2021-11-02Austoc Securities Co., Ltd. Zhou Ershuang, Zhu Beibei conducted a study on Eston and released a research report "2021 Third Quarter Report Review: Short-term Performance Under Pressure, Robot Body Business Performance Is Eye-catching", this report gives Eston an overweight rating, and the current stock price is 26.75 yuan.
Eston(002747)
Event: The company released the third quarterly report, the first three quarters of the revenue of 2.302 billion yuan, a year-on-year +30.54%; the net profit attributable to the mother of 87.846 million yuan, a year-on-year +2.84%; the deduction of non-attributable net profit of 633.88 billion yuan, a year-on-year -11.04%.
Investment essentials
In the first three quarters, revenue grew rapidly, and the robot body business performed brightly
In the first three quarters of 2021, the company's operating income maintained a rapid growth trend, of which in a single quarter, the operating income of 2021q3 was 740 million yuan, +25.32% year-on-year, -20.08% month-on-month; the net profit attributable to the mother was 24.9538 million yuan, +4.94% year-on-year, and -17.35% month-on-month. Affected by the double limit in the same period, q3 performance decreased from q2.
By business: 1) Automation core components business revenue of 647 million yuan, +31.54% year-on-year; 2) industrial robots and intelligent manufacturing system revenue of 1.655 billion yuan, +30.15% year-on-year, mainly due to the rapid growth of the robot body business, system integration business revenue -3.94% year-on-year. Splitting the robot ontology business, the revenue of cloos and estun robots increased by 40.86% year-on-year, of which estun robots increased by 62.44% year-on-year, and cloos robots increased by 34.13% year-on-year. The shipment of six-joint robots accounted for 80% of the overall shipments of robots; at the same time, the integration effect of claos was obvious, and the revenue of welding robots in the Chinese market in the first three quarters of 2021 was +267.56% year-on-year.
Affected by the epidemic, the gross profit margin is under pressure, and the Q3 single quarter has improved
2021q1-q3 comprehensive gross profit margin of 33.53%, year-on-year -3.37pct; of which q3 single-quarter gross profit margin of 34.21%, +2.07pct, the gross profit margin is gradually improving, the company continues to optimize supply chain management, accelerate R & D and design cost reduction and localization substitution, progress smoothly. Q3 was affected by the epidemic, and the company's deferred revenue recognition of some high-margin products was about 20 million yuan, affecting the gross profit margin of Q3 1.62pct. The key points in our judgment on whether the gross profit margin of subsequent companies can stabilize and recover are: 1) the overseas epidemic situation has improved, and the overseas high gross profit business has progressed smoothly; 2) the major customer strategy has progressed smoothly, and the product price has rebounded after reaching a stable cooperation.
The 2021q1-q3 net interest margin was 4.62%, -0.88pct year-on-year, of which the 2021q3 single-quarter net interest rate was 4.32%, +0.18pct sequentially. In the first three quarters, the company's total expense ratio was 30.81%, year-on-year -2.61pct, of which the sales expense ratio was 8.77%, +0.45pct year-on-year, mainly due to the construction of estun & cloos robot marketing channels; the management expense ratio (including research and development) was 21.01%, +0.64pct; the financial expense ratio was 1.03%, year-on-year -3.70pct, mainly due to the unrealized exchange gains caused by the decline in exchange rates during the reporting period.
The net operating cash flow in the first three quarters was -81.6798 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of -173.73%, mainly due to the increase in payment expenses incurred by the company for material reserves for subsequent orders.
High research and development build barriers, and the leading position of robots is stable
The company has continued to invest heavily in research and development for many years, maintaining a high proportion of research and development investment, 2021q1-q3 research and development expense ratio of 8.17%, +0.16pct year-on-year, in the case of substantial revenue growth still achieved positive year-on-year growth. Through a large number of R & D investment, the company has launched new products in product lines such as trio controllers, estun servo products and sheet metal bending robots, which have been successfully transformed into new technologies and new products.
In the long run, the company is based on the golden track of robots, and in the context of the gradual disappearance of the demographic dividend, the future space of the industry is large. The company has the advantages of the whole industry chain of "core components + body + robot integration application, and the leading position of domestic robots is stable."
Profit forecast and investment rating: Taking into account the pressure on the company's performance due to the rise in raw materials and the overseas epidemic, we have lowered the company's net profit forecast attributable to the mother from 1.89/3.07/412 million yuan to 1.4/3.0/430 million yuan from 1.89/3.07/412 million yuan, and the current market value corresponds to 161/75/53 times pe in 2021-2023, maintaining an "overweight" rating.
Risk Warning: Cloos synergies are less than expected, and the demand in the robotics industry is less than expected.
A total of 14 institutions have given ratings in the last 90 days, with 8 buy ratings and 6 overweight ratings; the average target price of institutions in the past 90 days has been 32.1; the Securities Star Valuation Analysis Tool shows that the 002747 good company rating is 3.5 stars, the good price rating is 1.5 stars, and the valuation composite rating is 2.5 stars.