期刊簡介
國際研究季刊 (International Studies Quarterly) 是國際研究協會 (ISA) 的旗艦期刊，旨在釋出與國際研究中重要的理論、實證和規範主題相關的領先學者研究。本刊發表的文章以某種有意義的方式參與了跨越國家邊界的政治、經濟、社會或文化程序，旨在提供解釋性難題的答案、展示原創性研究、探索國際理論中的主題，或以其他方式介入學科辯論。盡管本刊文章通常具有政策含義——我們鼓勵作者闡明這些含義，但與它們的學術目的相比，這些含義是次要的。
本期目錄
1
跨國公司應在哪裡納稅？
Where Should Multinationals Pay Taxes?
2
被迫延長：征兵、軍事勞動成本和内戰持續時間
Pressed to Prolong: Conscription, the Costs of Military Labor, and Civil War Duration
3
監控螢幕？對侵犯人權行為的選擇性回應
Monitoring the Monitor? Selective Responses to Human Rights Transgressions
4
向前一步，後退一步：沖突對女性安全的微觀影響
One Step Forward, One Step Back: The Micro-Level Impacts of Conflict on Women's Security
5
國際關系中的貿易衡量問題
The Problem with Trade Measurement in International Relations
6
跳出架構思考：内戰中的跨國恐怖主義
Thinking Outside of the Box: Transnational Terrorism in Civil Wars
7
慈善基金會和跨國活動家網絡：福特和美洲人權研究所
Philanthropic Foundations and Transnational Activist Networks: Ford and the Inter-American Institute of Human Rights
8
專業化的力量：非政府組織在全球環保治理中的倡議
The Power of Specialization: NGO Advocacy in Global Conservation Governance
文章摘要
跨國公司應在哪裡納稅？
題目：Where Should Multinationals Pay Taxes?
作者：Vincent Arel-Bundock，蒙特利爾大學政治學副教授，研究領域為比較與國際政治經濟學；André Blais，蒙特利爾大學政治學教授，研究領域為政治行為研究。
摘要：國際稅收體系是戰後經濟秩序的支柱，但随着全球價值鍊、數字化程序和避稅的興起，它面臨着重大挑戰。關于國際稅收改革的辯論通常發生在一個由專家和技術官僚組成的小型認知共同體内。本文試圖跳出這個限制範疇，評估自下而上的合法性來源，并支援規定跨國公司必須在哪裡申報利潤、哪些政府有權對這些利潤征稅的規則。本文在巴西、法國和美國進行了調查實驗以評估大衆對各國稅基配置設定的态度。本文發現，人們的觀點與現行制度的核心原則相沖突，但與将更多的征稅權配置設定給市場管轄的改革建議是一緻的。這些發現在三個國家和三項不同的研究中驚人地一緻。初看之下，各國态度的一緻性可能預示着該領域國際合作的積極面。然而，本文也發現公衆對稅收配置設定的看法存在很大程度的“本土偏見”。本文結論為稅收改革的合法性和國際經濟關系這一關鍵領域的合作前景提供了新的思路。
The international tax system is a pillar of the post-war economic order, but it faces major challenges with the rise of global value chains, digitalization, and tax avoidance. Debates over international tax reform usually occur within a small epistemic community of experts and technocrats. In this article, we step outside this restricted circle to assess the sources of bottom-up legitimacy and support for the rules that govern where multinationals must report profits and which governments are entitled to tax those profits. We conduct survey experiments in Brazil, France, and the United States to assess mass attitudes toward the allocation of the tax base across countries. We find that people’s views clash with the core principles of the current regime, but are aligned with reform proposals that allocate more taxing rights to market jurisdictions. These findings are strikingly consistent across three countries and three distinct studies. At first glance, the consistency of attitudes across countries could spell good things for international cooperation in this arena. However, we also find a significant level of “home bias” in the public’s views on tax allocation. These results shed new light on the legitimacy of tax reform and on the prospects for cooperation in a key area of international economic relations.
