Member of the China Translation Association, International Political Observer analyst Hu Yukun
Editor's note: At the end of March, Russia massed a large number of tanks and weapons near the border between Ukraine and Crimea, Ukraine immediately turned to NATO for help, and Russia and Ukraine formed a confrontation on the border. On April 22, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu announced that Russian forces would withdraw from the border areas of the "Combat Readiness Inspection Force", and that the troops would return to their regular positions from April 23 until the end of all operations on May 1. The Russian-Ukrainian border standoff, which sparked international tensions, came to an end. What is the purpose of Russia's massive increase in troops on the Russian-Ukrainian border? What did the parties involved in the incident, including Russia, Ukraine, the United States and NATO, gain or lose? Please see the analysis of the "Wind Direction" column of Phoenix Network.
Core synopsis
1. The Biden administration has a tough attitude toward Russia, and U.S.-Russia relations continue to cool; in the face of the "aggressive" momentum of the United States, NATO and Ukraine since 2021, Russia will demonstrate its strength and deterrence through this "military exercise". 2. The actions of the United States, NATO and Ukraine against Russia have not caused Russia to change its existing internal and external strategies, let alone lead to Russia giving up any strategic positions. 3. NATO's support for Ukraine is not worthy of its name. In the Russian-Ukrainian contest, the initiative is mainly in the hands of the Russian side. Zelenskiy and the Ukrainian government's policy of turning to the West and staunchly opposing Russia has been unsuccessful. 4. The game and interaction between the United States and its European allies and Russia is destined to be a protracted process. Russia's relatively restrained and rational approach to the end ensures that Europe is not tied to the anti-Russian chariots of the United States and Ukraine for the time being. 5. Although the Russian-Ukrainian border confrontation has ended, similar regional conflicts may be repeated in other forms if the parties fail to properly manage their differences and return to the provisions of the Minsk Agreement and the OSCE Vienna Document.
Chen Bing 100,000, "plotting against the wrongdoers"? Russia's "military exercise" is not so simple
On 22 April, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu announced at a meeting in Crimea that the Russian army would end its large-scale raid readiness inspections of the western and southern military districts and withdraw the "combat readiness inspection units" from the border areas; the troops would return to their regular positions from 23 April until 1 May. The Russian-Ukrainian border confrontation, which aroused the attention of the international community, and even feared that it was only "one step away" from the war, ended in a rather dramatic way.
Shoigu said the goal of the raid had been fully achieved and that the Russian military had "demonstrated the ability to ensure a reliable defense of the country." At the same time, he also pointed out that the Russian military will continue to pay close attention to NATO's "European Defenders-2021" exercise (which lasted from March to June, including the Balkan Peninsula and the Black Sea region), and is prepared to respond quickly to the "unfavorable" development of the situation.
| On the day Russia announced its withdrawal, Russian military vehicles in Crimea were still exercising in Crimea. Russian defense ministry press service/ap
Since Russia began increasing its troops on the Russian-Ukrainian border at the end of March, ukraine's eastern region has been mired in month-long tensions. During this period, Russia, Ukraine and NATO not only put pressure on each other politically, diplomatically and militarily, but also exchanged fire in public opinion.
Although Russia insisted that the operation was a pure "surprise check" and did not pose a threat to either side, Ukraine and the West regarded Russia's "military deployment" as a preparation for "expansion" in ukraine's eastern region. According to the EU's High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Josep Borrelli, on April 19, Russia has deployed more than 100,000 troops in the Russian-Ukrainian border area, an unprecedented scale.
Looking at the Russia-Ukraine border standoff over the past month, it can be described as the most tense moment in the region since the Crimean incident in 2014, and Borelli even warned at one point that "a little Spark can ignite the situation". Although the Russian military's message to the outside world from the beginning to the end of the announcement is a "surprise combat readiness inspection" within the military, whether it is the warning of Dmitry Kozak, deputy director of the Russian President's Office, on the "beginning of the end of Ukraine" or the dynamics of the United States and NATO before and after the Russian military launched the "war readiness inspection", it is highlighted that this military operation is not so simple.
Since Biden entered the White House, the new US administration has changed the relatively ambiguous attitude of the Trump era, regarded Russia as a major strategic opponent, and adopted a tougher policy toward Russia:
From continuing to accuse Russia of interfering in the 2020 U.S. presidential election, to february 25 air strikes on Iranian (Russian ally)-backed militia targets in eastern Syria, to March 17, biden calling Putin a "killer" (Russia subsequently recalled Ambassador to the United States Antonov), to US Secretary of State Blinken's recommendation to Germany at the NATO Foreign Ministers' Summit to abandon the Nord Stream-2 gas pipeline project and call on all countries to work together to reach Russia, a series of tough words and deeds by the United States have further entered the "cold winter" of US-Russia relations.
