Hello everyone, welcome to the day reading jun. The recent coup d'état in Guinea has touched the nerves of countless melon-eating masses. Are the people of Guinea doing well? Is eagle sauce behind the coup and what conspiracy is being carried out? Most importantly, is the Simandu iron ore mine, which we have high hopes for, going to produce some moths? However, the above concerns are superfluous, because the coup d'état in Guinea has the greatest direct impact on us. Today's video mainly talks about 2 questions:
The current state of the global aluminium industry;
The negative impact of guinea's coup d'état on China's resource strategy;
Please, everyone, three in a row, and we'll start right away!
Aluminum is the most abundant metal element on earth, but bauxite, which is the main raw material for electrolytic aluminum, is relatively small. Let's compare the data in the group, the proven iron ore in the village is about 180 billion tons, but the bauxite is only 25 billion tons, less than a fraction of the iron ore. Although the grade of iron ore in China is not high, it still has 21 billion tons of reserves, accounting for 11.5% of the village. Bauxite China digs three feet of land at home, which only accounts for 2.3% of the village, but the output accounts for 20% of the whole village, and it is expected to be planed in less than 20 years. 91% of China's industries use aluminum, and the consumption accounts for 1/3 of the whole village. Bauxite consumes 180 million tonnes a year, of which 100 million tonnes depend on imports. The current main suppliers are Guinea, Kangaroos and Parrots. Last year, China imported 44 million tons from Guinea and 30 million tons from kangaroos, and the two companies together solved 70% of China's imports, making them the two largest suppliers. During this time, under the influence of eagle sauce, kangaroos always wanted to achieve financial freedom by relying on iron ore stars and sea rabbit hair, and the relationship between the two sides was very stiff; just when Guinea was busy with a coup d'état and could not take care of the bauxite given to China, the international aluminum futures market rose sharply. Reflected in the price of the Yangtze River nonferrous metals, it is about 300 a day... Eagle Sauce and Kangaroo are particularly dedicated, and in the spirit of taking advantage of your illness to kill you, they begin to move continuously. The upstream kangaroos and parrots are old acquaintances, and everyone is familiar with the routine, so we will focus on Guinea.
Guinea has 7.4 billion tons of bauxite in its home, accounting for 1/3 of the village's reserves. Bauxite is a pillar industry in Guinea and supports 80% of the Guinean government's fiscal revenue every year. Like the kangaroo's iron ore, it is of high grade, shallowly buried and concentrated. Aluminum content of 62%, direct open air, the conditions are particularly good. In the past few years, the Guinean government has been vigorously attracting investment everywhere. A total of four groups of people were recruited before and after.
The first group came to Guinea in 1963. It is a joint venture between Alcoa, Rio Tinto and Dadco. Alcoa led the formation of the Halco Consortium, which then worked with the Guinean government to establish the Guinean Bauxite Company, which specializes in bauxite near Sangaredi, with an annual output of 15.2 million tons, accounting for 5% of the village and 55% of Guinea. Bauxite company in the Guinean government holds 49% of the shares, halco consortium holds 51% of the shares, the focus: foreign holdings. In the HALCO consortium, Alcoa and Rio Tinto each hold 45% of the shares, and Dadco holds 10% of the shares. Decomposed into the Guinean bauxite company, it is 49% of the Guinean government, 22.95% of Alcoa and Rio Tinto, and 5.1% of dadco. Alcoa and Rio Tinto basically wear a pair of pants, so you taste, you taste. Eagle Sauce Capital used 22.95% of the capital to control the halco consortium; controlled the halco consortium to control the Guinean bauxite company; controlled the Guinea bauxite company to control about 40% of Guinea's fiscal revenue and 5% of the village's bauxite production; this wave of textbook-level capital operations can be called a benchmark of non-four or two thousand pounds, which is very magical. In China, those who dare to sign such a contract are estimated to be able to harvest wheat at the grave.
Fast forward to 2002, the Bears of Russia's United Aluminum also came to Guinea, trying to break the Eagle Sauce monopoly to engage in competition. It has successively acquired the Jindia bauxite and the dian-dian bauxite, with a total output of about 9 million tons. Cutting off people's financial paths is like killing parents, and Eagle Sauce will naturally not be polite to this kind of behavior of grabbing jobs. Although he shouted free competition, he did not talk about martial arts when he moved his hands. The U.S. government came forward, from the beginning to the end of the sanctions, eating that is called an ugly. Coupled with the "labor disputes" that occur from time to time, several bauxite processing plants in Russia have been in a state of suspension or semi-suspension of production, and it is really black!