被迫延長：征兵、軍事勞動成本和内戰持續時間
題目：Pressed to Prolong: Conscription, the Costs of Military Labor, and Civil War Duration
作者：Noel Anderson，多倫多大學政治學系助理教授，研究興趣包括對國内沖突的外部幹預、有限戰争和反叛亂；Benjamin E Bagozzi，特拉華大學政治學與國際關系系副教授，研究領域包括政治暴力、國際政治經濟學和環境政治；Ore Koren，印第安納大學伯明頓分校政治學系助理教授，研究興趣包括國内沖突原因的創新方法、有限因變量模型、計量經濟學和因果推斷方法、混合和綜合方法及事件資料。
摘要：針對為什麼有些内戰比其他内戰持續時間更長，既有研究已經做出了相當多的解釋。然而，在這種背景下，國家軍隊招募的勞動力類型仍未得到探索。是以，本文考慮一個國家的軍事人事制度如何影響其事後繼續戰鬥的決定。本文認為，征兵使獲得軍事勞動變得相對容易，是以成本更低。随着軍事工資的下降，戰争的成本會降低，軍事力量的生産變得更加勞動密集，沖突終止的危險也會下降。相比之下，在志願部隊中，軍事勞動相對稀少，是以也更加昂貴。相應地，戰争的成本變得更高，軍事力量的生産變得更加資本密集，沖突終止的風險增加。随着沖突的持續，這些影響會得到加強，導緻征兵和志願軍在持續時間上的差異越來越大。本文使用全球内戰樣本來檢驗這些論點，為每個假設找到強有力的支援；并在兩個說明性案例中驗證了将征兵與長期沖突聯系起來的潛在機制。本文結論強調了勞工方面的決定因素對戰争持續時間的重要性，并有助于越來越多的文獻探讨軍隊的組成如何影響沖突動态。
Existing research has identified numerous explanations for why some civil wars last longer than others. Yet, the type of labor that state militaries recruit has remained unexplored in this context. We consider how a state's military personnel system affects its ex post decision to keep fighting. We argue that conscription renders access to military labor relatively easy and, thus, less expensive. As military wages fall, war becomes less costly, the production of military power becomes more labor intensive, and the hazard of conflict termination declines. In a volunteer force, in contrast, military labor is relatively scarce and, therefore, more expensive. Accordingly, war becomes more costly, the production of military power becomes more capital intensive, and the hazard of conflict termination rises. These effects are reinforced as a conflict persists, leading to an increased divergence in duration across conscripted and volunteer militaries. We test these contentions using a global sample of civil wars, finding robust support for each expectation. We also validate the underlying mechanisms linking conscription to protracted conflict in two illustrative cases. Our results highlight the importance of labor-side determinants of war duration and contribute to a growing literature that explores how the composition of military forces affects conflict dynamics.
監控螢幕？對侵犯人權行為的選擇性回應
題目：Monitoring the Monitor? Selective Responses to Human Rights Transgressions
作者：Hana Attia，德國康斯坦茨大學決策科學研究所學生院博士候選人，研究興趣為經濟脅迫、外交政策和國内政治；Julia Grauvogel，德國全球與區域研究所研究員，研究領域包括國際制裁、專制政權的持久性、變化與合法化。
摘要：制裁是解決侵犯人權問題最常用的外交政策工具之一，但卻可能被高度政治化。自21世紀初以來，人權制裁越來越多地由國家表現的标準化排名引發。雖然關于經濟治國方略的研究表明，基于跨國評估的強制性措施可能較少受到政策考慮的影響，但關于排名的學術研究強調，标準化績效名額也可能具有政治意義。本文調查基于标準化人權評估的制裁是否也受到發起國的政策性政治和經濟利益的影響。經驗層面，本文考察了美國人口販運制裁的案例，該案例結合了第一階段的普遍排名和第二階段的具體國家制裁豁免。本文的分析利用了美國國務院2003年至2018年所有人口販運（TIP）排名和總統制裁豁免的新資料。盡管TIP報告享有可靠名額的聲譽，但本文發現實施人口販運過程的兩個階段制裁是由政策嘗試驅動的，目的是盡量減少制裁對美國造成的經濟和政治成本。這些調查結果對美國其他人權排名的聲譽和有效性具有更廣泛的影響。
Sanctions are among the most frequently used foreign policy tools to address human rights violations, but they can be highly politicized. Since the early 2000s, human rights sanctions have been increasingly triggered by standardized rankings of states’ performances. While research on economic statecraft suggests that coercive measures based on cross-national assessments may be less influenced by strategic considerations, scholarship on rankings highlights how standardized performance indicators can also be political. This paper investigates whether sanctions based on standardized human rights assessments are also influenced by senders’ strategic political and economic interests. Empirically, we examine the case of United States human trafficking sanctions that combines universal rankings in the first stage and country-specific sanctions waivers in the second. The analysis leverages novel data on all Trafficking in Persons (TIP) rankings by the US State Department and presidential sanctions waivers from 2003 to 2018. Despite the TIP report's reputation as a reliable indicator, we find that both stages in the process of imposing human trafficking sanctions are driven by strategic attempts to minimize the economic and political costs of sanctions for the US. These findings have broader implications for the reputation and effectiveness of other human rights rankings by the US.
