Written by / Gao Zhi
Editor / Lee Ha Lin
As the second highest-priced stock in A-shares, Every move of Stone Technology affects the sensitive nerves of the capital market.
After the hours on Friday, October 29, 2021, Stone Technology released the third quarter report of 2021, and the financial report showed that the operating income in the first three quarters of 2021 was 3.827 billion yuan, an increase of 28.43% year-on-year; the net profit was 1.016 billion yuan, an increase of 12.98% year-on-year.
Whether the above performance is in line with expectations has triggered extensive discussion in the market, and there are many voices of doubt.
By Monday, November 1, 2021, the stock price of Stone Technology soared by 8.67%, and the market value increased sharply by 5.209 billion yuan, while Tuesday broke through the thousand yuan mark and became the only two thousand yuan shares in A-shares, looking far away from the "stock king" Guizhou Moutai.
For a moment, the voice of doubt suddenly stopped.
So, why didn't the stock price of Stone Technology fall and rise to a new high in the near future, and what is the explanation in this? Or what is the underlying logic of the capital market still favoring Stone Technology? Sweeping robot track wolf smoke, stone technology long-term trend has changed?
How can the interpretation of retail investors and institutions be inconsistent
Strictly speaking, Stone Technology's answer sheet did not satisfy everyone.
Topics about stone technology such as snowball and stock bars have heated up, and some investors believe that stone technology can earn more, so they are uneasy about the trend of stock prices.
The concern is not unreasonable, the capital market can be described as bloody during this time, stocks with less than expected performance have been repeatedly hammered, stocks that meet expectations are highly sought after, and the external performance of performance gold content is quite obvious.
Ultimately, the concerns did not become a reality.
Li Yuanhai, a professional investor in a share, told Zinc Scale: "(Monday) the main inflow of 141 million yuan, super large single frequency, this is obviously not the retail investors, indicating that the institution still recognizes the performance of stone technology, you can say that capital is greedy, you can also say that capital is ruthless, but you can not deny that capital is shrewd, this is a k-line chart drawn by real money and silver." ”
Li Yuanhai further said that Stone Technology rose from 675.89 yuan on October 12 to 900 yuan before the financial report, which originally hid expectations for performance, and now the continuation of the rally shows that the previous expectations have not been disappointed.
From this point of view, the three quarterly reports of Stone Technology deserve to be re-examined.
According to the financial report, the monetary funds of Stone Technology were 1.368 billion yuan, an increase of 275.48% year-on-year, and the cash was relatively sufficient; the net operating cash flow was 1.149 billion yuan, which was 133 million yuan more than the net profit, and the profit could be precipitated, rather than the left hand in and out; the accounts receivable were 71.394 million yuan, down 8.95% year-on-year, and the ability to collect money was strengthened.
More critically, the proportion of research and development has further increased.
In the third quarter of 2021, R&D investment was 112 million yuan, an increase of 65.10% year-on-year; in the first three quarters, R&D investment was 311 million yuan, an increase of 80.07% year-on-year, accounting for 8.13% of operating income.
Please enter the illustration
The proportion of R&D has increased year by year
From 2018 to 2020, the proportion of R&D was 3.83%, 4.59% and 5.81% respectively, with an increase that was visible to the naked eye; as of the end of June 2021, its R&D personnel were 464 people, accounting for 58.64% of all employees.
In other words, Stone Technology's attitude of focusing on research and development has not changed.
Institutions care more about innovation than R&D?
It should be noted that more investment in research and development will affect the color of net profit to a certain extent, which may trigger the stock price fluctuations of listed companies, which has been staged many times in the history of A shares.
In this regard, Chang Jing, chairman and CEO of Stone Technology, once said in an interview with the media: "The investment must be invested, and if it is not invested in the company, there will be no future." ”
Coincidentally, retail investors value the present, while institutions value the future.
Chen Tingtao, a manager of a private equity investment department, told Zinc Scale: "The investment vision is different, the dimension is different. Research and development is very important, but more importantly, it is transformed into innovation, which is the cornerstone of the performance of stone technology, the market also trusts this logic, as long as the underlying logic does not change, the market's expectations will not change. ”
In other words, the reason why the stock price of Stone Technology has long been second only to Moutai in Guizhou, there is no "cold in the high place", which has a great relationship with the capital market's expectation of its continuous innovation.
Net profit grew steadily
Looking back, Stone Technology started with innovation.
