Japan's Liberal Democratic Party's new Cabinet of Kishida Fumio announced the next phase of the LDP government's policy platform (which will also directly serve the House of Representatives elections held at the end of this month), and the most striking of the eight-point policy is the "security field" program:
According to Kishida Fumio's cabinet plan, in the future "in the short and medium term", we will strive to raise the upper limit of Japan's annual defense budget to 2% of the country's GDP from the current 1% to 2%, and ensure that more than 100 billion US dollars are allocated for the "defense budget" every year. This means that in the case of Japan's long-term GDP stagnation, Japan's domestic defense budget will swell to twice the current level, which is an unprecedented military move, and when it comes to the list of large defense projects drawn up by the LDP government, everyone is shocked when the news comes out.
After all, judging from the situation in Japan, since the "basic principle" of the LDP's Takeo Miki Cabinet in 1976, which determined that Japan's defense budget should not exceed 1% of gdp per year, Japan's defense budget has adhered to this "ancestral system" every year. For example, since 1983, Japan's political and military ambitions have increased due to a sharp increase in economic strength, and the defense budget has reached more than 1% for 7 consecutive years, but it has not exceeded the 1.1% limit; for example, after 1993, Japan has begun to touch this "1%" red line under the pretext of the "southwest situation", that is, the situation on the front line of the Taiwan Strait, and the budget has exceeded 1% of GDP for 13 consecutive years, but it has also not reached the 1.1% limit.
In general, although Japan's intention to "touch the line" in the defense budget is quite strong, from 1976 to the present, almost half of the time has been "touching the line" for more than 45 years, but in the end it is still more about martial arts, and it has not played too much, that is, it has generally complied with the defense budget restrictions set by Takeo Miki for Japan. Now that the new Cabinet of the Liberal Democratic Party, Kishida Fumio, has finally decided to break through this restriction at the legal level, and it will double from 1% to 2% of GDP, there is no doubt that this can be regarded as a fundamental change in Japan's national defense budget and even in national defense strategy, and it is not wrong to say that it is a shift from "defensive defense" to aggressive "strategic offensive".
From the perspective of horizontal comparison, after the Second World War, no major military power dared to openly declare that it would "double" its military expenditure in many years and years. Rao was the Soviet Union during the Cold War, which raised the position of military industry and army building so high, that its military expenditure increased from $20 billion to $40 billion, which also took 10 years; while military spending increased from $40 billion to $80 billion, from $80 billion to $160 billion, and these two processes took another 10 years (from 1961 to 1970, 1971 to 1979). Although the LDP cabinet has not made it clear how long it will take to raise Japan's military spending from 1% to 2% of GDP, even if it is done in the next 10 or even 15 years, the annual growth rate of military expenditure will be a competition with that of the Soviet Union during the Previous Cold War, which means that the Japanese LDP is close to the Same level as the Soviet Union during the Cold War.
Not to mention, from the analysis of the armament construction plan proposed by Kishida Fumio's cabinet along with the "military expenditure promotion plan", Japan can no longer be described as "poor soldiers", but should be described as "wolf ambition", let's first look at what armament plans have been put forward by the LDP cabinet, according to this administrative program, including the statements of the main political figures of the LDP on different occasions and the information revealed, then Japan will simultaneously carry out large-scale construction in the following armament fields:
In the maritime combat equipment, the Japanese Sea will accelerate the "Izumo" class helicopter carrier into a "Lightning Aircraft Carrier" that can operate the U.S.-made F-35b fighter jet, and the existing modification plan is expected to be completed between 2026 and 2028, when the Japanese Navy will get two fully loaded light aircraft carriers with combat effectiveness comparable to the U.S. "U.S." class "Lightning Aircraft Carrier", each carrier can carry 16 to 20 F-35B fighters. At the same time, it is not excluded that the subsequent Sea of Japan will build more light aircraft carriers, and even build medium-sized aircraft carriers with displacement of 40,000 to 60,000 tons and full-deck operation capabilities as appropriate, far exceeding the performance of our army's "Liaoning" and "Shandong" warships.
