The "outlying islands" plot of Japan's maritime plan

Pang Zhongpeng

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe recently said in a speech at the "Sea Day" related event that in September 2017, the World Maritime Security Chiefs' Meeting will be held in Japan, and the latest Ocean Basic Plan will be decided at the Japanese Cabinet Meeting in April 2018.

Abe said one of the key tasks of Japan's third Basic Plan for the Sea is to strengthen "territorial coastal security." Jun Matsumoto, head of Japan's maritime policy, said that the outlying islands are the base of Japan's vast maritime management.

The Abe administration's "maritime power" strategy is stepping up its implementation, and the relevant actions may add more "unexpected" factors to the already unstable regional and even international situation.

Three Ocean Basic Plans

Japan has always considered itself a "maritime nation" and seeks to become a maritime power again. In April 2007, the Japanese Diet passed the Basic Law on the Sea, which is a basic regulation that plans japan's future "maritime nation-building".

The regulation clearly points out that Japan, which is surrounded by the sea, seeks a new type of maritime state in accordance with the United Nations treaties on the law of the sea and other international conventions on the law of the sea, and in international cooperation to realize the sustainable development and utilization of the oceans and seas. The adoption and implementation of this regulation marks That Japan has officially disclosed its confidence and "declaration" in attaching importance to oceans, the protection of outlying islands, and the strategic waterways of the sea, and other marine-related strategic matters.

In March 2008, at a cabinet meeting, Japan adopted the first Basic Plan for the Oceans, which is a specific action guide to guide Japan's maritime affairs and is valid for 5 years. It was in the first Japanese Ocean Basic Plan that in September 2012 the Japanese government made an illegal decision to "nationalize" China's Diaoyu Dao and its affiliated islands.

In April 2013, Japan adopted its second Basic Plan for oceans, led by the re-elected Abe cabinet, which highlights marine resource surveys, the protection of outlying islands, and the strengthening of a surveillance system in the waters surrounding Japan.

On June 30, 2015, the Japanese government held a meeting of the General Marine Policy Headquarters (headed by Prime Minister Abe) and established a new basic policy on the preservation and management of "outlying islands", which clearly stated that it would establish a "security special team system" composed of large patrol ships near the Diaoyu Islands within fiscal 2015. The basic policy stated that it would speed up the process of "nationalization" of about 280 unowned islands that are the base point of Japan's territorial sea, with the aim of "strengthening the management of the territorial sea."

On July 17, 2017, Abe clearly pointed out that next spring, we will begin to formulate a new "Basic Plan for the Ocean", formulate specific countermeasures in the areas of marine industry utilization, marine safety and security, territorial coastal security, public security assurance, disaster countermeasures and protection of outlying islands, plan and formulate a comprehensive plan around the ocean and many other situations, and promote a broad-ranging marine strategy nationwide.

The plot of the "outlying islands solution"

Some analysts pointed out that the so-called "outlying islands" in Japan refer to islands other than Honshu, Hokkaido, Shikoku, Kyushu, and islands connected to the four major islands with public transportation facilities such as bridges or tunnels. The Japanese side believes that most of the more than 400 outlying islands that can be used as a basis for the scope of Japan's territorial waters have not been determined whether there are private island owners.

Of the charts produced by the Japan Coast Guard, 200 belong to the unnamed islands. After Japan grasps the status of these islands, it will name the unnamed islands and include them in the map of Japan. As early as 2009, when the Democratic Party of Japan came to power, Japan conducted a survey, when more than 400 islands around Japan were used as the basis for the boundary between Japan's territorial waters and economic seas, and only 99 were surveyed at that time.

On April 1, 2017, Japan officially implemented the Law on Special Measures for the Protection of Manned Islands to strengthen support and control over manned islands. The main content of the Act is to promote the acquisition of land to prevent the illegal entry of foreign ships, etc., and to strengthen the role of outlying islands as bases of activity.

Japanese media said that in recent years, the phenomenon of foreign capital purchasing land on outlying islands has increased, and there has been a worrying situation in terms of safety and security. Based on this, the Japanese government judged that it was necessary to use the outlying islands as a stronghold for preserving the territorial sea and exclusive economic waters to prevent the "over-thinning" of the local population.

The Act on Special Measures for the Protection of Manned Islands, based on the previous Law on the Revitalization of Outlying Islands and other laws, lists 148 islands as "manned outlying islands". Of these, 71 islands, which are geographically and strategically important on the border, are classified as "specially manned outlying islands" and wish to actively maintain their "maritime activity base function".

