Shi Yuan, a Taiwanese observer of Southeast Satellite TV's "Strait Shinkansen" stationed in Taiwan
Last night, the Chinese Kuomintang 2020 Taiwan regional leadership candidate, Kaohsiung Mayor Han Kuo-yu's first campaign in the New Taipei Sanchong was vigorous, my colleagues and I observed this activity at close range, and here there are also some feelings and reflections that I want to share with you.
If it is said that polls can influence the results through the manipulation of political parties and the setting of problems, then the number of supporters on the scene of the campaign is a solid objective existence. Recent polls conducted by many institutions on the island show that there has been a "death crossover" in the polls between Han Hanyu and the current leader of the Taiwan region, Tsai Ing-wen, and the Green Camp has held on to Han Hanyu's gaffes, coupled with the endless attacks of "Han Hei", which has made the "Han fans" resentful. Under such circumstances, in order to "stabilize the hearts and minds of the army" and to "throw stones and ask for directions", the Han Hanyu camp advanced such a "campaign" that would have been carried out in October to the middle and early September, and only one week of preparation time made many guests who spoke on the stage shout "too hasty to mobilize".
Before the event began, the island's media estimated that there would be a crowd of about 200,000 people, and now it seems that this number is obviously somewhat conservative. When elections are rife, MRT stations and food stalls are often the best places to keep an eye on the crowds. Yesterday before 5 p.m., the Mie MRT station was already crowded, and the escalator had to be stopped, even to the point where crowd diversion was needed;
Entering the scene of the event, it is even more crowded, and it feels like people are being pushed away. The food stalls at the scene of the campaign were booming in business the day before the start of the event, even if they had been replenished many times, there were still merchants who apologized and helplessly said to the outside world: "There are too many sellers, there is no tableware for guests to use..." According to the numbers finally released by the host, the number of people on the scene reached 350,000, and in Mie, where the former auxiliary voters fell, Han Hanyu seemed to get back on his feet and handed over a qualified popularity report card.
Although Han Hanyu's basic disk is solid and the "Han fans" are loyal, as this activity progresses, I can still see the changes from some small details. In the island's county mayoral election last year, the "Korean Wave" swept through Taiwan, and everywhere Han Hanyu went, everyone was reluctant to leave. But this time, the echo of the audience when Han Hanyu spoke was slightly weakened, and there was even a situation where "Han Fan" looked left and right and turned his head to the ear. Near the end, when Han Hanyu and others on the stage were still singing, many supporters chose to quietly put away their chairs and get up and leave.
It is undeniable that the process arrangement and the time limit for renting the venue have affected the mood of the supporters to some extent, but there are also certain flaws in the speech itself - perhaps because he cares too much about the opponent camp and the "Han black" attack, this time Han Hanyu followed the method of last year's "nine-in-one" election, and constantly gave examples of "hating the DPP" and "anti-smear" to give preventive injections for the supporters of the stage.
Perhaps this type of shouting will resonate with the audience at first, but over time it is easy to produce auditory fatigue. When it comes to how to perform his duties as a candidate, Han Hanyu also uses a comparison with the current administrator Tsai Ing-wen, and the words that can be implemented sound less, and the words and sentences that depict the blueprint are also slightly empty. Although most of the supporters on the scene are not economic voters, intellectual voters, the policy, the vision may not be able to feel, but the final counter-effect is that Han Hanyu in order to provoke the response of supporters, said some words that are really difficult to climb the elegant, perhaps for a while some people think that Han Hanyu "fights fiercely and listens", but how to use "common people" as a prefix, after all, it is a "high-level politician", the so-called "coolness" in a moment's words, may repeatedly reduce its own pattern, and then I am afraid that it will cause trouble.
In addition, the distribution of the age groups of the supporters of the campaign scene does still have the phenomenon of being older, and the lack of mobilization in the young ethnic groups is what Han Hanyu must face and think about next. Not only the young people, but also the middle voters, the "knowledge blue" and the "economic blue" people, what they care most about is probably a "frustrated politician" turning into a mayor, "getting too fast, too late to fulfill the promise, but wanting more."
At the scene of the New Taipei campaign, we listened to the politicians who came and went on the stage to count the opponents' camps with all their might, shouted slogans with all their might, and watched the passionate supporters in the audience echo as if they were tireless, and we did not know how many words could really enter the ears and hearts.
For months, reports of the 2020 crowd have flooded the island's media and networks, and frivolous things can be turned into news reports, but they are played repeatedly, and few hear about their achievements or refreshing policy visions.
The public opinion circles on the island are blunt, and the media's emphasis on this 2020 election reflects the importance that the Taiwan people attach to the taiwan regional leadership election, because this seat holds the most resources and dominates the direction of Taiwan policy, no matter which political party or individual, winning the Taiwan regional leadership election is equivalent to shouldering the fate of 23 million people in Taiwan. In the choice and divergence again and again, it seems that the people on the island have exercised the "right to choose", but in fact, what they have lost is reason and respect, coupled with the turning of the hands of the politicians on the table for the clouds and the rain, can only make people sigh, the election is a myth, but also a fog.