On the first floor of a commercial and residential apartment in Futian District, Shenzhen, it was originally a variety of restaurants, and after the epidemic, all of them were vacant for rent, and no new businesses have settled so far
China Times (chinatimes.net.cn) reporter Sui Loulou Yang Shi Province Shenzhen photo report
"I've never seen a time like this, when people go home after work." The owner of a restaurant in Longhua District, Shenzhen told the "China Times" reporter that there are many factories and miscellaneous personnel nearby, and this spring, the factory recruitment has shrunk a lot, and many old customers have not met for a long time.
Shenzhen has always been a paradise for "adventurers" and foreigners, with the permanent non-registered population accounting for more than 65% of the permanent population, ranking the forefront of the country. However, the pandemic seems to be affecting wage earners, and even businesses. Wu Yue (pseudonym), who works in Nanshan District, Shenzhen, told this reporter: "When I went to eat in Coastal City, many shops were rented, there was a shop selling diamond rings, my colleague said that he had been in Coastal City for many years, and today I went to see it and also rented it." ”
Although Shenzhen Metro Line 4 and Line 3 are still very congested during the morning and evening rush hours, from the current situation of shops and small property rights, the inflow of population in Shenzhen so far is not optimistic. The growth rate of Shenzhen's permanent population has declined last year.
According to data released by the Shenzhen Municipal Bureau of Statistics, in 2019, the number of permanent residents in Shenzhen was 13.4388 million, an increase of 412,000 over 2018, compared with 498,300 in 2018. That is to say, although the permanent population of Shenzhen is on the rise, the growth rate is declining.
On the contrary, the "new first-tier" cities represented by Hangzhou have made great strides in the past two years, shoulder to shoulder with first-tier cities. In 2019, Hangzhou's permanent population exceeded 10.36 million, a net increase of 554,000 from the previous year, taking away the champion of the national permanent population increase won by Shenzhen for two consecutive years. In addition, according to the "Talent Attraction Report" released by boss direct employment, in the past two years, Hangzhou has repeatedly surpassed the north and the deep and become the most attractive city in China.
So, after the epidemic, what is the living and working status of different professional groups? Did it become a big reason for them to stay in Shenzhen or leave Shenzhen? What changes have taken place in the industrial structure of the "Pioneering Demonstration Zone of Socialism with Chinese Characteristics" in recent years? The China Times reporter tried to find the answer through a series of interviews and investigations.
Some people resigned and returned to their hometowns, and some people have so far made no achievements
On May 11, Wu Yue returned to the rental office with four large bags of toast bread, which she bought to use up the 60 minus 30 food and beverage coupons issued by Shenzhen's Longhua District in April, while she was also waiting for the lottery results of the second phase of consumption coupons on May 16.
In stark contrast to Wu Yue, Zhang Jie has no interest in consumption coupons. After the epidemic resumed work, Zhang Jie purchased two lunch boxes online and still insists on bringing meals every day. "I don't want to spend because of consumption coupons, and during the quarantine period of resuming work, I also developed the habit of cooking for myself every day, and I also found that the number of takeaway orders was less and saved a lot of money." Zhang Jie told this reporter.
Since the end of March, shenzhen districts have stimulated urban consumption by issuing consumption coupons to Shenzhen citizens, with a total value of more than 400 million yuan in consumption coupons in various districts, and the issuance of coupons in some areas is still continuing. However, this did not shake Li Yifu's (pseudonym) decision to leave Shenzhen. Just a year ago, she started her first business in Shenzhen, and in May this year, she decided to leave Shenzhen to return to her hometown.
In May last year, Li Yifu and dance lovers they had known before registered an art training company in Shenzhen's Futian District and rented a duplex commercial and residential apartment, but their entrepreneurial dreams were hit hard during this year's Spring Festival.
"The studio was originally scheduled to start construction on February 11 (the fifteenth day of the first month), but due to the continuous impact of the epidemic, considering the normal operation of the studio, it is currently facing the situation that it cannot start construction and spends a lot, so it has decided to temporarily cooperate with the landlord to stop leasing here." Originally planned to reopen classes after the epidemic, the location may be adjusted according to the current situation, but Li Yifu knew in her heart that her dance studio could not support it, and she realized that this year's entrepreneurial hardships and not getting along well with partners, so before issuing the notice, she had privately contacted each student for a refund.
On April 7, Li Yifu's studio issued a suspension notice to the students
In fact, Li Yifu is an old "deep drift", and 2020 is the 7th year that Li Yifu has come to Shenzhen. She told the China Times reporter in an unbelievable tone that the forced leave during the epidemic was the first vacation she left for herself after graduating from college, and took this opportunity to re-plan for her future life: leaving Shenzhen and returning to her hometown xi'an to become a self-media.