In addition, the Japanese Maritime Self-Defense Force will also be in the field of large destroyers, submarines, amphibious combat equipment and other fields of synchronous force, after the cancellation of the land-based "Aegis" system construction plan, the Japanese Sea itself has been prepared to build two displacement of more than 10,000 tons, more powerful than the existing "Maya" class destroyers of the new air defense ships, as the future Japanese sea-based anti-missile and surface warfare combat core; in the submarine field, along with the Australian Navy is about to get attack nuclear submarines, In the future, The Sea of Japan will do whatever it takes to get attack nuclear submarines; in the field of amphibious warfare, in addition to continuing to build special ships such as "helicopter destroyers" and amphibious transport ships, the Sea of Japan will continue to purchase MV-22b transport aircraft, strengthen the construction of the Land and Sea Mobile Regiment, and make all preparations for the so-called "Southwest Incident."
In terms of aviation warfare and even long-range attack equipment, Japan's ambitions are even more obvious: In addition to continuing to promote the plan of improving the existing F-15J/DJ fleet, Japan is also prepared to purchase more F-35A fighters, purchase a number of large strategic reconnaissance and early warning aircraft and strategic unmanned reconnaissance aircraft for air campaign support, and strengthen the construction of land-based ballistic missile defense systems.
Of course, these are actually relatively conventional armament actions when we look at them now, and the real fatal problem for Japan is that it is actually preparing to purchase medium-range ballistic missiles; some time ago, as chairman of the Liberal Democratic Party and Government Investigation Committee and known as the "shadow of Shinzo Abe," Takaichi Hayanae clearly pointed out when questioned by the government that for Japan, "medium- and long-range ballistic missiles are very necessary, and strongly advocated that Japan should accept the deployment of medium-range ballistic missiles by the United States in Japan. Although this statement may not be reliable and may not be achieved, even if Japan decides to "connect" the US medium-range ballistic missile to Japan, such as the LRHW that the US military is developing with hypersonic glide warheads, which also has the ability to hit our major cities and important political and economic targets within ten minutes. To put it bluntly, this has surpassed the threat posed by the Pershing-2 missile to Moscow, the capital of the Soviet Union, and is a serious violation of our core interests, which we must not accept.
So, what kind of crazy and wrong medicine did the newly elected Government of Japan's Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) go wrong, daring to brave the world to continuously break through the restrictions of the "Peace Constitution", raise its own military expenditure level, and develop its own long-range attack weapons? There is no doubt that this is not only the result of the "general climate" of Sino-US relations, but also means that Japan has made further "side-picking" between China and the United States:
After all, with the gradual downward trend of Sino-US relations since 2016, the structural contradictions between the two countries are becoming increasingly prominent, and what follows is undoubtedly a "vague zone" between the two countries, and some regional powers that used to habitually eat and sleep between China and the United States have accelerated their approach to one side. For a long time, Japan has habitually engaged in balance-of-power diplomacy between China and the United States, choosing to cling to the thighs of the United States on military and security issues, but maintaining close ties with China in economic cooperation, trying its best to ensure that "two will not be delayed," and not blaming the United States for its ties with China, nor offending China because of its ties with the United States. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe of the Liberal Democratic Party, who has been in power for a long time, is one of the "excellent representatives", and with the turn of Sino-US relations downward, there will be less and less room for these regional powers, especially countries such as Japan, to "play freely", compared with the economy, which "can be abandoned" things, security and other "personal life" things will undoubtedly have a higher priority, which will allow these countries to "accelerate their side" in Sino-US relations.
Unfortunately, judging from Japan's options, this country has made its own choice between China and the United States, that is, the United States, after all, whether it is strengthening its own naval construction, or purchasing missile defense systems, especially the deployment of medium-range ballistic missiles on the Japanese mainland, and now intends to increase its military expenditure to 2% of GDP, none of these actions respect China's core interests, almost all of them are to tie Japan to the US chariot, and "harm others and harm themselves" behavior. Therefore, we must realize that after a short "honeymoon period" between China and Japan in the past 20 years and a normal period of tepidness for more than ten years, the current relationship is taking a sharp turn with the LDP's Raushi sub-arms plan, and the confrontation between China and Japan will become more and more intense in the future, and it will certainly exist as an integral part of the confrontation between China and the United States for a long time.
New great power confrontations are gradually taking shape in East Asia and the Western Pacific.