Since entering May, pig prices across China have rebounded strongly from the deep decline in the market that has lasted for several months, and between the rise and fall of pork prices, the "pig cycle" has frequently hurt farmers, the weak underbelly of the industry has been repeatedly exposed, the breeding pig relies on imports, feed prices are subject to people, and the degree of industrial intensification is low, and a series of industry drawbacks have forced to ask the big question of "how can the meat bowl be stable". In addition, when pig prices were in a deep decline, the Economic Reference Daily reporter found that although the domestic pig industry has "overcapacity", pork imports may even be smuggled into the country. In contrast to the decline in pig prices, the price of feed, which depends to a considerable extent on imports, is rising.
Industry insiders suggest that "pig food is safe in the world", we must accelerate the pace of China's pig industry on the road of integrated operation and development, enhance the confrontation with the United States, the European Union and other international large meat enterprises, and it is advisable to enhance the control of "meat bowls" from the perspective of feed, breeding pigs, circulation and other whole industrial chains.
Breeding pigs are overly dependent on imports
China is a big country in pig breeding and consumption, and the breeding pig resources that can best reflect the scientific and technological content and added value have long been imported, which is a major problem that has long plagued the industry.
China's annual consumption of pig meat has exceeded 50 million tons, but the vast majority of commercial pork breeding sources rely on imports, and the local pig market share is extremely small. "Most of the breeding pigs that determine the quality of pork rely on imports, and the disadvantage is that on the one hand, the price is subject to people, and some enterprises spend a lot of money to buy only foreign breeding pigs; on the other hand, there is a great risk of epidemics." Chen Luoping, general manager of Zhengbang Group Commodity Pig Jiangxi Company, a key national leading enterprise in agricultural industrialization, said.
Huang Fengyan, director of the Bureau of Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Medicine of Jiangxi Province, said that most of China's small and medium-sized farms have heavy introduction and light breeding, because of poor technical breeding, low management level, poor pig house environment and other factors, resulting in enterprise breeding falling into a bad cycle of "introduction - degradation - re-introduction - re-degradation".
According to industry insiders, the United States, Canada, Denmark and other countries have state-led breeding systems or organizations, and almost all excellent seed sources have been collected. China lacks a pig breeding system based on the guidance of government organizations, and the main body of pig breeding is mainly large enterprises.
The reporter learned in the interview that the breeding source of Zhengbang Group is mainly canadian. Since 2008, more than 1600 seeds have been introduced, and joint breeding with Canada, investing a lot of manpower, material resources and technology, and under the guidance of foreign breeding technology, a breeding system has been quickly established. At present, breeding technology has been synchronized with Canada. The bred "double muscle buttocks" big white pig has passed the technical appraisal of the Ministry of Agriculture and the evaluation opinion is "international advanced level".
Respondents generally believe that the construction of China's breeding system is still in its infancy, and we should accelerate the establishment of China's own pig breeding system to control the source of "meat bowl" quality.
Feed prices are subject to people
At present, the international market dominates the supply and price of pig feed. China is the country with the largest purchase of soybean meal in the world, with an annual demand of about 80 million tons, of which 80% depends on imports.
This round of "pig cycle" in the deep decline in the market, feed prices by the impact of the international market and rise. Jiao Liande, purchasing director of Zhengbang Group, who has been engaged in pig industry research for nearly 30 years, introduced that 60% of pig feed is jade rice and 20% is soybeans. Since February, affected by the international soybean market, soybean meal has risen by 500 to 600 yuan per ton. According to the Ministry of Agriculture, by the second week of May, feed prices were still rising, and the national average price of corn was 2.40 yuan / kg, up 0.8% from the previous week. The national average price of soybean meal was 4.12 yuan / kg, up 0.2% from the previous week.
The industry believes that in order to stabilize the "meat bowl" in the hand, it should enhance the right to speak in the upstream feed of the industry. Jiao Liande said that at present, the international market dominates the supply and price of pig feed. China is the world's largest purchase of soybean meal, the annual demand of about 80 million tons, of which 80% rely on imports, and the import is mostly dependent on the UNITED States futures pricing, domestic soybean meal, soybean oil prices are also closely following the trend of U.S. soybean prices.
According to Jiao Liande, despite the bumper soybean harvest in the United States in the past two years, the price has not fallen sharply. Soybean meal only accounts for 20% of the feed, but it accounts for half of the cost changes for farmers. The price of corn per ton fluctuates only by two or three hundred yuan, while the price of soybean meal fluctuates by two or three thousand yuan.
