The effects of the "submarine crisis" continued in September, with France and Australia arguing all the way from Rome to Scotland.
French President Emmanuel Macron accused the other side of "lying", and then Australian Prime Minister Morrison refused to apologize. The Dispute between France and Australia has not yet seen a downward trend.
In contrast, France's attitude toward the United States is much kinder, first arranging a call between the heads of state of the United States and then holding a face-to-face meeting to announce to the outside world that the two sides are rebuilding trust.
Morrison, on the other hand, not only made many unsuccessful phone calls, but did not talk to Macron until the end of October, but the evaluation in the communication was that "trust has been destroyed."
"Now The Franco-Australian relationship has fallen into a trough." The American Broadcasting Corporation (ABC) wrote that.
It is worth noting that behind Macron's "anger". Experts analyzed that in addition to being angry because the Australian side tore up the contract, Macron also wanted to "show strength" on diplomatic issues, proving that he could provide a "sense of security" for the French people, and the sword pointed out the French election next year.
Who's lying? All sides talk into "Rashomon"
"I don't think (Morrison) is lying, I know." Macron said on the sidelines of the Sixteenth Summit of the Group of Twenty (G20) Leaders.
Macron is still angry about the Australian side's breach of the treaty.
On September 15, local time, the United States, Britain and Australia announced the establishment of the so-called new trilateral security partnership (aukus), Australia will cooperate with the United States and Britain to build nuclear submarines, and the Australian side also tore up the contract signed with France to purchase 12 submarines worth tens of billions of dollars. CNN noted that the tearing up of the contract is expected to have a significant economic impact on the French defense sector.
In addition, International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director General Grossi warned that other countries could follow Australia's use of "aukus" to build nuclear submarines, with serious nuclear proliferation and legal consequences.
France's anger doesn't stop there, it claims to have been stabbed in the back by its allies and completely in the dark. The US side is also "helping" on the side. U.S. President Joe Biden mentioned in a face-to-face meeting with Macron that he was under the impression that the French side should have been told that the contract might not be fulfilled, admitting that it should not surprise allies.
The spearhead was then aimed at Australia.
Morrison, apparently unwilling to be labeled a liar, responded during the 26th Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP26) that such stigma would not be accepted.
Australian Foreign Minister Payne admitted at the Senate hearing that it was because of the sensitivity of the "aukus" that France had not been informed in advance. Morrison further explained that in fact, when he met with Macron in June this year, he told the other side that the Australian side intended to abandon the submarine contract between the two countries.
France accused Australia of leaking text messages from French President Emmanuel Macron. /Social media screenshots
According to the Guardian, the Australian media "Daily Telegraph" exposed macron's text message content. Two days before the "aukus" was announced, Macron had sent a message to Morrison, which read, "Should I expect good news or bad news for our submarine contract?" ”
The British "Guardian" pointed out that the text message proved that the establishment of "aukus" was not so unexpected by France, macron has been worried about whether the submarine contract can be fulfilled, but this also reflects from the side, until two days before the contract was torn up, Macron still did not know Australia's final decision.
The exposure of the private text message between the leaders made France "very angry", and the French ambassador to Australia, Teber, said the leak of the text message did not help repair the confidence of the relationship between the two countries, "in terms of trust and truth, this is an unprecedented new low [between the two countries].
In response to the French accusations, Australia has not budged, and believes that the French side has overreacted. According to the Associated Press, on November 1, local time, Australian Deputy Prime Minister Barnaby Joyce said, "We did not steal a small island, nor did we damage the Eiffel Tower." Joyce pointed out that since France and Australia have reached a contract, the contract may be terminated.
France reacted violently, or there was some calculation. Mu Gengyuan, an assistant researcher at the European Institute of the China Institute of International Studies, explained to the Beijing News reporter that during Macron's administration, the domestic affairs bonus points were limited, and it caught up with the outbreak of the new crown epidemic. France is about to usher in a general election next year, want to seek re-election, in fact, to a large extent rely on diplomatic performance, France has always had a "big country complex", Macron 'showed strength" to the outside world is also hoping to send a signal to the French people.
Successive communications, Macron's attitude towards the United States and Australia is very different
In fact, since the beginning of the "submarine crisis", France's attitude towards the three countries involved in this matter has been very different.
Initially, France only recalled its ambassadors to the United States and Australia, not to britain. French Foreign Minister Le Dreyon explained that because he knew about the country's "opportunistic policies", there was no need to recall the ambassador to explain. Britain's role in this matter is like a "light bulb".
In the United States and Australia, France's attitude towards the United States is more peaceful.
As soon as the "submarine crisis" came out, on September 22, local time, Macron and Biden had a phone call to discuss the impact of "aukus". More than a month later, the two also met face-to-face in Rome, Italy, on the eve of the G20 summit. Biden acknowledged that the United States handled the matter "clumsily", repeatedly stressing the importance of France as an ally and that the United States and France should "rebuild trust".
In contrast, Australia wants to make a phone call with France and has to wait more than a month. On the day the "aukus" was announced, Morrison had wanted to call Macron to explain, but had not been connected. Morrison then said he tried to contact Macron, but never had the chance to talk.
French President Emmanuel Macron said Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison lied to him. /Social media screenshots
It was not until October 28, local time, that the Leaders of France and Australia spoke for the first time after the "Submarine Crisis". For now, though, the phone call hasn't had a therapeutic effect.
