China Securities Network News (reporter Zhang Huanyun) a few days ago, Boshi Fund released the 2021 macro strategy report. The report is titled "Main Battle: Inheriting the Past and Opening Up the Future", the report believes that in 2021, the driving force of A-shares has changed from a two-wheel drive of profitability and valuation to a single-wheel drive of profit, which needs to reduce the expected yield and run n-type throughout the year; the cost performance of Hong Kong stocks is better than that of A shares, which has allocation value in the one-year dimension; short-term Treasury bond yields have certain upward risks, and the demand for long-term credit bonds shrinks. Following the past and opening up, the trend is mainly within, and the rhythm is relaxed and measured, so that it is prepared. From a strategic point of view, the "prince" industry is the main track, sustainable attention.
The core point of the report points out that the investment direction in 2021 will be from cyclical restoration to endogenous growth, and continue to open up the future. From the perspective of the whole year, risk assets are facing the pressure of valuation and need to reduce the expected rate of return. In the first quarter, commodities and stocks were better than bonds, and Hong Kong stocks were more cost-effective. In the second quarter, the economy and credit crossed the hill, risk assets were under pressure, and the value of bond allocation was highlighted. From a structural point of view, the growth of equity, consumption is better than the cycle, credit debt differentiation, gold hedging function weakened, crude oil shock upward. The epidemic, the trend of the US dollar, and the strength of the policy turn determine the pace of investment, and the industrial trend determines the structure of the main track.
The report pointed out that in the macro aspect, the effect of the domestic economy in the first quarter of the counter-cyclical policy, the resilience of the global demand recovery, the resilience of the real estate post-cycle, the replenishment of inventories by enterprises, and the rebound of manufacturing investment may bring about the short-term cycle highs of the traditional economy. The policy will continue from top to bottom, and start a big year for the implementation of new strategic deployment. Macro policies maintain continuity, stability and sustainability, counter-cyclical policies smoothly transition to cross-cycle, concerns about the ups and downs of the policy environment have been substantially alleviated, and attention has been paid to structural credit clearance pressure and micro liquidity changes. In terms of reform and industrial policy, the policy at both the supply and demand ends has focused on domestic substitution, military industry, new energy, new domestic demand and new agricultural opportunities, the progress of fiscal and tax reform for high-income groups and high-profit enterprises with the original intention of solving the problem of relative poverty, and the impact of anti-monopoly policies to prevent the disorderly expansion of capital.
The report pointed out that in terms of industry, 2021 is the year when the industry decides to invest in the track. From the perspective of the cycle track, the manufacturing industry, especially the high increase in financing of light industry, will bring about the acceleration of production capacity construction, and the population inflection point accelerates this process, of which capital expenditure in the industries of home appliances, computers, light industry, electronics, machinery and equipment has accelerated significantly. The fiscal sector leaves room for infrastructure construction, and the boom will continue until the first half of the year, and the second half of the year will begin to weaken, pulling the repair of construction machinery and non-ferrous prosperity. From the perspective of the consumption track, the characteristics of post-epidemic consumption recovery are that they must be selected first, goods are selected first, and there is still room for upward opening with service consumption. The global real estate post-cycle has brought about the recovery of to C-end business such as furniture and home improvement. Exports have led to steady growth in machinery, metal supplies, auto parts and electrical equipment. New consumption continues to upgrade, and intelligence constitutes a new track. From the perspective of science and technology track, to avoid the digital gap caused by soft technology crossing the boundary, attach importance to the opportunities brought about by the accelerated integration of hard technology and industrial chain, and need to be vigilant and pay attention to the bottleneck of the industrial chain formed by the insufficient production capacity of a certain link and the investment opportunities brought about by the price increase of corresponding products. Prince is the main track of the future, namely popularization (popular), rare metals (rare metals), intellectualization (intelligent), new energy (new energy), high-quality consumption (quality consumption), environment-friendly (environmental protection).
The report pointed out that in terms of assets, from the trend point of view, the driving force has changed from a two-wheel drive of earnings and valuation to a single-wheel drive of profit, which requires reducing the expected rate of return and accepting the reality of valuation contraction caused by credit tightening. The annual n-type operation, the characteristics of the first quarter cycle transaction are obvious, and the probability of adjustment after that increases, and the annual growth and consumption are better than the cycle. Hong Kong stocks are quite cost-effective and have become a strategic high point for global funds to invest in China. In terms of bonds, short-term Treasury yields have certain upside risks, and allocation opportunities can be gradually focused on at the end of the first quarter. Short-term credit mining has been very sufficient, and the transformation of wealth management net worth will continue to advance next year, and the demand for long-term credit bonds will shrink. Based on the judgment that it is difficult for the stock market to appear large trend opportunities, the overall opportunity of the bond market is relatively flat, and it is necessary to dig deep into a bond. Gold's hedging function is insufficient. The world is recovering in twists and turns, and crude oil is oscillating upwards.