The third group, called the Winning Alliance, entered Guinea around 2015. This winning alliance is not a company, but several enterprises related to the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain. The first is the Singapore-based Welle Group, which is responsible for mining and water transport. The ore was dug up from the ground in Guinea and unloaded at Yantai Port. The second is China's Yantai Port Group and Guinea International Mining Supply Company. Mainly responsible for the construction and operation management of the port along the water transport line from Guinea to Yantai Port. The third is China Hongqiao, which is responsible for two parts. The first part is equipment rental. The second part is the digestion of the brought bauxite. From bauxite in the ground to various intermediate industrial products such as profiles and aluminum powder, the winning alliance is all inclusive. The upstream and downstream of the industrial chain are combined and seamlessly connected. The entry of the winning alliance was particularly hard for Alcoa and Rio Tinto, causing them to lose pricing power over global bauxite. The impact of this matter is more far-reaching, and Alcoa's subsequent withdrawal from the upstream business of bauxite is also related to this. But at that time, for this non-my competitor, Eagle Sauce's reaction was still black hands. In 2017, short-selling agency Emerson Analytics issued a report on shandong Weiqiao group shorting. The wording is very professional, to the effect of saying these several things:
More than 200 billion yuan of profits were overstated.
40% of the electricity bill was concealed.
The bank's deposit balance is fake.
The accusations are serious! If it is confirmed, the standard treatment is bankruptcy. Hongqiao is an affiliate of Weiqiao and is listed on the Hong Kong stock market. As soon as the report came out, Hongqiao's market value evaporated by 4.3 billion! Then the audit stepped in. Everyone took this report, one by one, and found that many of them did not match. Go back and ask Emerson Analytics, where did the data and information cited in your report come from? Emerson Analytics replied that the report's sources mainly include the company's public financial disclosures, the transcripts of former employees' conversations, and industry averages provided by comparative consulting firms. This answer is very rogue, three sources of information 2 unreliable. But Emerson Analytics does not have to bear legal responsibility for issuing reports, it is not important to be really fake, and it is very important that Hongqiao's stock price has gone down. Afterwards, at most, our interns did not do things rigorously and brought it over, and the police station was the auxiliary police, and the urban management beat people are temporary workers is a reason. Later, the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association issued a special article for this matter, called "Letter on Preventing and Responding to the Relevant Suggestions of Western Countries Led by the United States to Encircle China's Aluminum Industry" The document number is the Light Letter of the China Nonferrous Metals Association (2017) No. 48. Then Hongqiao sued Emerson Analytics, and then there was no more. If any of your friends know which one is then, be sure to let me know.
The fourth group is Chinalco. Chalco began contacting Guinea as early as 2011, but its mind was not on bauxite. At that time, Chinalco pulled Baosteel, China Railway Construction, China Communications Construction, China-Africa Development Fund, and IFC together to develop Rio Tinto's West Mandu Iron Mine. On the bauxite project, it was not until 2018 that it negotiated with the Guinean government and won the boffa block project. You see this time span, it is really a lot of arduous business negotiations! Seek truth from facts and have no water injection. (Ridicule) The ore obtained by the first three groups of people has an average grade of more than 60%. Chinalco came late, and the average grade of the block it won was only 39.1%, with an annual output of 12 million tons. To use an imprecise analogy, Hongqiao shipped back 100,000 tons of bauxite, which can produce 60,000 tons of alumina; the same time and freight, Chinalco shipped back 100,000 tons of bauxite, which also produced 40,000 tons of alumina. Getting up early in the morning, catching a late set, taking the most effort, taking the worst ore. After that, the UAE Aluminum Group, Australia's amc Mining, France's amr, the United Kingdom's Alufer and anglo-African and other international mining companies continued to pour into Guinea, and the current bauxite mining area in Guinea was basically contracted by each family.
After talking about bauxite, let's talk about Guinea. The coup d'état in Guinea had no small impact on China's aluminum and iron. The president who was ousted this time was called Alpha. Contet, who came to power in 2011. It's okay to do things in African presidents. Both the Bofa bauxite and the Simandau iron ore were in his hands. In the process, President Conte intimidated the army and offended many people. The story begins in 1997, Rio Tinto explored iron ore in Simandau, reported to the Guinean government that the reserves were 1.5 billion tons, and the president of the Guinean government at that time was also called Conte, which we called the old Condé. The old Kong Dai military background is relatively rough, and without verification, he directly signed a 25-year contract with Rio Tinto for 1.5 billion tons. Rio Tinto did not move after occupying the pit, and it dragged on until 2008, when BHP Billiton acquired Rio Tinto. According to the regulations, the acquisition case should be mandatorily disclosed to the shareholders, and this disclosure reveals that the Simandu iron ore reserves are 11 billion tons. The gap between 1.5 billion tons and 11 billion tons, you can taste it yourself. Old Condé felt that he was being fooled tightly, and in a fit of rage, he took back the northern section of Simandau for re-tendering. The african junta's tender, everyone understands. The results did not disappoint the masses, and the elder Conte received $100 million from the Israeli businessman Steinmetz and gave away the northern section of the West Mandu mine. Originally everyone was happy, but unfortunately, Steinmetz had not yet had time to start work, and the old Condé died. Later, the Guinean family was busy with a coup d'état to seize power, and everyone did not bother to do this, until the new Kong Dai came to power in 2011. The new Conte was the political enemy of the old Conte, and after taking office, he vigorously engaged in anti-corruption in accordance with the principle of eliminating evil and doing everything possible, and Steinmetz was pulled out as a typical example of criticism. After several years of tossing and turning, finally under the mediation of the French, a part of the mining area in the northern section of Simandau was spit out. In China, the Simandeau iron ore mine is a mess, and everyone hides far away. But China is really short of iron, so it is still the scalp, after years of hard work, finally the part of Israel spit out plus the southern section sold by Rio Tinto, which is the Simandu iron ore that we now blow on the Internet every day. After the railway port was fully started, the gears were ready to do a big job, and Guinea had a coup d'état!