From France's response to the "customization" of each of the three countries, it is not difficult to see France's intentions. Cui Hongjian, director of the European Institute of the China Institute of International Studies, said in an interview with the Beijing News that although France looks angry, it has "numbers" in mind. In view of the balance of power between the United States and France, France recalled its ambassador to the United States just to let Biden take a stand. Judging from the meeting between the two sides, France has only received empty promises and has not received actual compensation from the US side.
Australia is the "direct party" to the matter. Cui Hongjian added that France has hit back most deeply against Australia, successively pinning hats such as "perfidy" and "lying" on the head of the Australian side. Now France is holding on to this matter, on the one hand, it wants to eliminate the negative impact of "aukus" on the French military industry. On the other hand, it also wants to reflect the importance of France in the Western camp through diplomatic reactions, and brush up on the international "sense of existence".
In addition, the different attitudes also reflect to some extent the difference in the importance of the three countries in the hearts of France. According to the analysis of the mother farming source, France is about to assume the rotating presidency of the European Union and needs the support of the United States in promoting the strategic autonomy of the European Union and counter-terrorism in the Sahel region of West Africa. The dialogue between the United States and France has advanced rapidly, and there are also such considerations. Although the UK has "left the EU", britain and France also cooperate on European defense issues. In fact, France does not regard Australia as a "big country" of equal status, and this betrayal by Australia has made France lose face.
Trust has been lost, and Franco-Australian relations have fallen into a trough
"Trust between us has been broken." Macron said to Morrison on the phone.
The dispute between France and Australia has begun to have a joint reaction.
The EU has clearly sided with France after the Submarine Crisis. It is worth mentioning that Australia's free trade negotiations with the EU have been postponed twice. According to Reuters, the 12th round of talks was first postponed from October to November, and then postponed to February 2022. While the EU did not give an official reason for the delay, EU officials revealed that the Submarine Crisis did make the EU rethink free trade agreement negotiations.
In addition to solidarity with France, Cui Hongjian believes that the main reason for the EU's response to this is that the launch of "aukus" has also clearly hit the EU's so-called "Indo-Pacific strategy" and robbed the EU of the limelight.
According to Xinhua News Agency, in April this year, the EU Foreign Ministers Council released the "EU Indo-Pacific Cooperation Strategy Report", which details the background, considerations, paths and visions of the EU's participation in Indo-Pacific affairs, highlighting the strengthening of pragmatic cooperation and military expansion in the Indo-Pacific region.
On November 1, 2021, local time, Glasgow, Uk. Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison (right) attended the 26th Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change at the Summit of World Leaders. Figure /ic photo
However, the EU's postponement of free trade negotiations may be more about showing "posture". Cui Hongjian analyzed that in fact, the negotiations themselves are not too much of a problem, after showing the EU's support for France, it is difficult to postpone indefinitely, otherwise other EU countries will raise objections, so that France will become isolated within the EU.
The answer given by Macron is to see what Australia does in the future.
Asked if he could trust Morrison again, Macron said he was full of respect and friendship for the Australian people, and when respecting each other, the other party also needed to be honest and keep words and deeds consistent.
In the long run, the Franco-Australian relationship will not completely break down. Mother Gengyuan pointed out that if France wants to promote the so-called "Indo-Pacific strategy", it is difficult to completely abandon Australia, and France also needs Australia's support to promote environmental protection issues in the Indo-Pacific region. Overall, France still needs to maintain its relationship with Australia, but as things stand, this requires Australia to take the lead in taking action to demonstrate its sincerity in improving relations with France.
High and low, the EU's road to strategic autonomy
In fact, as soon as the "aukus" incident came out, many French think tanks and scholars published articles discussing Macron's foreign policy.
Among them, Michel Duclos, a senior French diplomat and special adviser to the Montaigne Institute, analyzed that France has suffered from the alliance between the United States, Australia and the United Kingdom in the "Indo-Pacific region", and the so-called alliance is not so reliable. France is experiencing a kind of "strategic loneliness.")
This incident also brought the issue of the EU's strategic autonomy to the forefront again. BBC noted that Zosse Borrelli, eu high representative for foreign affairs and security policy, said this was a wake-up call for Europe and they had to take the initiative. European Commission President von der Leyen has also called for a "european defence union".
"Aukus" was an embarrassing wake-up call for Europe. /Social media screenshots
Macron has also long advocated the EU's strategic autonomy. On September 28, local time, France and Greece reached a defense and security partnership agreement, which it also said was "the first bold step towards the EU's strategic autonomy."
But there is no market for EU strategic autonomy within the EU. The BBC noted that the EU does not have strong military power, and even if the EU can figure out how to show more power, it must also decide what it is for, and it will not be easy.
Cui Hongjian pointed out that from the perspective of political status, military strength and industrial system, France is obviously a big country in the EU, so France's understanding of foreign policy is different from other EU countries. During the era of former U.S. President Trump, their differences were somewhat masked. After Biden took office, he stressed that "the United States is back", and the "transatlantic faction" within the European Union was encouraged, hoping to survive under the protection of the United States, which contradicted the strategic autonomy advocated by France.
"It can also be seen from this that although France 'sings' About Europe's strategic autonomy, it takes a lot of effort to shape France's concerns and goals into the consensus of EU countries, otherwise it is inevitable to be 'high and low'." France faces a dual dilemma in geopolitics and diplomatic security, both to demonstrate France's presence and independence at the level of great power diplomacy, and to form influence and dominance among EU countries with different wills and capabilities. Cui Hongjian said.
Beijing News reporter Luan Ruoxi
Edited by Zhang Lei, Proofreader Wu Xingfa