(i)
Recently, reading history books, the most beautiful time of the Northern Song Dynasty may be the demise of the Liao State, and the Northern Song Dynasty finally lost a large area of lost land in the north. Who knows, the seemingly peak victory is the most tragic defeat in the blink of an eye.
A similar scene may be playing out in Britain.
On the face of it, now is the time when Johnson is most excited, the British have made a choice, the Conservatives have won a big victory, and Brexit has become a foregone conclusion. Excited Johnson's speech after the victory, the first sentence was: We succeeded! We broke the deadlock, we overcame it, we broke all the obstacles.
With a total of 650 seats, the Conservative Party won more than 360 in one fell swoop, and there was no need to look at the faces of other parties. It was also the most significant victory for the Conservatives in 30 years since Margaret Thatcher.
But there was always a sense that it was a more ominous signal, for Britain.
Now it is not a matter of obstacles, but a black swan that is already preparing to fly in the cold winter of 2019.
This should also be the last black swan of 2019, although it may not be until next year or later!
On the surface, the Conservatives did win a big victory; in reality, Britain is more divided, and Britain's political landscape has changed irreversibly.
The Scottish National Party, which advocates Scottish independence, has risen in an all-round way.
Of Scotland's 59 seats, the Scottish National Party has won 48 seats, an increase of 13 seats from the 2017 general election and is undoubtedly the biggest winner in Scottish constituencies.
The Conservatives attacked the whole of Britain, but in Scotland, both the Conservatives and the Labour Party were completely expelled by the Scottish National Party.
In contrast to the 2017 election, this election two years later.
Scottish National Party, increased by 13 seats.
Conservative Party, 7 seats down.
Labour, down 6 seats.
Moreover, it is a process of gradients
In 2007, the Scottish National Party won the Scottish Parliament;
In 2011, the Scottish National Party again won the Scottish Parliament;
In 2015, the Scottish National Party won the general election for Scottish constituencies;
In 2016, the Scottish National Party won the Scottish Parliament;
In 2017, the Scottish National Party won the general election for Scottish constituencies;
In 2019, the Scottish National Party again won the general election for Scottish constituencies.
In other words, the Scottish region is firmly in the hands of the Scottish National Party.
British political map in 1977
The political landscape of the UK in 2019
You know, the Scottish National Party has always advocated staying in the European Union and becoming independent from Britain.
After the Scottish constituency victory, Sturgeon, the Scottish Government's First Minister and leader of the Scottish National Party, said the results of the election showed two points:
First, Scotland is once again sending a strong signal to stay in the EU and not agree to Leave;
Second, Scotland's fate must be decided by the Scots, i.e. Scotland seeks independence.
If the way is different, then go their separate ways.
So, we see that after the election is a different celebration.
Many places, including London, celebrated the Conservative victory. The last sentence of Johnson's victory speech was: Let's finish Brexit. But first, friends, we have to make breakfast first.
But in Glasgow, Scotland's largest city, there were various marches to reject Brexit and demand that Johnson step down. In his victory speech, Sturgeon criticized: Johnson's mission is to get Britain out of the European Union, then he must accept, my mission is to let Scotland choose a different future.
The contradictions seem irreconcilable. Sturgeon announced that she would send a signal to Johnson before Christmas to hold another Scottish independence referendum.
It's less than two weeks before Christmas.
With the current public opinion, the result of the referendum may also be expected.
(ii)
The British have come to a new crossroads.
After all, the biggest slogan of the Conservative Party is Brexit; but after Brexit, it may be some regions to leave the UK.
Not just Scotland, but Northern Ireland.
The biggest difficulty in the Brexit negotiations is the status of Northern Ireland.
The full name of the United Kingdom is "United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland", and Great Britain refers to the three British Isles: England, Scotland, Wales, and one piece is Northern Ireland.
Northern Ireland is in the northern part of the island of Ireland. In 1921, after a long struggle for independence, the 26 counties in the southern part of the island of Ireland broke away from Britain, which is now Ireland. The 6 northern counties remain in the UK, which is now Northern Ireland.
But then, there was the bloody rain. The Northern Irish were dissatisfied with the British colonial rule and demanded the union with Ireland, and the Northern Irish Republican Army suffered from various underground struggles and terrorist attacks.
It was not until 1998, when a peace agreement was reached in Northern Ireland, that the situation gradually calmed down.
