An exploration of the minimum circulation of minisal notes and small promissory notes

The circulation of the free edition in 2020 and 2021 is 5.26 million, which includes package tickets (including the yearbook), small edition, large edition, four-square company, and lucky bag blind box, a total of 5 varieties. Other annual albums or product books have not seen a gift version, it can be seen that the current gift version is basically issued on demand, there should be inventory, but the amount will not be much, here is not counted.

The number of free editions has not changed for two consecutive years, which means that the number of package bookings in these two years is almost the same. At present, the 2020 and 2021 annual passes as a whole have not been discounted, and 2020 is almost the face value, and there is still a 17% increase in 2021. It can be seen that the number of new mail bookings in 2022 will not be significantly reduced, after all, there is a certain profit, and many people will flock to it.

The minimum circulation of sheets can theoretically be less than that of the free version, because small version pre-orderers do not supply sheets. How many small version of the booking household, the network transmission of 500,000, but should be more, because the minimum circulation of the small version is 900,000, now the postal service to produce boutique, the reduction is the first priority, all varieties are compressing, and the amount of booking is getting closer and closer, it is impossible to have more than 400,000, it is expected that the small version of the booking volume is about 700,000 sets, 526-70 = 4.56 million, 4.56 million sets should be the booking household just needed, the reduction to 3 million is impossible, even the booking volume is not enough.

But the small sheet also has retail and first day cover usage, this part is also just needed, the general theme is about 150,000, so it is 4.71 million. In addition, there are inventory, product books, annual albums and other needs, for the popular theme of small sheets for the amount of product book inventory will be greater, but now the postal service is also compressing the use of these items, after all, the market is not good, out of more can not sell, and finally it is better to reduce the amount. The general genre is about 500,000, or 5.21 million is the minimum circulation of small sheets. The minimum circulation of miniature sheets in 2021 is 5.9 million, and there is still room for reduction of about 700,000.

The circulation of small books will be reformed next year, and small bookers will not supply small books, which can save 700,000 yuan. After this reform, in addition to the small version of the reservation household is not supplied, some package booking households can also choose not to book the small book, you can save 30 yuan. Although there are not many people who choose 160, it is expected that at least a quarter of the package tickets will not include the small book, so there are also 500,000. 526-70-50=4.06 million. The postal service claimed that next year's zodiac small book will be reduced by 25%, that is, 4.72 million, and the minimum amount of small book is 4.06 million, which is still 660,000 in the middle.

Zodiac books will also be provided to some product books, in addition to the retail volume will also have some, but certainly very few, may not exceed 50,000.

Zodiac small book as a popular variety circulation will be slightly more than other themes, of course, since 2015, there are only small copies of the zodiac every year, if this year more than one small book, the circulation should be less than the zodiac small book, may drop to less than 4.5 million. The minimum amount of small books should also consider the use of some product books, inventory, retail, annual books, etc., but the demand is not as good as small sheets, small sheets as long as they are annual albums must be brought, but small promissory notes are only partially available, these amounts are about 300,000, so that the minimum amount of small books is about 4.36 million.

In summary, the minimum amount of small (full) tickets is 5.21 million, and small promissory notes are 4.36 million. The actual circulation is still slightly higher than the minimum amount, and there is still room for reduction, especially for small (full) sheets.

Source: Postal Sea Floating Clouds