According to the Act, the Japanese government will make special financial allocations for the "maintenance of the local community" of these outlying islands to avoid the "unmanned" of these islands and enable them to continue to play the role of the "frontier of the border" of japan's oceans. Specific measures include the purchase of land at the expense of the state, the construction and repair of harbors and infrastructure such as fishing ports, roads and airports, and the installation of the Coast Guard to prevent "illegal entry" and related facilities of the Ministry of Defense.

Behind the Ocean Plan

The "outlying islands plan" is the "slice" of the entire Japan Ocean Plan, and the step-by-step upgrade of the "Outlying Islands Plan" represents the step-by-step upgrading of the Japan Ocean Plan. Behind the ocean plan is the Japanese government's "dream of a political and military power."

First of all, we should regard the ocean as a springboard and regard the sea as an important strategic step on Japan's path to becoming a political and military power. In recent years, the pace of Japan's transition to the path of political and military power has further accelerated, especially in the past five years since Abe's second administration, Japan's momentum of "adventurous" in the military and political fields is very strong, such as the lifting of the ban on the forbidden area after World War II - the implementation of the right of collective self-defense, intending to achieve the attempt to amend the peace constitution in one fell swoop in 2020, paving the way for the final Japanese military to "justify" going overseas and smoothly exercising force.

The expansion of influence in the geopolitics of the ocean is the best breakthrough for the implementation of the right of collective self-defense and the exercise and expansion of military power overseas.

Second, we should demand energy resources from the oceans and make them an important source for Japan to ensure energy security. Japan is a country with a serious lack of energy reserves such as oil and gas, and most of the energy sources such as oil and gas required for its economic and social development depend on overseas imports, in order to disperse the risks caused by heavy dependence on overseas energy imports, Japan has vigorously implemented the strategy of diversifying energy sources in recent years, and the exploitation of seabed energy resources is one of the important contents.

In recent years, the Japanese side has tried every means to "turn Okino bird reef into an island", and one of the important reasons is that the waters around Okino bird reef have important economic and strategic value.

Third, with the sea as the lifeline, ensuring the safety of sea lanes is an important strategic safeguard measure for Japan to carry out economic cooperation.

In Japan's view, its domestic market is limited, and establishing a country with trade and actively carrying out economic trade with overseas is one of the important tricks for Japan to become an economic power, but trade with other countries inevitably crosses the sea, so ensuring the safety and smoothness of important sea lanes has become one of the necessary conditions for Japan to maintain overseas trade exchanges.

Ruyi abacus is not easy to play

However, "the ideal is very full, the reality is very bone". Japan's ocean plan's wishful thinking will not be easy to start.

First of all, after the Trump administration came to power, the ambiguity and uncertainty of its Asia-Pacific policy have cast a shadow over Japan's implementation of the maritime power strategy. For example, the withdrawal of the United States from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) hit Japan hard. On the surface, the TPP is only a multilateral trade framework, but in essence, it represents an international maritime order that Japan values — the Pacific international trade order dominated by Japan and the United States.

Second, Japan has territorial disputes with some countries over islands and reefs, which restrict the in-depth development of Japan's maritime strategy. For example, Abe's eagerness to improve Japan-Russia relations in recent years, in addition to wanting to achieve a diplomatic breakthrough on the issue of the four northern islands (known to Russia as the South Kuril Islands), which has been disputed between Japan and Russia for a long time, has a strategic purpose, that is, to get Russia's cooperation in the "use of Arctic shipping lanes" and to increase Japan's influence in the Arctic region, if not cooperate, at least not to oppose.

However, the territorial dispute is tantamount to a "solid ice" between Japan and Russia, which seriously hinders the pace of improving relations between Japan and Russia. The stagnation of Japan-Russia relations will bring great constraints and uncertainties to the efforts and attempts of Japan's maritime strategy to extend its tentacles to the Arctic and Arctic Ocean regions.

In addition, the voice of peace and progress in Japan will also compress the space of Japan's maritime strategy to a certain extent. Recently, the approval rating of Abe's cabinet has been declining, and it is on the verge of danger. In the nearly five years since Abe returned to power, many people have been disappointed by the drastic "turn to the right" policy. Some Japanese people are worried that under the condition that the peace constitution is greatly revised, Japanese warships can be freely dispatched to any sea area in the world (including conflict areas), at which time, the self-defense forces members on Japanese warships may be killed in the line of duty or killed in unfathomable circumstances, which will be unbearable pain for the Japanese people.

In view of this, the various factions in Japan's domestic political circles will continue to engage in fierce political games in terms of revising the peace constitution and freely sending troops overseas, which will also restrict the further development of Japan's maritime strategy.

(The author is an associate researcher at the Institute of Japanese Studies, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences)