The Paper's trainee reporter Chen Qinhan
On the afternoon of September 14, local time, in the Presidential Election of Japan's Liberal Democratic Party, Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga received 337 votes, and was elected as the new president of the Liberal Democratic Party by absolute superiority, and he is expected to succeed Shinzo Abe in the provisional diet two days later to officially become the 99th prime minister of Japan.
"Today, I handed over the command of the LDP president to Suga. For 7 years and 8 months, I have been silently watching Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga silently dedicate himself to the country. There is no doubt that he is the new president of the Liberal Democratic Party, who is most commensurate with the Reiwa era. Shinzo Abe, who resigned due to illness, spoke after the election results were announced, placing high hopes on Suga.
As president of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party, Suga will be voted in the September 16 national election, and his appointment as the new prime minister is almost certain because the LDP has a majority in the parliament. On the same day, Suga will also form and launch a new cabinet, officially starting the journey of a new Japanese government.
Start from scratch
"I was born in Akita, where the snow was falling, and I was the eldest son of a peasant family." In his campaign speech in early September, Suga said, "I started almost from scratch. When I first arrived in Tokyo more than fifty years ago, I should not be able to imagine myself today, and ordinary people like me can aspire to become prime minister with hard work. ”
Unlike Shinzo Abe, who came from a prominent political family, Suga's father was a staff member of the Tohoku "Mantetsu" during the Japanese invasion of China, and after Returning home from Japan's defeat in the war, he returned home to cultivate the land, branded the local strawberry varieties, and created the now-famous "Akigu Strawberry".
When Suga was 18 years old, he and dozens of classmates took a train south to work in a carton factory in Tokyo. In an interview with the Japanese writer Mori Kō, he talked about his "Kyo drift" experience, and his heavy physical labor prompted him to return to his studies, quit his job and enter Hosei University, the cheapest tuition fee among private universities, and completed his studies with half work and half study. He confessed that he thought that he might return to his hometown one day, but slowly realized that the world was driven by politics.
After graduating from university, he was introduced by his seniors at Hosei University to become the secretary of Kirosaburō Kozaki, then a member of the House of Representatives, a job he held for 11 years. According to the website of Suga Yoshihide, he ran for the Yokohama City Council in 1987, ran 300 households every day in order to solicit votes, ran 6 pairs of shoes, and fainted during a visit. Eventually, the 38-year-old was elected to the Yokohama City Council when he set the motto "Where there is a will, there is a way to do it."
In order to promote the concept of "local decentralization", Suga challenged the national government, and in 1996, as a member of the Liberal Democratic Party, he was elected to the House of Representatives for the first time, entering the center stage of Japanese politics, and then being elected eight times. Suga spent his early days wandering among several factional factions of the Liberal Democratic Party until he completely broke away from the faction in 2009 and called for "breaking the hereditary lineage.". During the LDP presidential campaign, he once again stressed that if elected prime minister, the personnel arrangement will not take into account the requirements of the faction, and the future "Suga Cabinet" will also implement the concept of no faction valve. There will be no change to the Cabinet Personnel Bureau, but cadres who oppose government policy "will be transferred."
Japanese constitutional historian and political commentator Man Kurayama told the surging news (www.thepaper.cn) that the president of the Liberal Democratic Party can be said to have been produced under the factional joint regime, so Suga Yoshihide was inevitably swayed by the factional forces in the arrangement, and had to consider the interests of the factionalists who supported him. This time, the 5 factions supporting Suga are actually split, and Suga will be very cautious at the stage of forming the cabinet, speculating that he may already be bothered by this now.
According to NHK, during his tenure as Chief Cabinet Secretary, Suga often overturned the personnel arrangements of various provinces, departments, and departments, breaking the practice of "seniority theory" in the central authorities, and many people called him "Suga Personnel". It looks like a "peacemaker," but Suga also has a strong side, and Japanese political commentator Shiro Tasaki said in a column in 2017 that there was a rumor among officials of the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry that "no matter which provincial and departmental cadres have to look at Suga's face and act."
Abe's "Zhuge Liang"
Although Suga was listed as a popular successor in the "post-Abe era" for a long time, he himself never publicly expressed his ambition to become prime minister until the day after Abe's resignation, and his loyalty was evident. Suga is 6 years older than Abe, and the two have been friends for more than a decade. The NHK report mentioned a detail that Abe sometimes affectionately calls Suga "Suga Sauce", but Suga has always called the other side "Prime Minister" and stressed that "the master-slave relationship cannot be destroyed".
"Suga is a typical type of staff officer, and his relationship with Abe is like Zhuge Liang and Liu Bei." Hiroshi Nakanishi, a professor at Kyoto University's Graduate School of Law, used the three kingdoms as a metaphor for the two, pointing out that Suga Yoshihide would inherit the policies and guidelines of the Abe regime when he took office, but he could not become a prime minister as strong as Abe.
"Building trust between Me and Shinzo Abe is an opportunity to 'pull the problem' in North Korea. At that time, it was thought that this person (Abe) would become prime minister in the future. Suga said that in 2004, the North Korean passenger and cargo ship "Wanjingfeng" was going to enter the Japanese port, and Japan banned it from entering the port because of the "North Korean abduction of Japanese people", but there was no relevant legal and regulatory basis. Suga and then Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary Abe agreed on their ideas and worked together to draft the relevant bill. This narrative is recorded in the book "Shadow PowerHouse Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga" by Japanese journalist Kenya Matsuda.
In the 2006 LDP presidential election, Suga became a core member of the Abe Support Alliance, not relying on the Mori faction (now known as the Hosoda faction) to solicit votes, but using policy as a banner to dispel public opinion's prejudice against Abe's heavy faction. After Abe was elected prime minister, Suga entered the cabinet for the first time as Minister of General Affairs. However, Abe left office after only one year in power, and Suga was unable to make a big splash in politics until Abe "opened his eyes twice".
Gan Liming, who served as the head of Abe's camp in the 2012 LDP presidential election, told NHK that it was Suga who first proposed to let Abe run, saying at the time that he "wanted Abe to return to the political arena and lead the country no matter what." Later, Akira Kan, Yoshihide Suga, and Taro Aso formed a team to advise Abe's campaign, and eventually helped him turn the tables against the wind, and Suga became one of Abe's most trusted confidants.
History repeats itself, and on August 28 this year, Abe resigned due to illness. This time, Suga Yoshihide took over the heavy trust and completed the remaining one-year term of Abe until September next year, and the idea of a "transitional regime" was very popular in Japanese media reports. In this regard, Suga said in an interview with Kyodo News agency on the 5th: "The new government is not temporary. It is a duty to the people to act with confidence and integrity. ”
According to Kurayama's analysis, in theory, Suga's term of office is only 1 year, but this does not mean that it is a "transitional regime", and the LDP president has never followed the precedent of compliance. If Suga grasps the power relationship and skillfully uses strategy and skill, as long as he wins the House election, he may become a strong prime minister and continue to govern. Now for Suga, the timing of dissolving the House of Representatives is very important.
Deputy Prime Minister Taro Aso said on the 13th that the new prime minister may immediately dissolve the House of Representatives after taking office. Defense Minister Taro Kono recently said that it may be dissolved (House of Representatives) in October. On this issue, Suga said in a debate program on TV Asahi on September 9: "I have repeatedly stressed that the most urgent thing at present is how to effectively prevent and control the new crown epidemic. In this situation, I have reiterated many times that I will not dissolve Parliament. ”
Zhou Yongsheng, a professor at the China Foreign Affairs College, believes that the LDP maintains a one-party monopoly situation, and now that the House of Representatives is dissolved to hold a general election, the LDP should still win a big victory, or basically maintain the existing pattern, and Suga Yoshihide may have the opportunity to transform short-term regime into long-term governance. But if Suga dissolves the House of Representatives after a year in office, it may expose some of his flaws, and it will be difficult to say whether he can sit firmly in the position of prime minister. Choosing when to dissolve the House of Representatives is actually a gamble, as long as the general election is held, it will become a big mess, and there are more possibilities.
