On November 3, 2021, local time, Taliban soldiers stood guard outside the attacked hospital in Kabul, Afghanistan. According to Agence France-Presse, a senior Taliban commander was killed in a hospital attack carried out by ISIS-K. (People's Vision/Photo)
ISIS-K's terrorist attacks in Afghanistan are becoming more and more intensive.
According to Reuters on November 2, 2021, two serious suicide bombings occurred at a military hospital in the center of Kabul, Afghanistan, and gunshots continued at the scene. The attack has killed at least 25 people and injured more than 50 others.
After the explosion, ISIS-K claimed responsibility for the incident.
Earlier, Reuters reported on October 26, 2021, that U.S. Deputy Defense Secretary Colin Kahl told the Senate Armed Services Committee that both ISIS-K and al-Qaida had intentions to launch attacks on the West.
"Isis-K could launch an attack as early as next spring." According to intelligence community assessments, Al-Qaida "has the potential to develop this capability within one or two years, and that possibility must be vigilant," Carr said.
Who is ISIS-k, what kind of threat it will pose to the United States, and what kind of defensive measures the United States will take have become a hot topic of discussion among netizens on social media.
"The United States is most worried not only about the threat posed by ISIS-K, but also about the spread of international terrorism around the world, which will lead to the resurgence of terrorist organizations." Zhang Jiadong, director of the South Asia Research Center of Fudan University, told Southern Weekend reporters.
Just this past October 2021, isis-k has launched two terrorist attacks on Shiite mosques in Afghanistan. On October 8, a Suicide Bomb attack on a Shiite mosque in the northeastern Afghan city of Kunduz killed more than 50 people, and just a week later, on October 15, a shiite mosque was attacked in Kandahar, a major southern Afghan town, killing at least 47 people.
Who is "isis-k"?
"isis-k" is a branch of the extremist organization Islamic State, the full English name is "isis-khorasan", literally translated as "Islamic State - Khorasan". The term "Khorasan" originally referred to the name of a region in ancient Southwest Asia, as well as the name of a province in present-day Iran.
It is reported that the "isis-k" has been established for 6 years, and the original leader is The Kuwaiti and senior member of al-Qaida, Muhsin Fadley. The group earlier declared itself a "caliphate" in Iraq and Syria before being destroyed by U.S. forces.
According to the UN report, the "ISIS-K" currently has about 1500-2200 militants from Arab countries, the Middle East, Pakistan and other South Asian countries, and is a "transnational organization".
In April 2020, the Afghan government arrested The leader of the "ISIS-K", Abdullah Orakzai. Two months later, the new leader, Shahab Al-Muhagil, took office, and he kept trying to recruit disgruntled but experienced members of the Taliban to expand his power.
In recent years, isis-k has been active in Afghanistan. According to a Report released by the United Nations in June 2021, there were 77 attacks claimed or participated in by isis-k between January and April 2021, three times the number from the same period in 2020. In addition, isis-k is still recruiting new members and will continue to pose a threat to Afghanistan and the wider region.
Under Muhagil's leadership, the group not only perennially created attacks in Afghanistan and Pakistan, but was also an "enemy" of the Afghan Taliban.
On the afternoon of August 26, 2021, outside the International Airport in Kabul, the Afghan capital, two suicide attackers from the extremist group "isis-k" detonated bombs near the Abbe Gate at Kabul Airport and at the Baron's Hotel not far away, after which multiple ISIS-K personnel opened fire on the military and civilians.
Why are ISIS-K attacks becoming more frequent?
"With the withdrawal of the U.S.-led NATO coalition from Afghanistan, coupled with the Taliban's windy military offensive, the pressure on ISIS-K was objectively and inadvertently weakened, and the previously surviving ISIS-K was able to take advantage of the opportunity to launch a new offensive." Zeng Xiangyu, an associate researcher at the Institute of South Asian Studies at Sichuan University, told Southern Weekend.
Today, the Taliban are more cooperative with the international community than they were in power from 1996 to 2001. For example, there are also certain compromises on issues such as women and other minorities. But these compromises have upset members of the more extreme Taliban, some of whom have switched to ISIS-K.
The Center for International and Strategic Studies in the United States has disclosed that isis-k intends to establish a "caliphate" governed by Sharia law in South and Central Asia. Just days before the execution of the Taliban, the former leader of the "isis-k," he said in an interview with The Washington Post that the Taliban's aim was simply to regain control of Afghanistan, but that the ISIS-k had a global strategic goal, so the two sides had major differences.
The terrorist group is "off the beaten track." Zeng Xiangyu said, "Isis is more focused on attacking the city and establishing a territory, and isis-k also has similarities. But overall, there is still a big gap between the strength of ISIS-K and its peak state. ”
Although the 20-year war in Afghanistan is over, Afghanistan could still pose a serious threat to U.S. national security.
According to the Wall Street Journal, Biden said the U.S. will remain vigilant and identify threats from groups such as al-Qaida and the Islamic State through intelligence-gathering operations in Afghanistan.
Regarding Colin Carr's prediction, Zeng Xiangyu believes that the United States may want to express an attitude or warning to ISIS-k that "I already know your actions and attach great importance to it", but this judgment is difficult to be precise.
Li Shaoxian, dean of the China Arab Studies Institute at Ningxia University, told Southern Weekend that the United States released such a signal with "ulterior motives."
"The United States' exaggeration of the ISIS-K threat is also an increase in the international community's distrust of the Taliban and weakens the international community's confidence in the Taliban." Li Shaoxian said that after the complete withdrawal of the US military in Afghanistan, there are still some worries about the re-activity of al-Qaida and ISIs, and at the same time, the United States is not willing to leave the "Hinterland of Eurasia", so the US military has been trying to obtain military bases in the neighboring countries of Afghanistan, but it has encountered great resistance, and the release of this signal at this time is closely related to it.
