Financial Associated Press (Beijing, reporter Chen Junling) news, "I hope that our analysis can give you confidence and encouragement, reduce the discomfort and depression in your heart, regain confidence in value investment, and wait for the rose of time!" This week, a head public offering said in a letter to value fund holders.
This week, the "low valuation" sectors such as finance, real estate, and steel have seen a long-lost rise, making it difficult for many fund managers who adhere to the low valuation strategy to suppress their inner "joy". But most of the time, these "lonely long-distance runners" have endured unimaginable "suffering" for ordinary people.
There is an impulse of scale on the inside, and there is pressure on the ranking outside. Is it stubbornly adhering to the "style does not deviate" and suffering from the double suffering of falling net worth and shrinking scale? Or is it timely to be "flexible", chasing popular tracks and dancing with high-valuation bubbles?
In the fall of 2016, a media outlet had done a "lonely long-distance runner" plan, combing through the "super bull stocks" since 2012 - Wangsu Technology, Sanju Environmental Protection, Boss Electrical Appliances, CICC Environment, Sunwoda, etc., and the fund managers behind them who have "long-term persistence".
Times have passed, most of these big bull stocks that rose for five consecutive years at that time left the highlight moment in 2016, which can never go back, and some fell to only a "fraction", and the fund managers who re-positioned them and "looked good" were mostly missing.
On September 22, 2016, Wangsu Technology closed at 67.93 yuan. Although there was a decline on the day, it did not prevent Wangsu Technology from recording a cumulative increase of 1688% in the past 3 years and 9 months. In the five years since 2012, the stock price has achieved positive returns every year.
There are many similar stocks. Sanju Environmental Protection, Boss Electrical Appliances, CICC Environment, Sunwoda, Jessa Technology, Leyard, Zhouming Technology... Looks and looks in exchange for a fruitful return, but among the thousands of fund managers, why do "sticky people" become lonely long-distance runners?
After five years, looking back at this article with a sense of historical depth, and looking at these long-standing "super bull stocks" at that time, as well as the "lonely long-distance runners" behind them, I can't help but think of the word often said in the stock market: "punching the face".
Even if calculated by the annual k-line, since 2016, Wangsu Technology has closed 5 consecutive "annual yin lines" (2019 is a false yin line), and the five-year rise and fall are -40.49%, -26.38%, 22.29%, -27.50% and -9.45%, respectively, and the current stock price has fallen by more than 70% compared with the highest in 2016.
From the big bull stocks of the past to today's depressed stocks, Wangsu Technology is not alone.
Sanju Environmental Protection, CICC Environment, Jesse Technology, Leyard also left their "highlight moments" in 2016 that can never go back, Zhouming Technology, Boss Electrical Appliances is slightly better, the past five years are basically in a sideways state, of the 8 cattle stocks listed in the article, only One of Sunwoda has come out of the taste of "long bull", and the overall hit rate is only 12.25%!
Look at the funds and fund managers mentioned in the article who have long held these strong bull stocks, what kind of scenery is it? Will they really stay together for a long time, or will they just be randomly selected by the media in the past few years, and there are just a few funds that happen to hold?
Fu Pengbo managed the Xingquan Social Responsibility Hybrid Fund for seven years. In the first quarter of 2014, Wangsu Technology entered Fu Pengbo's heavy stock list for the first time. In the 2016 semi-annual report, the fund still holds 9.5708 million shares of Wangsu Technology, and ranks in the "number one position" with a net value of 9.79%.
What happened to Fu Pengbo and Wangsu Technology? In the third quarter of 2016, Wangsu Technology was downgraded to the second heavy stock, and the fourth quarter was reduced to the third heavy stock, and in the first quarter of 2017, Wangsu Technology completely faded out of Fu Pengbo's vision, and since then, there has been no trace of this stock.
Xingquan Global Vision Fund, a subsidiary of the same fund company, is also a fan of Wangsu Technology. Since the fourth quarter of 2013, it was first included in the top ten heavy stocks, until the second quarter of 2016, but by the third quarter of 2016, the company also completely disappeared from the fund.