A veteran of politics and a novice in diplomacy
Suga has his own calculations about the time to dissolve the House of Representatives, after all, he has been at the highest decision-making level in Japan for nearly 8 years. An average of 20 meetings a day, more than 100 people, and a regular press conference in the morning and afternoon. This is Suga's daily work day as Japan's chief cabinet secretary from 2012 Monday to Friday. The Mainichi Shimbun reported that the frequency of the two daily press conferences surprised many foreign journalists, and Japanese political journalist Tetsuo Suzuki said that Suga always appeared at the press conference as an "iron face", but in fact he took good care of everyone and had no official character.
Suga is Japan's longest-serving Chief Cabinet Secretary, and on July 7, 2016, his number of days in office reached 1,290, surpassing Yasuo Fukuda, who served as Chief Cabinet Secretary in the cabinets of Yoshiro Mori and Junichiro Koizumi, setting a new record. Asked by reporters about his feelings on the same day, Suga said modestly: "I didn't expect to work for so long, and I didn't feel that I had much strength." In fact, he has played an important role in Issues such as Tax Reform in Japan, Tourism Revitalization, and the Relocation of U.S. Military Bases in Okinawa, especially when it comes to controversial issues, and Suga is always on the front line. For example, when the epidemic rebounded in July this year, the Abe government promoted the "go to travel" tourism subsidy plan to the whole country, and many politicians, led by Tokyo Governor Yuriko Koike, opposed the epidemic and criticized it endlessly, while Suga Yoshihide repeatedly responded strongly at press conferences to "implement as originally planned", sharply pointing out that the increase in the number of infected people in Tokyo is Tokyo's own problem, and trying to implement policies against public opinion, without any intention of compromise.
However, the political veteran is a novice in diplomacy. "Suga has almost no diplomatic experience on the international stage, his international reputation is low, and judging from the situation he has mastered, his personal diplomatic knowledge and ability are insufficient." Nakanishi pointed out that the diplomatic gap is one of his weaknesses.
Suga responded to questions at a pre-election press conference: "Diplomatic continuity is very important, Prime Minister Abe has done a very good job in diplomacy, and I will stick to my diplomatic attitude." "Some foreign affairs will be consulted with Abe in due course." In response to Japan's diplomatic dispute, he has said that he hopes to meet with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un without preconditions in the hope of making a breakthrough on the "Korean abduction of Japanese people" issue. He also said efforts would be made to resolve the territorial dispute between Japan and Russia over the South Kuril Islands, known to Japan as the "Four Northern Islands."
On the relationship between neighbors, Suga stated in previous election debates that he hoped to promote the establishment of a strong diplomatic relationship with asian neighbors, including China and South Korea. According to a report by South Korea Radio International (KBS) on the 7th, most experts predict that even after Suga Yoshihide takes office, South Korea-Japan relations are unlikely to see any major changes. However, some speculate that the possibility of bilateral summit talks between South Korea and Japan has increased this year.
Japanese constitutional historian and political commentator Man Kurayama told the surging news that Suga has not yet shown a clear position on Sino-Japanese relations, "Some people will mention that Suga Yoshihide once opposed Abe's visit to the Yasukuni Shrine, I think the reason for his opposition is not to consider diplomatic relations, in general, he and Abe's view of history is not much different, but he should not reflect his personal ideas in governance and diplomacy." ”
Liu Jiangyong, a professor at the Department of International Relations at Tsinghua University, pointed out that after last year's G20 summit, Sino-Japanese relations returned to the track of normal development, but this year there have been some variables, and how Suga can repair some of the remaining problems is a severe test. In addition, the results of the US election will also affect Japan-US relations, full of uncertainty.
