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Commander's decision-making mistakes? How did the US$3 billion nuclear submarine "hit the mountain" in the South China Sea?

More than a month after the US nuclear submarine collision accident, although the US side still has not clarified the original situation, it seems to be ready for a hasty end. On November 4, the U.S. Seventh Fleet, headquartered in Japan, announced the dismissal of three top commanders of the USS Connecticut. According to a brief statement on the Seventh Fleet's official website, Fleet Commander Thomas "lost faith" in them and believed the accident could have been avoided.

Public opinion in the United States is not very satisfied with the latest statement. Some commentators said that in addition to finding someone to "carry the pot", there are still some major questions to be answered by the US military top brass: How did a $3 billion submarine hit the undersea mountains? What was it doing? Why does the military say the accident could have been avoided?

Could have been avoided

The U.S. Navy currently has 68 active nuclear-powered submarines, divided into three types - ballistic missile submarines, cruise missile submarines, and rapid attack submarines, each of which performs its own duties. Ballistic missile submarines are a maritime component of the "Trinity" nuclear force; cruise missile submarines mainly display non-nuclear force; rapid attack submarines are used to pursue enemy ships, underwater reconnaissance, etc., and can be equipped with multi-mission platforms.

The protagonist of the incident, the Seawolf class Connecticut, is a fast-attack submarine, one of the three active Seawolf-class nuclear submarines of the US military. It is one of the most advanced and powerful submarines in the United States, costing about $3 billion, entering service in 1998, with a length of about 107 meters, equipped with 140 crew members and the latest electronic equipment, underwater speed of up to 46 kilometers per hour, almost as fast as the US Army's Arleigh Burke-class destroyers, known as the "luxury sports car" among submarines.

On October 2, the Connecticut crashed into an undersea mountain range while on mission in the Indo-Pacific Ocean, injuring several of its crew and forcing the submarine to surface to continue sailing. The U.S. military did not confirm the news until 5 days later, and the details of the accident have not been explained.

On November 4, Commander Thomas of the Seventh Fleet dismissed Captain Aguilani of the Connecticut, Co., Ltd., Lieutenant Captain Cassin, and Chief Sonar Technician Rogers, based on the findings previously received. Thomas suggested that accidents could have been avoided if leadership had "made good judgments, made prudent decisions, followed sailing plan protocols, observed team operations, and managed risk."

Public opinion believes that the latest statement of the US military is still very general, blaming the accident on decision-making errors, but has not given a clear explanation for the details that people want to know most - the injury of the submarine, the nature of the mission, the location of the incident, etc.

speeding

How could a $3 billion, well-equipped, and highly powerful Seawolf-class submarine crash into an undersea mountain range? The U.S. media is looking for answers.

Combining public opinion and the views of naval experts, there are roughly several clues to follow.

First, the lurking seabed is difficult. Surface ships can rely on global positioning satellites to provide sailors with very accurate positions. But in the deep sea, GPS systems are not available. Only compasses and charts can be used on submarines. Drawing accurate seabed charts is expensive and time-consuming, with as many as 80% of the seafloor actually not being drawn. It's like driving in the dark, unaware of the unexpected situation in front of you.

Second, the terrain of the sea area where the incident occurred was rugged, mountainous, and shallow. Although the U.S. military did not give official confirmation, Defense Department officials have located the accident in the South China Sea. For centuries, the area has been marked as a dangerous zone on charts, with relatively few passages available, and some areas are even only 150 to 180 meters deep, depending on the accuracy of the charts.

Although submarines have active sonar, they often rely on passive sonar in order to maintain stealth capabilities. The latter obtains parameters by receiving radiated noise from targets in the water, with limited accuracy and more complicated by submarine mountains.

Third, there is a need for prudent action at all times. U.S. officials said the submarine was passing through an area of the South China Sea at the time of the accident, but did not move as cautiously as possible, and in areas where the charts showed were unclear, it sailed faster than it should have.

This is reminiscent of the lessons of the USS San Francisco, the USS San Francisco, a Los Angeles-class nuclear submarine in January 2005. At that time, the submarine hit an undersea mountain range south of Guam, killing 1 person and injuring 97 others. The final findings were that the San Francisco was traveling at maximum speed at a depth of about 160 meters. Although the nautical charts used at the time did not indicate the location of the "seamount", if the commander and the observation team had followed the necessary procedures and taken prudent measures, it was likely that accidents could have been avoided, or at least the degree of casualties could be reduced.

Dangerous action

At present, the independent investigation of the US Pacific Submarine Force is still ongoing. The accident submarine is still in Guam and will be sent to Bremerton Naval Base in Washington for repairs in the future. The Pentagon has not announced how long it will shut down.

Some U.S. military sources are worried that the accident has deprived the U.S. Navy of a key tool of underwater warfare, and the Connecticut may not be able to enter service for years to come.

How will this affect U.S. military operations at sea?

Some analysts pointed out that the three Seawolf-class submarines have always been considered important intelligence-gathering assets of the United States, especially in shallow water environments. Their missions include surveillance, intelligence gathering, special operations, cruise missile strikes, mine warfare, anti-submarine and anti-surface ship warfare. Given the special circumstances of the South China Sea, connecticut's priority in the current environment may be intelligence gathering.

"Spying on U.S. submarines has a long history." The US "Business Insider" website bluntly said that the US military is unlikely to disclose the nature of the mission of the "Connecticut", but it is certain that it has participated in the strategic reconnaissance activities of the US military many times. The accident was just one of the cases in which this "silent fleet" was carrying out dangerous operations in sensitive waters. In the era of great power competition, the value of U.S. submarines performing secret missions has become increasingly prominent. The United States and its allies want to monitor their adversaries in a variety of ways and keep their intelligence going upwards.

On November 2, a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson once again urged the US side to elaborate on the details of the accident and fully respond to the concerns and concerns of regional countries. "The key is to stop sending warships and warplanes around to provoke and show off force, and to stop acts that undermine the sovereignty and security of other countries." Otherwise, there will probably be no fewer, only more, accidents of this kind. ”

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Column Editor-in-Chief: Yang Liqun Text Editor: Yang Liqun Title Image Source: ic photo Infographic Image Editor: Xiang Jianying

Source: Author: An Zheng