Li Yifu considered that Shenzhen's dance industry has become saturated, and returning home can also get rid of the pressure of renting, while ending the long-distance relationship brought by deep drift and putting marriage on the agenda. "I shouldn't go back to Shenzhen again." I'm more nostalgic for the people I meet here than I am nostalgic for the city. Li Yifu said.
Compared with Li Yifu, who has been working in Shenzhen for seven years, Gu Kai (pseudonym) is a "Meng Xin". After graduating in 2019, he came to Shenzhen from Guangzhou and is now a foreign trade salesman, mainly helping overseas companies to do procurement and document work.
"I sent two months of development customer letters, did not reply to me, I feel that I can not have business this year ..." Gu Kai told this reporter that the company began to slowly improve internal management in 2019 due to the relocation of headquarters, and only began to develop customers this year, but affected by the epidemic, overseas customer companies are now in a state of shutdown or semi-shutdown, and the response is still relatively small. In addition, Gu Kai and another salesman of the company are both 2019 graduates, and they do not have customer resources, so since the beginning of 2020, the daily work content can be described as "paddling".
"Fortunately, the company is not waged according to the commission, otherwise I would not even be able to pay the rent this year." While Gu Kai is worried about his work, he also has a hint of happiness because the company's salary system is not affected by performance.
As a mother, Cheng Meng (pseudonym) is in a confused state, and due to the soaring housing prices in Shenzhen, Cheng Meng has a slight idea of resigning and leaving Shenzhen.
"It is no longer the era of 'shenzhen people who come here'. The work in the system is about to reach the end of 4 years, the family has no mines, no background, and can be seen at a glance. By retirement, he could barely afford a house. What about family expenses and children's education in the future? Cheng Meng said his worries in one breath.
"In the past two decades, the rate of rise in housing prices in Shenzhen has indeed been very fast, especially for people whose wage growth rate has outperformed real estate, and the idea of leaving Shenzhen in the house of house price pressure may arise, especially in recent years." Song Ding, director of the Real Estate Research Center of China (Shenzhen) Comprehensive Development Research Institute, told this reporter.
Indeed, in today's era, the house is not just a place to live and sleep, especially in first-tier cities, which has brought a lot of financial attributes.
Or are middle- and low-level people losing New first-tier cities become new choices for talents?
In Shenzhen, people are as enthusiastic about grabbing houses during the epidemic as they are about grabbing masks, especially luxury houses.
"After the epidemic at home isolation, as long as the family with abundant assets wants to buy a good house. The pandemic has given the opportunity to everything that can safeguard and enhance the value of life, not just houses. Yin Xiangwu, the founder of the real estate internal reference, explained to this reporter the reason why the Luxury Housing Market in Shenzhen was extremely hot during the epidemic period. Song Ding also pointed out: "The luxury housing market has snapped up because buyers use it as a hedge place to maintain and increase their value. The mainland funds raised and the idle funds invested in Shenzhen are basically investment attributes. ”
In stark contrast, Shenzhen's small property rights housing and commercial housing have been difficult to rent.
Yin Xiangwu said that the epidemic has widened the gap between the rich and the poor, and the most affected are the middle and low-level people, and the low-end leasing in Shenzhen has been affected. The answer given by Song Ding is that there are still many people in Shenzhen who have not returned, so both leasing and sales have encountered resistance.
It is worth asking, after the end of the epidemic, will these people still choose to return to Shenzhen to continue to work? According to the data released by the Shenzhen Municipal Bureau of Statistics, in 2019, the number of permanent residents in Shenzhen was 13.4388 million, an increase of 412,000 over 2018, although the total amount is rising, but the increase is about 17.3% lower than in 2018.
Although it is uncertain whether the flow of people in Shenzhen can be linked to the property market, it is undeniable that the Shenzhen property market is indeed putting increasing pressure on the people of shenzhen drift. In Yin Xiangwu's view, the rise in housing prices in Shenzhen is probably not a matter of one or two years, but a long-term phenomenon.
"Money must have a counterpart, and apart from real estate, there is no such large counterpart. The more money, the higher the m2 value, the higher the house price, which is in line with economic laws. Second, people's income is increasingly shifting from labor to investment. Labor can support itself, but it depends on investment to get rich. Yin Xiangwu told this reporter that due to the frequency conversion of technology today, there are fewer and fewer originals, and research and development is becoming more and more difficult, and funds will naturally gather more and more to the land.
So, will the high housing prices in Shenzhen lead to fewer and fewer people deciding to go to Shenzhen to start a business and work? Song Ding did not think so. "After all, in addition to housing prices, Shenzhen also provides opportunities for many entrepreneurs." At this stage, there are still people who are willing to struggle and strive for the opportunity to buy a house in the future. Today, Shenzhen's population is growing at nearly 500,000 every year, and in the next 5 years or even longer, it will still maintain a net growth space of not less than 200,000, which is far more than Beijing and Shanghai. He said.