向前一步，後退一步：沖突對女性安全的微觀影響
題目：One Step Forward, One Step Back: The Micro-Level Impacts of Conflict on Women's Security
作者：Laura Huber，密西西比大學政治科學系助理教授，研究領域包括安全部門改革、沖突、性别、維持和平和政治暴力。
摘要：盡管沖突具有暴力和有害影響，但越來越多的學術研究表明，婦女在宏觀層面的政治權利在沖突後有所增加。然而，人們對沖突如何在微觀層面影響女性安全，尤其是沖突如何影響男性和女性對親密伴侶暴力的态度，知之甚少。雖然沖突可以挑戰傳統上合理化毆打妻子的性别角色，但也促進了過度男性化，正常化暴力行為，并試圖重建傳統的性别等級制度來強烈反對女性。國際行為體，通過鼓勵進步的性别角色和促進社會經濟發展（尤其是通過援助的方式），緩和沖突對對待毆打妻子态度的影響。利用烏幹達人口健康調查的資料，本文分析比較了沖突和國際援助在微觀層面上對準許毆打妻子的影響。研究結果表明，與單獨經曆沖突的女性相比，同時經曆沖突和援助的女性更不可能贊成毆打妻子。相比之下，遭受暴力和援助的男性不會改變他們毆打妻子的理由。本文闡明了沖突如何在微觀層面影響人們對婦女權利的态度。
Despite conflict's violent and deleterious impacts, scholarship increasingly demonstrates that women's political rights at the macro-level increase after conflict. However, relatively less is understood about how conflict impacts women's security at the micro-level, especially regarding how it impacts men's and women's attitudes toward intimate partner violence. While conflict can challenge traditional gender roles that justify wife beating, it also promotes hypermasculinity, normalizes violence, and leads to backlash against women in an attempt to re-establish traditional gender hierarchies. International actors, particularly through aid, moderate the impact of conflict on attitudes toward wife beating by encouraging progressive gender roles and increasing socio-economic development. Using Demographic Health Survey data in Uganda, this analysis compares the influence of conflict and international aid at the microlevel on approval of wife beating. The results demonstrate that women exposed to both conflict and aid are relatively less likely to approve of wife beating relative to women exposed to conflict alone. In contrast, men exposed to violence and aid do not alter their justification of wife beating. This study clarifies how conflict impacts attitudes toward women's rights at the microlevel.
