Figure 1 Domestic polyolefin petrochemical inventory trend chart from 2020 to 2021
According to the statistical analysis of Zhongyu Information, as of the last working day of this week, the inventory of polyolefin two oils was about 670,000 tons, a decrease of nearly 2.90% from the same period last week and an increase of about 7.20% over the same period last year. On the supply side, Luqing pe device is expected to start this month, but the early part of the production device is limited, the overall supply pressure is limited; on the demand side, the demand for shed film in November will gradually weaken, only a few enterprises in the film will start, with the easing of electricity shortage, pe enterprises will gradually increase, but at the same time, the overall downstream demand has weakened, and it is difficult for short-term downstream demand to rebound significantly. With the centralized price reduction promotion of petrochemical enterprises at the end of the month, the current pace of petrochemical destocking is acceptable, and it is expected that the pressure of destocking two oils in the short term is not obvious.
On the whole, the recent statement of the National Development and Reform Commission has achieved remarkable results in coal price regulation and control, and coal prices will stabilize in the future. Fundamentally, the phenomenon of power curtailment in major consumption areas such as East China and South China has been significantly reduced, while production profits have been repaired to a certain extent, the operating rate of downstream enterprises has increased, and the margin of demand has improved, but winter is the traditional off-season, and there is little room for demand to continue to improve. With the deep decline in the price of industrial products, the decline in polyethylene has gradually narrowed, and the support below has become more and more enhanced, but the short-term supply and demand are still weakly balanced, so Zhongyu expects that the domestic PE will maintain a range shock pattern.