依赖跨国恐怖主义。
Scholars have written on the extensive risks that transnational terrorism entails for militant groups that perpetrate such attacks. However, despite these risks, transnational terrorism has become an increasingly common feature of civil wars. This raises the question: Why do rebel groups launch terrorist attacks outside of the countries they are fighting civil wars in? I argue that weaker rebel groups are more inclined to turn to such tactics because they are desperate, and as a result, are more willing to make the gamble to signal their resolve, impose costs on their enemies, avoid direct military confrontation with domestic security forces, and generate external support. Using data on the transnational terrorist attack patterns of all rebel group–government dyads present in the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP) Dyadic Dataset from 1970 to 2013, I find that conventionally weak rebel groups are more likely to rely on transnational terrorism.
慈善基金会和跨国活动家网络：福特和美洲人权研究所
题目：Philanthropic Foundations and Transnational Activist Networks: Ford and the Inter-American Institute of Human Rights
作者：Ezequiel Gonzalez-Ocantos，牛津大学政治与国际关系系副教授，纳菲尔德学院教授研究员，研究领域包括比较司法政治学、过渡时期司法和人权、腐败问题、拉丁美洲的比较政治、政治学中的定性方法；Álvaro Morcillo Laiz，柏林自由大学政治科学系研究员，研究兴趣为全球治理。
摘要：基金会为非政府组织提供重要资金，人们却对它们为跨国行动主义（transnational activism）所做的事情或它们寻求/获得影响力的机制知之甚少。一些人认为捐助者是跨国倡议网络（TANs）中的配角，而另一些人认为捐助者通过非个人的市场力量扭曲了行动主义，本文在这两者之间开辟了一条中间地带。本文以谈判为导向的方法着眼于捐赠者-受助者关系的微观动态。本文认为，影响力是捐赠者组织特征的一个功能。只有一些，尤其是基金会，具有塑造受助者的愿景/手段。然而，内部的复杂性会导致协调问题，使其影响复杂化。此外，如果有很多捐赠者，受助者的影响力就会增加。当它们的专业知识供不应求时也会如此。利用档案证据，本文重构了福特如何试图塑造美洲人权研究所（该地区人权制度的支柱）以及制约成功的因素。对福特而言，该研究所可以在刚刚起步的跨国倡议网络中发挥作用，但前提是它淡化对研究的重视，并直接与活动人士接触。结合对美国国际开发署（USAID）与该研究所的关系以及福特与美洲观察（Americas Watch）的关系的分析，本文揭示了一类重要捐助者的活动，并阐明了基金会在跨国倡议网络发展中的作用。
Foundations provide key funds for nongovernmental organizations. We know little about what they do for transnational activism or the mechanisms via which they seek/achieve influence. We carve a middle ground between those who see donors as supporting actors in transnational advocacy networks (TANs) and those who think they distort activism through impersonal market forces. Our negotiation-oriented approach looks at the micro-dynamics of donor–grantee relations. We argue that influence is a function of donors’ organizational characteristics. Only some, especially foundations, have the vision/means to shape grantees. However, internal complexity can cause coordination problems, complicating influence. Additionally, if many donors exist, recipients’ leverage increases. It does so too if their expertise is in short supply. Using archival evidence, we reconstruct how Ford tried to shape the Inter-American Human Rights Institute, a pillar of the region's human rights regime, and the factors conditioning success. For Ford, the Institute could play a role in a fledging TAN, but only if it downplayed its emphasis on research and directly engaged activists. Coupled with analyses of USAID’s relationship with the Institute and Ford's relationship with Americas Watch, we shed light on the activities of an important class of donor and illuminate foundations’ role in the development of TANs.
专业化的力量：非政府组织在全球环保治理中的倡议
题目：The Power of Specialization: NGO Advocacy in Global Conservation Governance
作者：Takumi Shibaike，昆山杜克大学国际关系学助理教授，研究兴趣为小型非政府组织在生物多样性和气候变化治理中的生存和影响力的策略。
摘要：近年来，组织生态学在全球治理研究中引起了越来越多关注。然而，作为一种结构理论，组织生态学忽视了组织如何通过自己的选择来塑造组织环境。结合组织生态学的见解和非政府组织（NGO)的研究，本文认为组织选择专业性（而非普遍性），通过瞄准一个小规模参与的部分公众，增加了NGO影响环境条件（即议题显著性）的能力。以野生动物保护治理为重点，本文收集了2008-2015年关于非政府组织和议题特征的新的综合数据。本文的实证分析表明，专业非政府组织的密度与议题的显著性密切相关，并且进一步研究了穿山甲保护倡导案例中的因果过程，其中专业的非政府组织首先提出问题的显著性，然后才有普遍性的非政府组织跟进。本文结论表明非政府组织之间存在分工，并挑战了一个传统观点，即非政府组织的权力集中在少数著名的国际组织中。
Organizational ecology has attracted growing interest in global governance research in recent years. As a structural theory, however, organizational ecology has overlooked how organizations may shape the organizational environment by their own choices. Bridging the insights of organizational ecology and the study of nongovernmental organizations (NGOs), I argue that the organizational choice of specialism (as opposed to generalism) increases the power of NGOs to influence an environmental condition—issue salience—by targeting a small but engaged segment of the public. Focusing on wildlife conservation governance, I collected new comprehensive data on NGOs and issue characteristics (2008–2015). My empirical analysis shows that specialist NGO density is strongly associated with issue salience. I further examined causal processes in the case of pangolin conservation advocacy, in which specialist NGOs first raised issue salience and generalist NGOs followed. The findings suggest a division of labor among NGOs and challenge a conventional view that the power of NGOs is concentrated in a small number of prominent organizations.
编译 | 林怡娉
审校 | 周杼樾
排版 | 胡文静
本文来源于《国际研究季刊》。文章评译内容为公益分享，服务于科研教学，不代表本平台观点。