According to Japanese media reports, Japan's new Prime Minister Kishida Fumio will dissolve the House of Representatives on the afternoon of October 14, and issue an announcement on the 19th to vote for election at the end of the month.
Just two days ago, the new Chairman of the Liberal Democratic Party Andi, Takashi Sanae, issued the election program of the current House of Representatives, not only criticizing Kishida Fumio's too moderate attitude toward China, but even publicly stating that his election program has not been fully adopted, and if he wants to continue to implement his own policies, he can start from the cabinet.
However, Takashi Sanae finally warned Kishida Fumio that it was okay to implement policies in the cabinet, but it was necessary to pass the internal censorship of the Liberal Democratic Party.
Good fellow, this is not to tell everyone that Kishida Fumio has no real name, although he became the prime minister, he still has to listen to the instructions of the big man in the party, and his own ideas are not important.
Shortly after the incident, japanese media broke the news that around the formulation of the election program, a fierce break broke out within the Prime Minister's Office and the Liberal Democratic Party. It turns out that the arm is still not twisted thighs, and Kishida has not had time to exert his ambition, and he has already been rubbed hard by reality.
This is not a surprise, Kishida Fumio came to power, it was originally the result of some of the looting within the Liberal Democratic Party boss.
Judging from the formation of the new cabinet, Shinzo Abe's Hosoda faction and Aso Taro's Aso faction received the most cakes. Aso Taro became vice president of the Liberal Democratic Party, and Gan Liming, the representative of the Aso faction and Abe's military commander, replaced Toshihiro Niji as the secretary general. Abe's hand-picked "successor," Takashi Hayanae, served as the party's political media chief, and Taro Kono, the previously highly vocal prime minister's candidate, only took the position of propaganda minister.
Abe's younger brother, Kishi Nobuo, remained defense minister, while the finance minister was Shunichi Suzuki, Aso's brother-in-law. Overall, although the Aso faction won few seats, its position in the party was not low. The Hosoda faction won 4 ministers, 6 vice ministers, and the president of the general affairs, not to mention the seemingly "non-factional" political director of Takaichi Sanae.
Nevertheless, in addition to the fact that Hiroichi Matsuno, the chief cabinet secretary, is relatively heavyweight, considering the huge size of the Hosoda sect, it is really not a big winner compared to the Aso school. The Kishida faction, which has long been marginalized by the party, is "one man gets the way, and the chicken dog ascends to heaven", plus the prime minister, and won a total of four cabinet seats.
Previously, Gan Liming, Abe Shinzo, and Aso Taro, who were collectively known as "3a" because of the initials of their names, occupied the position of the "big three" in the party for many years. However, it is said that Abe originally wanted to give Takashi Sanae the post of secretary general, but he did not expect to be cut off by Ganliming, which shows that there has been a rift inside the "3a".
Judging from the results of this cake division, under the advice of Gan Liming, the trend of the Kishida faction and the Aso faction to unite is accelerating, and they are ready to join forces against the Hosoda faction. The most tragic thing is the second-order faction, which is already 82 years old this year, and has lost the post of secretary general, and the position in the party has plummeted, and it is not necessary to be gradually marginalized and withdraw from the stage of history.
Apart from the formation of the cabinet, Kishida has not put forward any substantive governing ideas so far. In the previous campaign, in order to win the votes of conservative bigwigs such as Abe and Aso, Kishida changed his previous self-proclaimed "dovish" image and advocated a tough attitude toward China.
Abe supported Takashi Sanae, in the face of kono Taro, who is very popular among the people, originally had no chance of winning, at this time, seeing Kishida's overtures, it was better to push the boat along the water, so that Takashi dispersed Kono's vote in the first round, and joined Kishida's camp in the second round, which contributed to his ascension.
Theoretically, Kishida's rise to power is indispensable to Abe's contribution, and he should vigorously promote Abe's policies like Takashi, at least on the surface.