Accelerated industrial upgrading is imminent
Due to the limited degree of intensification of China's pig industry and the weak industrial base, the interviewees generally said that to fundamentally solve the problem of cyclical fluctuations in pig production, it is necessary to take into account the overall plan, comprehensive policy, combination of long and short terms, and treatment of both symptoms and root causes.
"Since the beginning of this year, in the face of deep decline in pig prices, China has boosted market confidence through measures such as collecting and storing frozen pork and increasing loans." Various localities have also adopted measures such as guiding breeding entities to adjust their structure, strengthen innovation in pig insurance products, and develop commercial pig insurance products. However, in the long run, it is urgent to guide the industry to accelerate the road of integrated operation and establish a modern management system. Huang Fengyan said.
Chen Luoping believes that China's pig industry has experienced several periods in the past 30 years, the first decade of this century has entered a period dominated by large-scale breeding, and after 2011, it has entered an accelerated transition period to the development of modern animal husbandry, that is, the development of integrated operation.
Li Guoxiang, a researcher at the Institute of Rural Development of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said that the price of pork in China has been fluctuating greatly, with fluctuations of up to 50% or more, and the important reason is that China's industrial concentration is not enough.
In addition, Huang Fengyan analyzed that there are 60 million pig breeding entities in China, and it is difficult to transmit market information in a timely manner, and it is also difficult to regulate. The pig price fluctuation, the state has also issued early warning information, but not necessarily all in place.
Zhong Xinfu, director of the Information Center of the Jiangxi Provincial Bureau of Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Medicine, believes that the domestic pig industry chain is very fragmented, and the four major companies in the United States control more than 60% of the country's pork supply; the small and medium-sized pig farms in the European Union have joined forces to establish cooperatives for industrial chain integration, and the core of both is an integrated development path.
Li Guoxiang suggested that to promote the healthy development of the pig industry, it is necessary to optimize and integrate the breeding of pigs, the breeding of commercial pigs, transportation and marketing, processing, slaughtering and other links, cultivate the industrial chain of the pig industry through industry integration, develop order production or contract production, and establish a modern agricultural production and operation system. "You can establish a factor trading market so that farmers who want to exit the market can withdraw."
Zhong Xinfu held that the development of integrated operation is conducive to ensuring the quality of agricultural products and the safety of supply. The reporter learned from the Zhengbang Group headquartered in Nanchang that the company implemented self-breeding and self-rearing of pigs, invested 150 million yuan in the construction of industrial standardization and traceability information management system in many breeding bases in Jiangxi Province and outside the province, and at the same time used the veterinary drugs and feed produced by the group itself, to slaughter in its own slaughterhouse, and then sent to various counters for sale, forming a traceable food safety industry chain from "pastoral" to "dining table".
Make good use of the futures market to stabilize the "meat bowl"
Experts believe that accelerating the construction of the pig futures market, good at using the futures market, enhance the voice of China's pig industry in the world.
Li Guoxiang believes that with the futures market, farmers can timely understand the future market price trend through the futures trading market, reasonably adjust the scale of breeding, and reduce the blindness of production and operation. Pork processing enterprises have also strengthened their ability to cope with pork price fluctuations and the risk of price fluctuations of stored and processed products. At the same time, it is also conducive to forming a linkage with the futures market of corn, soybean meal and other feed raw materials, which accounts for more than 80% of the total cost of pig breeding, establishing and improving the futures system of agricultural and animal husbandry products, and forming a breeding arbitrage relationship between feed raw materials and pigs.
Some insiders suggested that on the basis of continuously promoting integrated operation, pig futures contract standards suitable for China's national conditions can be established. According to the current situation of trading in the main production and marketing areas of the country, pig futures contracts corresponding to different quality standards are designed and traded and delivered separately. Through industrial integration, variety promotion, etc., after the conditions are ripe, formulate a national unified pig quality standard and a unified contract, and clearly stipulate the increase and discount of different levels of pig prices.
At the same time, improve the pig market circulation system, develop a pig breeding information platform, combine the pig spot, futures market and rural informatization development, and establish a pig breeding information network covering all breeding areas. In addition, the creation of pig price indexes, etc. can be considered, and spot transactions can be directly benchmarked by the price index to guide producers to avoid market risks.