If you are a bull stock, "looking" can be blown by the media, what value investment, what "companionship, is the longest emotional confession", etc.; but when you one day the stock price turns down, then sorry, the fund manager should say "break, give, leave" is not soft.
"I'd rather look for alpha opportunities in new tracks with high valuations than wait for the slim hope of a valuation return in the old cycle!" In the second quarter, the fund manager who decisively chopped off Guizhou Moutai and increased the Ningde era to the first heavy stock did not hide his stock selection logic.
A Fund Manager's investment style has always been known for being robust. At the beginning of last year, he issued a product that mainly invested in value stocks, the first offering of 1.5 billion yuan, due to heavy positions in banks, real estate stocks, the performance ranking has always been inferior to the growth of the fund, half a year later, the size of the fund is only a few hundred million.
In the fourth quarter of last year, Guizhou Moutai and other liquor stocks rode red dust, becoming a popular track for fund managers to increase their positions, a fund manager also conformed to the trend of the times, the bank stocks were cleared of a share, thanks to the excellent performance of heavy stocks, even if he chased the high, the size of the fund can also turn the tide.
After the Spring Festival, the high level of Moutai in Guizhou fell back, and the Ningde era stood on the cusp. A Fund manager's position in the second quarter "changed face" again, Guizhou Moutai disappeared without a trace, Ningde Era became its first heavy stock, thanks to its "improvisation", the latest size of the fund he managed has exceeded 2 billion yuan.
At the moment when the structural market of a share is becoming more and more intense, in the face of the increasingly scarce and accelerated crowded "hot track", who can give a heavy hand earlier, not only can become the anti-guest-oriented, but also sit on the convenience of the hindsight of the peer "lifting the car", and then obtain a beautiful performance and scale curve.
Fund managers also understand this. The cultural and sports industry fund she managed, established in December 2015, was only 400 million yuan in the initial size due to the market downturn at that time and the fund manager was still a newcomer, and by the end of the second quarter of this year, the scale had reached 17.8 billion yuan.
From an obscure newcomer to a billion-dollar star fund manager, what's so unusual about a fund manager? She once told the media that she refused to "label" herself - the scope of investment in the cultural and sports industry is not "so narrow" and did not want to characterize herself as an investment style.
According to the fund contract, the cultural industries defined by the fund include traditional cultural industries, emerging cultural industries and cultural-related industries, while the sports industry covers sporting goods and facilities, sports services, sports media, emerging sports formats and sports-related industries.
At least literally, the inclusion of liquor stocks in the cultural industry still seems far-fetched. However, b fund managers seem to have a preference for liquor stocks, and in 2019, Guizhou Moutai and Tsingtao Beer were her "favorites"; in 2020, Wuliangye became her "new love".
In the second quarter of 2021, Wuliangye fell from the fourth heavy stock to the tenth heavy stock, and the Ningde era increased from the third heavy stock all the way to the first heavy stock, and the fund's innate "cultural and sports industry" failed to find any trace from the top ten heavy stocks.
What is the relationship between the Ningde era, Wuliangye and the cultural and sports industry? Perhaps the fund manager has his own explanation, but this eclectic, flexible stock selection and trading strategy has brought both performance and scale to the fund.
Even if some people question the "style deviation" of these fund managers' investment style, they will also question their "unworthy name" of the fund contract, but they are facing a more realistic and cruel "survival rule" - the assessment of fund performance and fund size.
Even they know in their hearts that these so-called "favorites" will only stay in their fund's heavy stocks for a quarter or two at most; even they know that when everyone chases these "crowded tracks" at any cost, they will be nothing more than chicken feathers after the wind.
Do you remember that in 2015, when growth stocks were popular, how many well-known fund managers poured into growth stocks such as Huayi Brothers and LeTV? To this day, who cares about the vows that fund managers once promised? Maybe these funds are still there, but "new love" replaces "old love".
This is a pragmatic choice that fund managers are happy to make, but also a simple and rough assessment of the survival paradox of the public offering industry, when the courage to "break the old and establish the new", you can enjoy the double reward of performance and scale growth, who will stubbornly adhere to the "stereotypes and bad habits" and bear the long suffering of valuation return?