Straight News: Following recent rumors that Trump is seriously considering announcing his participation in the 2024 election, Trump hinted in a public speech yesterday that he would hand over power as scheduled in January next year. How do you interpret this?
Special Commentator Liu Heping: I think what is considered to be a hint of power transfer is nothing more than Trump saying that in the face of the epidemic, the current administration will not take closed measures again under any circumstances. The implication is that the measures of re-closure can only be left to his successor, Biden.
In my personal opinion, in fact, the outside world does not have to guess and guess. Two things have long been determined about the outcome of this election. The first is that even if Biden scored far more than the 270 electoral votes required for election, even if the judicial proceedings provoked by the Trump team failed, Trump himself would not willingly admit defeat. Why? First of all, this is determined by Trump's personality, and he resolutely refuses to concede defeat under any circumstances, which is both Trump's strength and his huge shortcoming; second, if he really wants to make a comeback to run for president in four years, then he will not concede defeat this time. Because only by refusing to concede defeat can we exert moral pressure on them on the grounds that Biden and the Democrats stole the election results, while adding moral legitimacy to their comeback in four years.
The second thing that has long been determined is that as long as the counting work is completely completed and Biden wins more than 270 electoral votes, and the judicial lawsuits he has filed have also been lost, Trump will obediently hand over power as scheduled. At present, Trump is still accusing electoral fraud and still insisting on fighting lawsuits, but only to find a decent step for himself in the end. The so-called statement that Trump will refuse to hand over power after losing the election will cause a constitutional crisis in the United States is completely a rumor fabricated by the outside world. Moreover, this statement did not exist after the election, but was already very conclusive in the year before the election. This is obviously a special voice of Trump's political opponents and people who hate Trump, and its purpose is to use such a method to detract from Trump's political integrity, so that he is not only unable to be elected, but also makes him personally bankrupt. From this, we can also see how many people Trump has offended in recent years.
Straight News: So if Trump really refuses to hand over presidential power, as rumored, can he do it?
Special Commentator Liu Heping: Refusing to hand over power after losing the election and remaining on the presidential throne to continue his term is not only something that Trump can't do under any circumstances, I even think that this is something that Trump never thought about.
The first reason is because Trump can't kick the iron plate of the US Constitution. Everyone should know that the core of the Us political system is the separation of powers, but in the United States, the real decision is not the president who holds the executive power, not the Congress elected by the people, nor the justices who can serve for life, nor even the vast number of voters in the United States, but the Constitution that was formulated more than two hundred years ago. This is the source of all power in the United States, including civil rights. Maintaining the dignity and authority of this constitution is the consensus of the vast majority of Americans, including Trump's supporters. In the face of this rigid constitution, Trump is weak.
Second, even if Trump wants to rely on himself, he cannot rely on his own strength, but must mobilize all the forces including the party, government and army. However, can Trump mobilize the military to protect him? The chairman of the US Military Joint Staff has made it clear in the past two days that his allegiance is not to Trump, nor to the Republican Party, not to Congress, not even to the American people, but to the US Constitution. This is obviously a blatant confrontation with Trump and let Trump die of this heart. Trump not only can not move the military, even the judicial department and intelligence department can not move, during this period of time, the JUDICIAL and intelligence departments of the United States have not followed Trump's instructions to investigate the so-called election fraud. At the same time, the Republican Party will not listen to him, and you can see that when the election results were still controversial, a number of Republican party whips, including George W. Bush, took the lead in congratulating Biden on his election. Not only that, but even within the executive system, no one wants to follow Trump in rebellion, vice president Pence has not appeared for several days, which is obviously to keep a distance from Trump; Secretary of State Pompeo changed his tune yesterday, and the State Department will hand over power as scheduled in January. For Trump, this is the rhythm of the so-called rebellion and departure from the general trend.
In addition, the current mainstream public opinion in the United States has formed a "encirclement and suppression" situation for Trump, and the leaders of allies in the United States have also called to congratulate Biden on his election. This kind of public opinion and moral pressure is also irresistible to Trump.
Straight News: So if Trump does run for the US presidency again in four years, will he still have a chance of winning?
Special Commentator Liu Heping: I think not only there is, but the chance of winning again is very great.
First, if Trump were to run for president again in four years, he would only face moral pressure, because there is no precedent in history for anyone who has already been elected to the united states to run again, but there is no institutional obstacle, because the 22nd amendment to the U.S. Constitution only stipulates that the president of the United States cannot serve two terms of eight years, while Trump only does it for four years.
Of course, this only solves the problem of the legitimacy of Trump's re-election, and the real cost of Trump's re-election in the next four years lies in his political basic disk. This basic set is reflected in both the more than 72 million voters who voted for him and his 89 million Twitter followers. And it is particularly noteworthy that this political basic disk does not belong to the Republican Party in the strict sense, but belongs to Trump personally, which is a typical "special army". We know that the Republican Party belongs to the typical party of the rich or the party of capitalists, which has always represented the interests of capitalists, but in this election, a considerable number of rich people and capitalists have basically sided with Trump, and Trump's supporters are mainly composed of Christian evangelicals and middle and lower-middle whites who want to return to tradition in social life. As long as this "special army" is still there, the Republican Party will not only be unable to help him, but will even continue to be kidnapped by Trump and re-electEd to run for Election after four years.
In addition to the firm basic plan, another guarantee for Trump's future candidacy and possible victory is that the fundamental problems facing the United States will still exist in another four years. These issues include racial conflicts between whites and blacks within the United States, the struggle between freedom and conservatism in social life, the gap between rich and poor brought about by economic globalization, and the dissatisfaction of the grassroots with traditional political elites and political orders, etc. Externally, they include the clash of civilizations between Christianity and Islam, whether the United States should give priority or the United States' world responsibility first, and the question of the survival of the world order led by the United States in World War II. The reason why Trump was elected four years ago was that he keenly grasped these deep internal and external contradictions facing the United States, and raised the banner of "rebellion and reasonableness" in line with the trend. This is the so-called hero of the times. It can be expected that in the next four years, these deep-seated contradictions and problems will not only not be resolved with the rise of Biden and the Democratic Party, but will only be further aggravated and deepened. This is the favorable conditions and atmosphere for Trump's comeback four years later.