The early sweeping robot adopted random navigation and took collision as the basis for judgment; then extended to inertial navigation, with a certain memory ability; and then evolved to visual navigation and laser navigation, and the sweeping robot entered the intelligent era.
Among them, the world's largest sweeping robot company iobot has become a loyal fan of visual navigation, and Stone Technology has become synonymous with laser navigation.
In 2016, Stone Technology officially came down, taking the lead in the industry to integrate lidar, synchronous positioning and map construction algorithm, motion control algorithm, artificial intelligence path planning algorithm, etc., thus opening up the market with laser navigation, and becoming one of the head players of the track in just a few years.
In contrast, the advantage of visual navigation is that the hardware cost is low, the challenge is that the external lighting dependence is higher, and the data processing volume is larger; the advantage of laser navigation is that the obstacle avoidance effect is better, and the challenge is that the hardware cost is higher and the data processing requirements are higher.
In this context, the two routes coexist.
However, from the perspective of the user reputation of Tmall and Jingdong, laser navigation is slightly better, so domestic high-end products tend to laser navigation or "laser + vision" dual solutions.
An Internet observer told Zinc Scale: "The route dispute of the sweeping robot is quite similar to the autopilot scene of the car, the late entrant Huawei station laser, the first Tesla station vision, the current Huawei solution is higher, and the shadow of stone technology can also be seen from Huawei's playing style." ”
In addition, Stone Technology has developed a technical combination of "double roller brush double-sided side side two-way assist" to cut into the scrubber track, which solves the problems of weak cleaning ability, low coverage ability and poor promotion experience of similar products on the market, which is well received by consumers.
This means that Stone Technology is replicating the successful path of sweeping robots on the scrubbing track.
The inflection point of shipping is now, the year-end promotion is approaching, and the pressure on profitability will be alleviated.
In addition to the underlying logic not changing, the external environment of stone technology has also quietly changed.
On the one hand, sea freight prices have ushered in an inflection point.
Since 2021, the price of shipping has been rising, and the third quarter has accelerated, as can be seen from the increase in net profit of China Shipping Remote Control in the first three quarters of 1650.97% year-on-year.
This is not good news for foreign trade enterprises.
According to public information, the overseas pricing of Stone Technology is higher than that of China, for example, the retail price of similar products in the United States is about 1.67 times that of China, so a considerable part of its revenue comes from overseas.
Fortunately, the price of shipping has shown signs of "fever".
According to the "21st Century Business Herald" report, since late September 2021, the sea freight rate from Asia to the United States has dropped from $30,000 to $20,000, a drop of more than 30%, while the prices of international routes such as Europe and Southeast Asia have also fallen, and even the prices of some popular routes have plummeted by more than 50% in a month.
On the other hand, the year-end promotion is coming.
Every year, the "Double Eleven" in China and the "Black Friday" in foreign countries are the highlights of online sales, and have always been highly valued by enterprises.
According to official data, on the first day of the double 11 pre-sale in 2021, the turnover of stone technology live broadcast exceeded 20 million yuan for the first time, and the live broadcast time was 2 times that of the same period last year; the number of visitors increased by 15 times compared with the same period last year; at present, the overall pre-sale data ranks among the top two in the industry.
It should be noted that its new products are also accelerating the release of potential energy.
According to the data of Aowei Cloud Network, the sales trend of the g10 sweeper and the first scrubber u10 released on August 25 is better, 2021.9.27 ~ 2021.10.24, the g10 online sales share is +7pct to 17% year-on-year, and the u10 online sales share is 5.1%, ranking among the top four in the industry.
This means that in just over two months, Stone Technology has become a force that cannot be ignored in the scrubber market.
The latest research report of Western Securities pointed out: "The company's revenue side maintains benign growth, and it is expected that the new clean products will perform well in the year-end promotion, and it is expected that the company's profitability will gradually pick up as the pressure on shipping eases." ”
In fact, in the past month, 17 securities companies have rated Stone Technology, 14 have suggested "buying", and 3 have suggested "overweight", almost unanimously expecting the performance thickness of Stone Technology in the fourth quarter.
Average performance forecast of brokers
After all, the penetration rate of sweeping robots in China is still relatively low, the penetration rate of the United States is 16%, and the penetration rate of developed coastal areas in China is only 4.5%, and the future growth space of the industry is huge.
All in all, the underlying logic of Stone Technology has not changed, the growth expectations have not changed, and the track prospects have not changed, which is favored in the capital market, which is also a natural thing.
Well, the "stone" will continue to be "crazy".