國際關系中的貿易衡量問題
題目：The Problem with Trade Measurement in International Relations
作者：Lukas Linsi，荷蘭格羅甯根大學國際政治經濟學助理教授，研究領域為國際政治經濟學、外國直接投資、宏觀經濟統計；Brian Burgoon，荷蘭阿姆斯特丹大學政治學系教授，研究興趣包括全球經濟一體化、社會政策和福利國家發展、民主政治代表；Daniel K Mügge，阿姆斯特丹大學政治算術（Political Arithmetic）教授，研究興趣包括歐洲對人工智能（AI）的管理、宏觀經濟名額的政治經濟。
摘要：貿易統計被廣泛用于以經濟互相依存為重點的研究和決策。然而，國際關系 (IR) 研究人員基本上忽視了一半可用于研究貿易的資料。雙邊貿易流量通常記錄兩次：發送經濟體記錄為出口，接收經濟體記錄為進口。這兩個值應該比對，但它們之間的差異往往很大且普遍存在。大多數研究忽略了這個問題，本文僅使用一個條目，将其簡稱為“鏡像問題”。然而，哪一個數值最準确并非不言自明的。是以，IR對容易出錯的貿易統計資料的依賴可能會扭曲其對經濟互相依存性的研究。本文分三步探讨這個問題：首先，量化貿易資料中的鏡像問題。其次，使用統計分析、檔案記錄和與統計專家的訪談來調查鏡像問題的根源。第三，通過涵蓋IR中不同主題的複證來說明鏡像問題的含義。本文發現，對鏡像問題的解釋可以不同程度地加強、破壞或推翻此類分析的結論。這些發現強調了IR中測量問題的嚴重性，并提出了解決這些問題的特定方法。
Trade statistics are widely used in studies and policymaking focused on economic interdependence. Yet, researchers in International Relations (IR) have largely disregarded half the data available to study trade. Bilateral trade flows are usually recorded twice: by the sending economy as an export and by the receiving one as an import. These two values should match, but discrepancies between them tend to be large and pervasive. Most studies ignore this issue, which we label the “mirror problem” for short, by using only one entry. However, it is not self-evident which one is consistently most accurate. Hence, IR's reliance on error-prone trade statistics may be distorting its study of economic interdependence. This article explores this problem in three steps: first, we quantify the mirror problem in trade data. Second, we investigate the origins of the mirror problem, using statistical analyses, archival records, and interviews with statistical experts. Third, we illustrate the implications of the mirror problem through replications covering diverse topics in IR. We find that accounting for the mirror problem can variably strengthen, undermine, or overturn conclusions of such analyses. The findings underscore the severity of measurement problems in IR and suggest particular ways to address those problems.
跳出架構思考：内戰中的跨國恐怖主義
題目：Thinking Outside of the Box: Transnational Terrorism in Civil Wars
作者：Michael J Soules，美國蒙特利海軍研究所學生院國防分析系研究員，研究興趣包括恐怖主義、内戰、反叛組織招募過程和婦女參與政治暴力的情況。
摘要：學界對跨國恐怖主義給實施此類襲擊的激進組織帶來的廣泛風險已有研究。然而，盡管存在這些風險，跨國恐怖主義已成為内戰日益普遍的特征。這就提出了一個問題：為什麼反叛組織在他們進行内戰的國家之外發動恐怖襲擊？本文認為，較弱的反叛團體更傾向于采用這種政策，因為他們走投無路，是以更願意通過賭博以表明他們的決心，讓敵人付出代價，避免與國内安全部隊發生直接軍事對抗，并産生外部支援。利用1970年至2013年烏普薩拉沖突資料計劃（UCDP）二進制資料集中所有反叛團體-政府二分的跨國恐怖襲擊模式資料，本文發現傳統上弱小的反叛團體更有可能依賴跨國恐怖主義。
Scholars have written on the extensive risks that transnational terrorism entails for militant groups that perpetrate such attacks. However, despite these risks, transnational terrorism has become an increasingly common feature of civil wars. This raises the question: Why do rebel groups launch terrorist attacks outside of the countries they are fighting civil wars in? I argue that weaker rebel groups are more inclined to turn to such tactics because they are desperate, and as a result, are more willing to make the gamble to signal their resolve, impose costs on their enemies, avoid direct military confrontation with domestic security forces, and generate external support. Using data on the transnational terrorist attack patterns of all rebel group–government dyads present in the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP) Dyadic Dataset from 1970 to 2013, I find that conventionally weak rebel groups are more likely to rely on transnational terrorism.