Looking back at the new Conte's governance, it was mainly a nationalist line. The new official took office with three axes, and in 2011, Kong Dai introduced the Guinean Mining Law as soon as he came to power, and the core mainly said several things. Where enterprises engaged in aluminum-related business in Guinea, the government accounts for 2.5% to 15% of the shares without compensation, and the higher the proportion of shares in the upstream of the industrial chain. For example, iron ore and bauxite are 15%, steel mills and alumina plants account for 5%, and then the downstream electrolytic aluminum, accounting for 2.5% of the shares, and so on. Magnesium and Rio Tinto have not had time to jump to scold the mother, and made up the second plate axe! If you see that your business efficiency is good, the government can increase its holdings by 20% to 32.5% through paid purchases. This time, on the contrary, the lower the industrial chain, the higher the proportion of holdings, and finally ensured that the Guinean government can hold up to 35% of all related enterprises. It is simply tailored to retaliate against magnesium aluminum's joint venture program in Sangaredi that year. This is not the end, turning his head to find Rio Tinto again, he swung out a third axe: "Brother, your contract in the mining area south of Simandeau has expired, do you want to renew your contract?" "Ah, I want to renew my contract, okay." This year's policy is this year: a renewal fee of $700 million, then build us a deep-water port, and under the new mining law, the government wants 35% dry shares. Let you occupy the pit and not, let you bully us to read less, let you conceal the reserves, and clean up your rabbit cubs! The three-plate axe is not only extremely insulting, but also extremely destructive! It blew up the nest and caused mining chaos in Guinea for a while. It was not until 2013 that the new KongDai gave a compromise plan to reduce taxes, expand the prospecting area, and reduce the margin. Man, not good!
Guinea, with its abundant resources, is now a wrestling ground for international capital, and everyone wants a piece of the pie here. Eagle sauce, kangaroos, woolly bears, Hans cats, Gallic chickens and Chinese, all of which have cards in the village, have all shown their faces here. The sadness of the politics of small countries lies in whether the affairs of their own countries are self-described or not. If we do not choose to cooperate with external forces, we will not have the strength to ascend to power, but if we choose to cooperate with external forces, we will not be able to keep it together one day and be carried down by the opponent forces. A president with such a personality as the new Conte is certainly not in line with the appetite of foreign businessmen. So you say that there was no eagle sauce and kangaroo conspiracy in this coup d'état in Guinea? All I could answer was that there was ability, there was motivation, and I didn't know. Kangaroos and hawks regain control over resource pricing in mines in Guinea, and Gallic chickens, as guinea's old owners, want hawks and kangaroos not to stretch their hands too long. We hope to diversify the supply of mineral resources through investment in Guinea and break the monopoly of Western capital pricing. After the coup, both iron ore and bauxite once again threatened our strategic security of resources and affected the livelihoods of hundreds of industries downstream. At present, it is imperative to stabilize the situation in Guinea as soon as possible, resume the production of Chinese enterprises in Guinea, and not give people with ulterior motives the opportunity to make trouble. In the past, the West Mandu iron ore mine was placed high hopes by the Chinese people. Casually search for Simondu on the Internet, the painting style is kangaroo dumbfounded, and the Australian iron ore killer has come to such a painting style, full of optimism. But the global village has always been a jungle society, although the table is full of spring snow, but under the table is full of all kinds of intrigue and shady operations. It's not that you spent money, won the bid, and everything is fine, there are a lot of bad things waiting for you that you can't imagine. Whether it is the open struggle in the face of interests, or the every inch of land that must be defended in front of the big right and wrong, in the end, it is strength that plays a decisive role!
Three consecutive do not suffer losses, pay attention to the gains! I am Tianyujun, see you next time!