But now, Brexit has opened a Pandora's box, don't forget, the UK is leaving the EU, but Northern Ireland is advocating staying in the EU.
Once Brexit is completed, if a border is set up between Northern Ireland and Ireland, and northerners certainly do not agree, it will certainly be chaos in the world, and explosions and blood will return.
What to do?
The British are also racking their brains. According to the agreement between Johnson and the European Union, it may be said that the British have finally learned from China and implemented "one country, two systems".
Northern Ireland's defence and diplomacy will remain with Britain; however, Northern Ireland will have a special customs territory and be treated differently from the British Isles.
Goods shipped into Northern Ireland from other parts of the UK, considered not to have left the UK, may not be subject to EU tariffs. The British can advertise that Northern Ireland is entirely British.
But in practice, EU regulations still apply in Northern Ireland. All EU procedures will apply to shipments arriving in Northern Ireland from other countries. If it is determined that these goods will only enter the Northern Ireland market, the tariff will be levied at the British rate, and if it is determined that it will eventually enter the EU market, the tariff will be levied at the European rate.
There is no hard border between Ireland and Northern Ireland; but there is a soft customs border between the United Kingdom and Northern Ireland at sea, and it is always easier to accept at sea anyway.
After the terms were announced, there was an uproar.
Many Britons have also rebounded: the British are brexit, but Northern Ireland is actually still in the UK, what is the matter? Does this invariably encourage Northern Ireland to leave the UK?
The Scots are more angry, we want to stay in the EU more than the Northern Irish, but we are forced to leave the EU, I am so indifferent to our rights? That's only an independence referendum, a departure from Britain!
In 2014, Scotland held an independence referendum. Cameron finally burst into tears, and the EUROPEAN union countries also called on the Scots to take the overall situation seriously, and the referendum was risky to reject the independence demand.
But five years later, the situation changed drastically, the UK was leaving the EU, and a new round began.
(iii)
A country returns to its heart when it is strong; but when it is in decline, it first disintegrates internally.
In the past 5 years, it feels like the UK is tossing and turning, round after round of referendums, and then endless Brexit, changing three prime ministers. Finally, now Brexit seems to be coming, but then, it is the internal peeling.
When the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia split, Britain and other countries actively participated; if the same reason is the same, Scotland has no reason not to be independent.
Historically, Scotland and England are not the same country, England is Anglo-Saxon, Scotland is Celtic, the two countries have been at war, weak Scotland, more is invaded fate.
In 1296, King Edward I of England attacked Scotland, overthrowing the king at the time and taking away the stone of fate when the King of Scotland was crowned. Scottish hero William Wallace appeared in a fight against the invasion of England, and the Hollywood movie Braveheart told the story.
In 1603, Queen Elizabeth I of England died childless, and king James VI of Scotland was her cousin. Since then, Scotland and England have shared a kingship. In 1707, Scotland and England merged, but England undoubtedly dominated.
After the Second World War, the British colonies became independent, which also encouraged Scotland's independence. The discovery of the North Sea oil fields and the improvement of the Scottish economy have exacerbated this tendency. The recent serious tearing over Brexit is becoming the thickest fuse for Scotland to fly solo.
Black swans are gearing up. The smoother Brexit, the stronger Scottish independence will be.
Politicians should be rational. But for the sake of political calculation, the British launched referendums again and again without assessing the worst outcome. Eventually both prime ministers stepped down and the country was torn apart.
If this continues, just as the Soviet Union disintegrated, the great Britain will probably be left with only one place in England.
Remember that the Financial Times lamented that in less than a decade, the now small Britain will completely fall apart.
After the British election, I saw that the British people also predicted that if it was fast, the United Kingdom would leave the European Union tomorrow, and the following year would be Scottish independence, followed by Northern Ireland becoming part of Ireland...
The empire that once owned the world's most expansive land, like a Russian matryoshka doll, molted layer by layer, and finally returned to the British Isles, and the Three Isles, likely, are also dreams.
This may also confirm the old Chinese saying: the general trend of the world, for a long time will be united, and for a long time, it will be divided.
It is indeed a major change that has not been seen in a hundred years!
Moreover, where misfortune and blessing depend, where blessings and misfortunes lie.
Johnson thought he had won a great victory, he was bold, he wanted to do a big job; but he faced an imminent crisis, and Britain was once again at a crossroads.
Black swans are fluttering. Toss it, just toss it.