Suga has stated that "a policy of diplomacy, security, and security based on a functional Japan-U.S. alliance will be launched." Nakanishi pointed out that strengthening the Japan-US alliance will be one of the important support points for the stability of Suga's regime. Whether Trump or Biden are elected, it is crucial to build a relationship of trust with the PRESIDENT. The Wall Street Journal reported on the 3rd that Abe has been committed to promoting US-Japan relations for nearly 8 years, and his departure will become one of the biggest risks in US-Japan relations, especially at present, the two countries are still negotiating a new defense sharing agreement, involving the issue of US military spending. In a phone call with U.S. President Donald Trump on August 31, Shinzo Abe stressed that he would demand close cooperation between Japan and the United States from the next prime minister, and that the importance of the Japan-U.S. alliance would not change even after the new Japanese prime minister took office.
How to reverse the economic downturn
On September 8, Japan revised its economic growth rate in the second quarter from a previous contraction of 27.8% to a contraction of 28.1%. This is the largest economic decline Japan has experienced since 1955, mainly due to the impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic and last year's consumption tax increase. In Japan, the consumption tax is one of the important factors affecting the economy. Abe raised the consumption tax from 5 percent to 8 percent in 2014, dragging the Japanese economy into recession, before postponing a second increase in the consumption tax to 10 percent until October last year. Japanese media commented that Abe's two tax increases during his two terms reflected that "Abenomics" had not been a substantial success.
On the issue of consumption tax, Suga does not seem to have a firm stance. According to the Current Affairs News Agency reported on the 12th, Suga said on a television program on September 10 that in view of the aging of the population, it is inevitable to raise the consumption tax again in the future. However, just a day later, he changed his tune at a press conference on the 11th: "Abe once said that the consumption tax does not need to be raised in the next 10 years, and my idea is the same." But he left room for manoeuvre, saying it might need to be raised in 10 years. "Asahi Shimbun" reported on the 12th that Suga was immediately criticized by the opposition party after proposing to raise the consumption tax, accused of affecting the lives of the people and the operation of small and medium-sized enterprises, so he immediately withdrew the relevant remarks.
Around economic policy, Suga announced his campaign that he would continue Abenomics, emphasizing that economic growth is more important than fiscal reform. According to a poll released by Reuters11, 56% of Japanese companies want Yoshihide Suga as prime minister because they believe that they do not need to change their current stimulus policies, at least until the end of the new crown epidemic. In the survey, 85 percent of companies believe that the benefits of "Abenomics", which have been implemented for nearly eight years, outweigh the disadvantages.
Zhang Yulai, deputy dean of the Institute of Japanese Studies at Nankai University, told the surging news that the sharp increase in corporate profitability is one of the three major achievements of Abenomics, and the average sales profit margin of Japanese enterprises in the whole industry has exceeded 4.4%, which is an unprecedented level. So companies definitely hope that Suga will be elected prime minister to continue this favorable policy. Suga will continue to promote "Abenomics", but under the influence of the new crown epidemic and trade disputes, the financial sector has been "poor in skills".
According to an analysis by Radio International, Suga did not have enough confidence to bear the consequences of the failure of Abenomics, and LDP members knew they would be criticized, so they would not abandon the strategy until they could no longer hide the failure of economic policy. Suga Economics will add some new stimulus measures to stimulate economic growth along the direction of Abenomics.
In addition to the economic downturn, the rebound of the new crown epidemic, the interruption of the "constitutional amendment", the hosting of the Tokyo Olympic Games... A series of thorny issues lie ahead of Japan' eyes, and Suga shoulders a heavy burden.
Editor-in-Charge: Li Yiqing
Proofreader: Yijia Xu