On November 5, a powerful cold wave broke through the Altai Mountains, Tianshan Mountains, Kunlun Mountains and Qilian Mountains and ascended to the Mongolian Plateau and the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Next, it will swoop down rapidly and head south, hitting the central and eastern regions like a tide; but on the other hand, the strong and warm humid air flow of the monsoon level is also moving northward, jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai are rarely heavy to heavy rains in November, and there is a particularly strong fog in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, and the northeast once rose to 21 degrees, exceeding the normal value of more than 10 degrees.
On the morning of November 5, the fog in Tianjin was filmed by @noisy babe
Obviously, there must be a battle between the two powers. And the consequence of this fairy fight is a wide range of rain and snow. Because the cold wave is very strong, it will snow in all the provincial administrative regions in the north this time. Of course, because the warmth and humidity have penetrated deep into the northeast and even run up to the Inner Mongolian steppe, all provinces except northern Gansu and Ningxia must first rain and then turn from rain to snow.
The estimated snowfall range of the gfs model comes from tropicaltidibits
For example, in Beijing, at present (november 5 evening) rain has begun, but this rain has nothing to do with the cold tide, it is a warm and humid air flow that explodes; by the afternoon of tomorrow (November 6), the cold tide will drive to the warm and wet to meet the battle, and the rain in Beijing will increase rapidly and the temperature will drop rapidly; and around 10 o'clock in the evening, with the cold tide taking advantage, the altitude of more than 300 meters will all turn to sub-zero, and the crackling rain will suddenly disappear, and the goose feather snow will fall.
Beijing rain and snow conversion time series, CIC ai based on ecmwf data production
Due to the special terrain of Beijing, there is uncertainty about the timing of snow transfer. When the snow turns determines the amount of snow in Beijing. Before 10 p.m., it will be as heavy as blizzard; around 2 a.m., it will be moderate snow; and after dawn, there will be no snow. Compared with Beijing, Tianjin is relatively fixed, basically snow in the early morning; and Tianjin's water vapor is also more abundant, and the possibility of blizzard is greater than that of Beijing.
Hebei weather forecast for Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei
Of course, as we said in yesterday's article, the focus of this blizzard is not Beijing and Tianjin, but the northeast of Hebei, the eastern part of the Inner Mongolian steppe and the western part of Heijiliao, especially the Tongliao-Jinzhou line. This is because after the cold wave low vortex enters North China, it will stimulate a powerful cyclone in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and slow down, and a large amount of warm and humid air flow will "rear-end" with the cold tide, forming the strongest snow clouds, in these places.
Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and Liaoning and other places have recorded snow depths, and Zhongqi loves to make them
At the end of mid-November 2020, a cyclone caused a wide range of freezing rain and blizzards in the northeast, compared with the last ice and snow process, this cold wave is stronger, the low vortex is slower, so the blizzard range is larger and lasts longer, and the supercomputer mode gives local snowfall of more than 100 mm and more than 60 cm of snow, which may double or even triple the local historical record.
The freezing rain in Changchun in November 2020, Zhongqi loves to shoot
In the middle of the northeast, which is close to the blizzard area, it may be necessary to be wary of more dangerous "stewing" weather. Under the action of strong warm and humid air flow, there may be an inversion layer in the middle of the northeast, sometimes freezing rain, sometimes raining, sometimes snowing, and when the mixture of ice and snow water is laid on the ground and hung with branches, it is possible to suddenly cool down and freeze a solid. In November last year, such weather hit Changchun, causing a serious impact.
We remind that as the main force of the cold wave moves south, it will snow collectively in the north, while record-breaking heavy blizzards and even exceptionally heavy snowfall may occur in the northeast of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and western Liaoning, and the part of western Liaoning may double the historical record; the central and western parts of the northeast plain, including Shenyang Changchun and Harbin, may have dangerous weather mixed with frozen rain, snow and rain. What you have to do is, from noon tomorrow, try to stay at home less often and pay attention to keeping warm.
ECMWF's analysis of rain and snow in the northeast, from Windyty