Chen Ming-tong, head of Taiwan's security department. (Picture from Taiwan media)
According to a comprehensive Taiwan media report on 5 November, the US-Japan think tank and media analysis recently pointed out that compared with Taiwan Island, the mainland has a higher chance of first recovering the outer islands controlled by the Taiwan authorities such as Dongsha Because the probability of the United States sending troops is low, but it can also issue an effective warning. Chen Ming-tung, head of Taiwan's security department, pointed out in response to relevant questions on the 4th that Chinese mainland had indeed discussed whether to attack Dongsha Island, and the situation in the Taiwan Strait was indeed more tense than in the past, but he once again affirmed that during Tsai Ing-wen's tenure as leader of the Taiwan region, there would be no war between the two sides of the strait. With regard to engaging in "Taiwan independence" and "resisting reunification by force," I have repeatedly expressed our official position, that is, "there is only one dead end."
Multi-party analysis by the United States: The mainland has a high probability of attacking Dongsha Island first
The "Chinese mainland Military Strength Report" released by the US Department of Defense on the 4th pointed out that by 2027, China will have the ability to confront the US military in the Indo-Pacific region, and the PLA can attack Taiwan's Dongsha or Taiping Island under the condition of increased military preparations, and also has the ability to invade Kinmen and Matsu. O'Brien, a former White House national security adviser, also said in an interview a few days ago that Chinese mainland may use force against Taiwan before the 2024 US presidential election. US defense expert Carpenter said on the 2nd that in the face of Taiwan's increasingly clear "refusal to reunify," the mainland has released many signals of "patience and quick use up" in recent years, and it is more likely that the mainland will launch limited actions against the remote outer islands controlled by Taiwan than the complete liberation of Taiwan.
Chen Mingtong: There Will Be No War Between the Two Sides of the Strait During Cai's Tenure It is impossible to "force talks by war."
When questioned by the Taiwan legislature on 4 July, the Kuomintang's Kuomintang (KMT) Mindai Lai Shibao asked Chen Mingtong to assess the possibility of "the People's Liberation Army attacking Dongsha Island." Chen Mingtong said that the mainland had debated whether to fight Dongsha Island, but he did not explain the specific situation. Chen Mingtong stressed that in the next 1, 2, and 3 years, during Tsai Ing-wen's term of office, the mainland will not "reunify" Taiwan by force, but is there no accident? Or do you have an emergency? He said "attention must be taken".
Chen Mingtong also vainly claimed that "using war to force talks" is one of the mainland's tactics toward Taiwan, that the Taiwan side has a so-called "direction of response," and that the two sides of the strait can negotiate under legal supervision, but it is impossible to go to the negotiating table under forced force.
The Ministry of National Defense, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and the Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council have a dead end in the "refusal to reunify by force."
In view of the DPP authorities' "resistance to reunification by force," Colonel Tan Kefei, deputy director of the Information Bureau of the Ministry of National Defense and spokesman of the Ministry of National Defense, once said that resolutely defending state sovereignty and territorial integrity and resolutely thwarting all interference by external forces and "Taiwan independence" separatist acts is the sacred mission of the Chinese People's Liberation Army. The trend of the times, where the righteousness lies; it does not move like a mountain, and moves like thunder. Chinese the People's Liberation Army will strengthen its mission and maintain a high degree of vigilance to ensure that when the party and the people need it, they will be able to fight, and they will win the battle.
Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin has also stressed that those who have forgotten their ancestors and split the country have never had a good end, and engaging in "Taiwan independence" is a dead end, and supporting "Taiwan independence" is also a road of no return.
Ma Xiaoguang, spokesman for the Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council, has also warned many times that "resisting reunification by force" is a dead end! (Taiwan Network Zhang Ling)