慈善基金會和跨國活動家網絡：福特和美洲人權研究所
題目：Philanthropic Foundations and Transnational Activist Networks: Ford and the Inter-American Institute of Human Rights
作者：Ezequiel Gonzalez-Ocantos，牛津大學政治與國際關系系副教授，納菲爾德學院教授研究員，研究領域包括比較司法政治學、過渡時期司法和人權、腐敗問題、拉丁美洲的比較政治、政治學中的定性方法；Álvaro Morcillo Laiz，柏林自由大學政治科學系研究員，研究興趣為全球治理。
摘要：基金會為非政府組織提供重要資金，人們卻對它們為跨國行動主義（transnational activism）所做的事情或它們尋求/獲得影響力的機制知之甚少。一些人認為捐助者是跨國倡議網絡（TANs）中的配角，而另一些人認為捐助者通過非個人的市場力量扭曲了行動主義，本文在這兩者之間開辟了一條中間地帶。本文以談判為導向的方法着眼于捐贈者-受助者關系的微觀動态。本文認為，影響力是捐贈者組織特征的一個功能。隻有一些，尤其是基金會，具有塑造受助者的願景/手段。然而，内部的複雜性會導緻協調問題，使其影響複雜化。此外，如果有很多捐贈者，受助者的影響力就會增加。當它們的專業知識供不應求時也會如此。利用檔案證據，本文重構了福特如何試圖塑造美洲人權研究所（該地區人權制度的支柱）以及制約成功的因素。對福特而言，該研究所可以在剛剛起步的跨國倡議網絡中發揮作用，但前提是它淡化對研究的重視，并直接與活動人士接觸。結合對美國國際開發署（USAID）與該研究所的關系以及福特與美洲觀察（Americas Watch）的關系的分析，本文揭示了一類重要捐助者的活動，并闡明了基金會在跨國倡議網絡發展中的作用。
Foundations provide key funds for nongovernmental organizations. We know little about what they do for transnational activism or the mechanisms via which they seek/achieve influence. We carve a middle ground between those who see donors as supporting actors in transnational advocacy networks (TANs) and those who think they distort activism through impersonal market forces. Our negotiation-oriented approach looks at the micro-dynamics of donor–grantee relations. We argue that influence is a function of donors’ organizational characteristics. Only some, especially foundations, have the vision/means to shape grantees. However, internal complexity can cause coordination problems, complicating influence. Additionally, if many donors exist, recipients’ leverage increases. It does so too if their expertise is in short supply. Using archival evidence, we reconstruct how Ford tried to shape the Inter-American Human Rights Institute, a pillar of the region's human rights regime, and the factors conditioning success. For Ford, the Institute could play a role in a fledging TAN, but only if it downplayed its emphasis on research and directly engaged activists. Coupled with analyses of USAID’s relationship with the Institute and Ford's relationship with Americas Watch, we shed light on the activities of an important class of donor and illuminate foundations’ role in the development of TANs.
專業化的力量：非政府組織在全球環保治理中的倡議
題目：The Power of Specialization: NGO Advocacy in Global Conservation Governance
作者：Takumi Shibaike，昆山杜克大學國際關系學助理教授，研究興趣為小型非政府組織在生物多樣性和氣候變化治理中的生存和影響力的政策。
摘要：近年來，組織生态學在全球治理研究中引起了越來越多關注。然而，作為一種結構理論，組織生态學忽視了組織如何通過自己的選擇來塑造組織環境。結合組織生态學的見解和非政府組織（NGO)的研究，本文認為組織選擇專業性（而非普遍性），通過瞄準一個小規模參與的部分公衆，增加了NGO影響環境條件（即議題顯著性）的能力。以野生動物保護治理為重點，本文收集了2008-2015年關于非政府組織和議題特征的新的綜合資料。本文的實證分析表明，專業非政府組織的密度與議題的顯著性密切相關，并且進一步研究了穿山甲保護倡導案例中的因果過程，其中專業的非政府組織首先提出問題的顯著性，然後才有普遍性的非政府組織跟進。本文結論表明非政府組織之間存在分工，并挑戰了一個傳統觀點，即非政府組織的權力集中在少數著名的國際組織中。
Organizational ecology has attracted growing interest in global governance research in recent years. As a structural theory, however, organizational ecology has overlooked how organizations may shape the organizational environment by their own choices. Bridging the insights of organizational ecology and the study of nongovernmental organizations (NGOs), I argue that the organizational choice of specialism (as opposed to generalism) increases the power of NGOs to influence an environmental condition—issue salience—by targeting a small but engaged segment of the public. Focusing on wildlife conservation governance, I collected new comprehensive data on NGOs and issue characteristics (2008–2015). My empirical analysis shows that specialist NGO density is strongly associated with issue salience. I further examined causal processes in the case of pangolin conservation advocacy, in which specialist NGOs first raised issue salience and generalist NGOs followed. The findings suggest a division of labor among NGOs and challenge a conventional view that the power of NGOs is concentrated in a small number of prominent organizations.
編譯 | 林怡娉
審校 | 周杼樾
排版 | 胡文靜
本文來源于《國際研究季刊》。文章評譯内容為公益分享，服務于科研教學，不代表本平台觀點。