According to a report released in June by the United Nations Analytical Support and Sanctions Monitoring Group, the core of isis-k is mainly in Kunar, Afghanistan, east of Kabul, and in a small area of Nangarhar province. The New York Times reported that ISIS-k was found using the internet and propaganda sites on the dark web as a tool for "recruiting."
The report shows that in the months leading up to the U.S. withdrawal, between 8,000 and 10,000 extremists have poured into Afghanistan from Central Asia, the North Caucasus and Pakistan. Some of them have ties to Al Qaeda or the Taliban, while others tend to support "isis-k."
U.S. intelligence officials and independent experts point to evidence that some Islamic State supporters elsewhere in the world are trying to relocate to Afghanistan, which worries U.S. law enforcement officials, Bloomberg reported.
The report also quoted FBI Director Christopher Wray as saying: "We are concerned that ISIS-K can take advantage of a significantly weakened security environment." Other terrorist groups may also begin to see Afghanistan as a "safe haven" where they can move freely.
Carr argues that isis-k does not currently have the capability to launch an attack on the U.S. mainland, but it is likely to have that capability in the next 6 to 12 months. As for isis-k's relationship with the Taliban, Karl said the two were "enemies of the same coin."
Taliban spokesman Mujahid said in a Oct. 14 interview with the media that ISIS is not a big problem. Just a day later, isis-k launched a terrorist attack on a Shiite mosque in Kandahar.
The United States withdrew its troops from Afghanistan, taking away more than a hundred thousand Afghans. "These people have relatives in Afghanistan, friends, and communication channels with Afghanistan, and it is likely that they will become a channel for the spread of terrorism." Zhang Jiadong said.
At the same time, the ability of the U.S. military to fight terrorist organizations is also shrinking, and even weakening the U.S. counter-terrorism capability against ISIS-K.
According to The New York Times, the Biden administration insists that isis-k is only a small fraction of the many threats facing the United States around the world that can be managed using over-the-horizon military equipment and intelligence systems.
According to the Associated Press, the reason why the United States and the Taliban reached a withdrawal agreement is partly because they hope that the Taliban can fight the "Islamic State" affiliated group in Afghanistan. The U.S. government sees them as the real threat.
If a fight does break out, where will isis-k attack the United States?
Zeng Xiangyu told Southern Weekend reporters that it is difficult to attack the US mainland, but in South Asia and the Middle East, there are US troops and the presence of US personnel and enterprises. "It might be more realistic to attack from these fronts." Zeng Xiangyu said.
"The United States cannot do all-round defense." Zhang Jiadong also believes that in addition to the possibility of terrorist attacks by Afghans in the United States, there are also relevant military bases in the United States overseas, and the possibility of being attacked is relatively large.
In the face of the possibility of a terrorist attack, "the goal of the United States is to dismantle ISIS-K and al-Qaida in order to completely eliminate the threat these organizations pose to the United States." Karl said.
Zhang Jiadong believes that if necessary, the United States has the ability to directly use air power to carry out air strikes on the Islamic State's base. The U.S. may use military facilities in Pakistan or even India.
This is not the "first time" of the US military.
On August 26, 2021, after an explosion attacked an airfield in Kabul, Afghanistan, the U.S. military launched a counterattack against a terrorist organization for several days. The Pentagon confirmed that the U.S. military hit a vehicle carrying an ISIS-K suicide bomber in a 29-day air raid. They were on their way to the airport to try to intervene in the withdrawal of U.S. troops.
In addition, the United States is also considering deploying military forces around Afghanistan.
"We will continue to engage in dialogue with Afghanistan's neighboring countries and partners in the region to explore future military force deployments and support." Pentagon press secretary John Kirby said at a news conference on Oct. 25, 2021.
But an anonymous U.S. official told the media that the U.S. does not currently have any troops in Afghanistan, and it is extremely difficult to identify and sabotage organizations such as al-Qaida and the Islamic State.
Dramatically, after the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, military militants, who once spent more than $80 billion on training, now have "other options." Russia Today reported on November 2 that many former Afghan government forces have chosen to join ISIS-K because of livelihoods and fears of liquidation by the Taliban.
Isis-K is currently intensifying activity in the Nangarhar and Kabul regions of eastern Afghanistan. But neither the Taliban, which are busy rebuilding Afghanistan nor the United States, have made decisive progress in the fight against ISIS-K.
Today, the U.S. government faces a dilemma: Troops have withdrawn from Afghanistan, but should it cooperate with the Taliban in order to fight ISIS-K?
Zeng Xiangyu told Southern Weekend reporters that the Taliban's current situation is more delicate, "it is difficult for the Taliban to turn this corner for a while."
"Intelligence gathering, especially on the ground, relies heavily on local intelligence agencies." Zhang Jiadong said that the United States and the Taliban may have been "quietly" cooperating tactically, but on the surface, neither side is willing to disclose it.
"Although the United States now has to deal with the Taliban, it still freezes international assets in Afghanistan." Li Shaoxian believes that the freezing of assets has seriously hindered the restoration of stability and normal development of the Afghan state, and in fact has given the ISIS-K organization an opportunity to take advantage of it, "so the policy of the United States is contradictory."
"Although isis-k has a worldwide jihadist goal, the primary target at present is still the United States, or the Western world." Zhang Jiadong told the Southern Weekend reporter, "After all, the United States and the West are the most powerful power groups in the world today and the biggest stumbling block to the international 'jihadist movement'." Therefore, the United States is trying to combat terrorist organizations. But, just like dealing with COVID-19, terrorism cannot be completely eliminated, and this is a long-term task. ”
(Intern Zhu Junxi also contributed to this article)
Southern Weekend reporter Wang Yaolin