Indeed, the number of talents flowing into Shenzhen has not changed significantly, and the growth of talents in the past two years has been almost flat. According to the data released in the Shenzhen government work report, in 2018, fresh college students and various talents accounted for nearly 60% of Shenzhen's new permanent population, reaching 285,000, and in 2019, Shenzhen introduced 280,000 talents.
So, what is the reason for the decline in Shenzhen's population growth? The Migrant Worker Monitoring Survey Report released by the National Bureau of Statistics last year may give some answers. In 2018, the number of migrant workers employed in the central and western regions continued to increase, but the number of migrant workers employed in the eastern and northeastern regions was decreasing, while the number of migrant workers in the eastern coastal areas decreased mainly in the Pearl River Delta.
But it's worth noting that new first-tier cities may be becoming a new choice for talent. According to the "Talent Attraction Report" released by boss direct employment, in the third quarter of 2018, Hangzhou surpassed Beijing as the most attractive city for the first time, and has been ranked in the top three in the past two years, while Shenzhen is often squeezed in the fourth place. However, the report of Evergrande Research Institute and Zhaopin's annual "China City Talent Attractiveness Ranking" is slightly different from the above results, and its statistics show that the top three talent attraction index are only rotated between the north, the deep and the north.
However, after the "new first-tier" cities successively introduced talent attraction policies in 2017, the past two years have indeed achieved results. According to the report released by boss direct employment, in the first quarter of 2018, the talent inflow rate (inflow/outflow) of the 15 "new first-tier" cities represented by Hangzhou, Xi'an, Wuhan, Chengdu and Nanjing was 1.07, an increase of 3.2% over 2016. In the quarter, the proportion of new workplace newcomers who stayed in the local workplace after graduating from universities in new first-tier cities reached 73.8% (including fresh graduates and job seekers with work experience of less than one year), an increase of nearly 20 percentage points over 2016. Among them, the retention rate of fresh graduates in Hangzhou is close to 90%, close to the north, Shanghai and Shenzhen; the inflow rate of highly educated talents (master's degree and above) has reached 1.32, which is significantly ahead of other new first-tier cities.
In addition, in 2019, Hangzhou's permanent population exceeded 10.36 million, a net increase of 554,000 from the previous year, taking away the champion of the national permanent population increase won by Shenzhen for two consecutive years.
Slight changes in the industrial pattern The four ministries and commissions have supported the Greater Bay Area
Behind the decline in population, it also shows that there is no shortage of cities that can provide various employment opportunities for the masses, and Shenzhen's industrial structure has also begun to change subtly.
Lin Jiang, deputy director of the Hong Kong and Macao Pearl River Delta Research Center of Sun Yat-sen University, once pointed out that in addition to the reduction in demand for workers after machine substitution and automation, with the rising costs of land, labor and other land in the Pearl River Delta and other places, some enterprises have moved to the mainland or Southeast Asia, and the scale of production left in the Pearl River Delta has decreased, and there is no need for so many workers.
Not only the workers, but also the securities industry in Shenzhen, which was once in the limelight, was also left behind by the Beijing-Shanghai region, especially after the release of the 2019 securities industry report card, the Shenzhen securities industry was once accused of "declining". According to the statistics of securities companies in China, in the top ten list of securities industry revenue scale in 2019, Shanghai ranked first with 4 seats, Followed by Beijing with 3, and Shenzhen only 1 on the list.
In this regard, Li Peng, executive vice president of the Shenzhen Securities Association, previously analyzed the media that in addition to the satisfaction of mechanism and salary, it is also necessary to have a sense of professional achievement that can enable practitioners to obtain professional achievements, and this year Shenzhen is obviously inferior to Shanghai and Beijing in these aspects.
However, in terms of the financial industry, the state is giving the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area a "cardiotonic agent". On the evening of May 14, the Opinions of the Chinese Bank, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange on Financial Support for the Construction of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area were issued, and the four ministries and commissions jointly pointed out that the financial, securities and insurance industries will be expanded to the outside world. For example, we will study and explore the establishment of an international commercial bank in the Guangdong Pilot Free Trade Zone in the Guangdong Pilot Free Trade Zone, and support the establishment of foreign-controlled securities companies, fund management companies, futures companies and insurance groups in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area in an orderly manner in accordance with the law.
The Shenzhen Center Branch of the People's Bank of China said that the measures that were piloted in Shenzhen in the early stage will be extended to the whole city, "to help the construction of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area and the construction of a pioneering demonstration zone of socialism with Chinese characteristics in Shenzhen to advance in depth." ”
The slogan of "Shenzhen people are coming" is still in the ears. Although the sadness and joy of the Shenzhen property market are sad, what remains unchanged is that Shenzhen is always embracing every dreamer with a broad and tolerant mind.
Editor-in-Charge: Xu Yunqian Editor-in-Chief: Qin Ling