Entering the second half of October, the weather in the northeast plummeted, and the local area of Suileng in Heilongjiang has dropped to minus 7 degrees, and there are some snowflakes in the cold wind, which has a great feeling of winter. The breeding industry seems to be the same as the weather, but also to enter a severe winter, pig prices just rebounded to usher in 2 consecutive falls in the head-on blow, cattle and sheep prices fell together, the market fish prices continued to weaken, the most down-priced crucian carp up to 2 yuan, the breeding industry's severe winter arrived? Let's take a closer look.
Since the fall of the pig market at the beginning of the year, there have been 2 rebounds, the first time is from June 22 to August 28, the pig price rebounded from about 6.3 yuan per kilogram to 8.7 yuan, rebounding about 2.4 yuan; the second wave of rebound is the rebound from October 8 to October 15, the pig price rebounded from 5.18 yuan / jin to 6.57 yuan / jin, an increase of 1.39 yuan / jin, and the national price of three yuan pigs fell back to 6.38 yuan / jin again.
In addition to the above 2 rebounds, the rest of the time is basically in the flat or falling, after this round of rebound, and ushered in 2 days of continuous decline, October 17 in addition to Shanxi, Liaoning, Xinjiang, the rest of the provinces fell across the board, of which: Inner Mongolia fell 0.4 yuan per kilogram, 5.6-6.1 yuan / jin; Qinghai fell 0.3 yuan, 6.2-6.6 yuan / jin; Guangdong fell 0.3 yuan, 6.4-6.8 yuan / jin; the rest of the provinces fell 0.1-0.2 yuan.
From a short-term point of view, the rebound in pig prices in recent days is mainly because on October 10, the state began to launch the second round of central reserve pork storage work, which boosted the market, and then superimposed pig prices fell to a low level near 5 yuan, and the sentiment of reluctance to sell, as well as pork consumption entering the peak season, appeared a wave of rebound. At present, the main positive factors have been cashed in, coupled with the strengthening of the willingness to breed out of the pen, resulting in another decline in pig prices.
The price of cattle and sheep accompanied by the decline in pig prices has not stopped falling, poor performance, of which cattle prices have dropped by about 2,000-3,000 yuan per head on average compared with the Spring Festival, and the price of small bulls has dropped by at least 2,000 yuan per head, and the price of heifers is acceptable, the decline is not large, especially the high-quality generation and the second generation, about 500 pounds of weight can still be sold to about 12,000 yuan, while the price of bulls of the same weight can only be sold to a slightly more than 10,000 yuan. The price in the northeast region is slightly lower, and the bulls of more than 1300 kilograms in a bull market only sell for 22600 yuan, which is at least 3000-4000 yuan cheaper than before the Spring Festival; 400 kilograms of bulls can only be sold for 8000 yuan, at least down 2000 yuan.
Looking at sheep prices, sheep prices in various places are also continuing to decline, Shijiazhuang fattening sheep 13.5 yuan / jin, eliminated ewe 11.5 yuan / jin; Hebei Tang County Xiaowei Han sheep 13.7-13.9 yuan / jin; Qiqihar eliminated ewe 12.5 yuan / jin; Shandong Yanwo Xinmin sheep 13.9 yuan / jin. From the price point of view, the current sheep prices are 2-3 yuan / catty lower than before the Spring Festival, and a sheep is about 300-500 yuan cheaper.
Beef and mutton prices have also declined, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs on October 15 monitoring data: the national average price of beef 76.62 yuan / kg, down 0.6% from the previous day; the average price of mutton 70.21 yuan / kg, down 0.5% from the previous day.
In some places, the price is significantly lower than this average price, among which the beef in the Dongwajiao Farmers' Market in Inner Mongolia is 30 yuan a catty, the beef in Anyuan Chunlei Farmers' Market in Pingxiang City is 25 yuan / jin, the Shaanxi Xinqiao Industrial Development Co., Ltd. is 34 yuan / jin, and the Shandong Zibo Luzhong Vegetable Wholesale Market is 35 yuan / jin.
The main reasons for the decline in the price of cattle and sheep are: First, the amount of breeding has increased, because cattle and sheep have been earned in previous years, resulting in many villagers following the trend of breeding, and cattle and sheep will inevitably drop in price. Customs data show that in the first 8 months of 2021, imported beef was 1.53 million tons, an increase of 9.1% year-on-year. In the first eight months, up to 300,000 tons of mutton were imported. Third, the price of pork is too cheap, after entering the second half of the year, the price of pork plummeted, the current average price of pork in the country has fallen below the 10 yuan mark, some areas of low-priced provinces have fallen to the price range of 7-9 yuan, and even some local special price pork has dropped to 3.98 yuan / kg of the root limit price, resulting in the impact on beef and mutton consumption.
In the first half of the year, due to the sharp decline in aquaculture, due to the epidemic factors of imported aquatic products and other factors, fish prices rose sharply in the first half of the year, but after entering July, with the gradual increase in the number of new fish on the market, fish prices began to fall, and after entering September and October, prices continued to fall.
According to the latest data, the price of grass carp pond mouth continued to fall in the recent week, and the price of grass carp weighing 2-3 kilograms (October 8 to October 15) fell by an average of 0.1-0.8 yuan, of which Guangdong Zhongshan Kaiping, Taishan, Xinhui, Hubei Huangshiyangxin and other places have dropped below 5 yuan. Last week, Hubei Jingzhou Zhongxiang grass carp fell 0.8 yuan per kilogram to 5.0 yuan / catty; Wuhan Dongxi Lake fell 0.5 yuan, 5.0 yuan / catty; Hunan Yiyang Nan County fell 0.4 yuan, 4.8 yuan / catty.
Crucian carp prices fell sharply, causing market concern, among which the largest decline in Hubei Jingzhou more than 5 crucian carp weekly (October 8-15) plunged 2.0 yuan / catty, down to 5 yuan / catty; Jiangmen Xinhui County fell 1.0 yuan per catty, to 9.0 yuan / catty; Jiangsu Yancheng Sheyang fell 1.0 yuan per catty, down to 15 yuan / catty.
There is also a large decline in the price of California sea bass, many places fell by more than 1 yuan per kilogram, of which: Guangdong Foshan Leliu 8 two California per catty fell 1.5 yuan, down to 14.5 yuan / catty; Foshan apricot tan 7 two prices fell 1.5 yuan, down to 12.5 yuan / jin; Foshan Shunde 8 fell 1 yuan, 14.5 yuan / jin; Sichuan Chengdu 1 kg weight fell 1 yuan, 16.5 yuan / jin; Beijing Pingdu 1 kg fell 1 yuan, down to 17 yuan / jin.
Regarding the decline in fish prices, the mainstream view of the market is mainly because of the sharp rise in fish prices in the first half of the year, resulting in a sharp increase in the amount of aquaculture, resulting in a sharp increase in the volume of ponds in the second half of the year, coupled with the decline in the price of pork, beef and mutton, which has an impact on fish prices, and the superposition of various factors has led to a decline in the price of fish.
Dear friends, in the face of the current pig price rebound after the 2-day continuous decline, as well as cattle and sheep prices "collective collapse", fish prices continue to fall, personally believe that before the Spring Festival consumption pull, pig prices, beef and mutton prices, fish prices will have a certain range of rise, but the space is limited, it is expected that pig prices will not exceed 8 pieces, what do you think? (Text/Sannong Guangxun)