After his election, in addition to the phrase "I hope China will take responsible action", Kishida not only did not put forward any political ideas, but emphasized cooperation with China, and promised not to worship ghosts at the Yasukuni Shrine, but only to send people to offer sacrifices.
In contrast, Takashi Hayae, whether before or after the campaign, never changed its arrogant attitude toward China. A long time ago, she said, "As a Japanese, you should go to the Yasukuni Shrine to pay homage to the heroes who died for the country." In addition, she often makes public remarks smearing China, and together with her American father, she plays up the "China threat theory." Compared to her, Kishida is indeed mild.
However, Abe could not sit still, this boy would not cross the river and tear down the bridge. Therefore, Takashi chose to strike Kishida at the time of the re-election of the house of representatives and the redistribution of power within the Liberal Democratic Party, and the meaning of this is self-evident.
In essence, this year's LDP presidential election is actually a struggle between the young and conservative factions in Japanese politics. In Japanese politics, such a situation is not the first time it has appeared, it has appeared as early as World War II, but the Japanese emperor at that time still had the right to speak, vigorously supporting the radical young zhuang faction, laying the foundation for the future all-out war of aggression against China.
After the war, the emperor was already extinct in name only, and with the help of the United States, Japanese politics was completely reduced to the world of factions. Today, the young zhuang faction represented by Kono and the conservative faction represented by Kishida have once again stood at the juncture of the historical showdown, and Kishida's victory marks a temporary victory for the conservatives.
Why is it temporary? Because Kono's approval rating was so much higher than Kishida's in election polls, Abe had to introduce a high market to divide the votes. This shows that the conservative bigwigs' control over Japanese politics is weakening, so they have to resort to some small means to maintain their power.
Even so, Kishida's public approval rating after coming to power remained low, at only 56 percent, far lower than the 74 percent when Suga had just formed a cabinet last year. Judging from Suga's performance in the past year, it is not advisable to continue Abe's route, which may also be the reason for Kishida's delay in taking a stand, rather than acting as a puppet of others, it is better to choose to ride the wall left and right, waiting for the opportunity, and may be able to open his own era.
However, the trend of Japan's political parties being larger than the government has been difficult to reverse, and starting with Suga Yoshihide, Japan may enter the era of frequent changes of prime ministers.
Since the 21st century, especially between September 2006 and December 2012, there have been frequent changes in Japanese politics. In just six years, there have been six prime ministers, Shinzo Abe, Yasuo Fukuda, Taro Aso, Yukio Hatoyama, Naoto Kan, and Yoshihiko Noda.
The reasons behind this are complex, and the most immediate reason is the economy.
During the period from 2001 to 2006, Japan ushered in the "Koyoharu" stage after the collapse of the bubble economy, maintaining a "low economic level" of an average annual growth rate of 2%, and then Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi was able to rule for a long time, accumulating up to five years and five months. After Koizumi stepped down, the Japanese economy continued to fall into a downturn, which led to the scene of "six years and six phases".
In addition, the LDP's defeat is also an important reason. On July 29, 2007, Abe's Liberal Democratic Party lost control of the Senate for the first time during its 52-year rule, and Abe himself resigned due to illness. Later, Taro Aso and Yoshihiko Noda resigned in 2009 and 2012 respectively because of the LDP's defeat in the House of Representatives elections.
In today's context of intensified Sino-US competition and the global epidemic, Kishida is at a crossroads, and the epidemic problem, economic problems, Sino-US side of the party, etc., will affect his decision-making.
For now, Kishida's idea is to take care of the various forces first, and then look at the dishes. But Abe is not willing to wait, if he can't pick up the tricks and can't handle the forces of all sides, the road after that is estimated to be difficult to walk.
At the same time, what the United States needs is an obedient dog, and although China is Japan's unavailable trading partner, if the prime minister is not willing to bite, the United States will let him not do it for long.
In the past, we used to say that the president of the United States was a decoration, put a dog in the oval office, and the country could function normally, in fact, this is more obvious in Japan.