In mid-March, nato's "European Defenders-2021" exercise, led by the United States, kicked off, further alarming Russia. As one of NATO's largest military exercises, a total of 28,000 people from the armed forces of 27 countries participated in the exercise, covering more than 30 exercise venues in more than a dozen countries. In addition to the large number of participating countries and militaries, the exercise spanned the Balkans and the Black Sea region, using key land and sea passages connecting asia, Europe and Africa, and the intention of targeting Russia was obvious.
| NATO "European Defender-2021" exercise. Image source: south front
In addition, the Biden administration's solidarity and support for Ukraine have also strengthened Ukraine's tough confidence against Russia. On March 1, the U.S. Department of Defense announced $125 million in military aid to Ukraine, in addition to an additional $150 million this year if Ukraine's military reforms make "full progress," and on April 2, shortly after russian forces began conducting combat readiness inspections in Crimea, Biden spoke by phone with Ukrainian President Zelenskiy and made clear his "unwavering support for Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity."
After finally getting the "support" of the United States, Zelenskiy's waist bar also hardened. On 23 March, Zelenskiy signed a presidential decree against top Russian government officials, the media (including TASS) and businesses, involving as many as 82 companies, following sanctions against Ukrainian lawmakers, pro-Russian opposition leader Medvychuk, and three pro-Russian Ukrainian television stations he controlled in February.
In addition, Ukraine has made frequent moves in the eastern region (russia calls it "provocation"), and Zelenskiy has also personally been on the front line of the conflict, clearly conveying to the Ukrainian army the determination to recover the "lost land" of Donbass and not compromise with Russia. In the diplomatic field, Ukraine is also increasingly active in moving closer to NATO and the European Union: on February 9 this year, Ukrainian Prime Minister Denis Shmigar once again expressed the hope that Ukraine and Georgia would join NATO at the same time, and received a positive commitment from NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg.
| On April 9, Ukrainian President Zelenskiy personally visited the Donbass region, the front line of the conflict. Source: ukrainian presidential press service/reuters/time
When Ukraine cooperates with the United States and NATO in an extremely positive way, trying to further deter Russia and reduce its strategic living space, Russia will naturally not sit still. Under the order of the whole army's "surprise combat readiness inspection", the Russian army not only increased its troops in large quantities in the Russian-Ukrainian border area in the west and south, but also blocked the Kerch Strait, the only passage between the Azov Sea and the Black Sea, and once threatened the passage of warships and merchant ships in the sea.
In this sensitive period, Russia's large-scale combat readiness inspection of all branches of the armed forces can obviously not be explained by simple routine work: in addition to the inherent five major military regions, even training grounds and military bases in the Arctic, Kamchatka Peninsula and Kuril Islands are also involved; 4048 exercises were held in more than 20 days, involving more than 1 million active military personnel. In the face of the "aggressive" momentum of the United States, NATO and Ukraine since 2021, Russia naturally has to show its strength and deterrence.
After the "flag is over", what are the gains and losses of all parties?
When Shoigu announced the completion of the Russian mission and withdrawal, Ukraine breathed a sigh of relief, and President Zelenskiy welcomed and thanked "international partners" in a post on social networks; the US State Department still reluctantly said "we need to see action" and "continue to pay attention to the situation" after its hyped skepticism of "Russian aggression" was broken by the fact that Russian troops withdrew; and Russia, which initiated and ended the operation from beginning to end, left heavy weapons on the western border for the next exercise.
| In the face of pressure from Western countries, Putin responded strongly in his State of the Union address. Image source: ap/voa news
Behind the different reactions, the different gains and losses of the parties and interested parties in this dramatic event are highlighted.
For Russia, the start of border operations on the grounds of the "surprise combat readiness inspection" of the whole army and the withdrawal of troops in the name of "the end of the combat readiness inspection" have achieved consistency in the external caliber. In the course of the massive border operation, despite the expulsion of Russian diplomats by Ukraine, the Czech Republic and Slovakia, and the suspected Polish military exercises interfering with the construction of the Nord Stream-2 gas pipeline, this did not materially hinder Russia's ongoing plans:
Ukrainian President Zelenskiy from the "recovery of lost land" tough posture, to visit NATO countries to seek support, and then on April 20 took the initiative to "seek peace" and invited Putin to the Donbass talks, reflecting the deterrent effect played by Russia's military exercise; and Putin, who had the initiative, responded easily, saying that Russia is not a party to the conflict in eastern Ukraine, if you want to discuss Russian-Ukrainian bilateral relations, invite Zelenskiy to meet in Moscow, and reiterate Russia's posture of "staying out of the matter and not sticking to the leaves" during the conversation;
On April 9, the news that the United States will send two destroyers to the Black Sea was exposed by the Turkish Foreign Ministry, which was obviously intended to deter Russia by military means, but Russia was not moved, and warned the United States on April 13 to "stay away from crimea and the Black Sea coast"; the next day, the United States informed Turkey that the United States would cancel the plan to launch the destroyer, and did not give any reason, but only explained that "Turkey misunderstood the first notice of the United States"; the attempt of the United States to intervene and threaten was easily resolved. Undoubtedly eliminated the biggest potential resistance to Russia's military operation;
Since the United States is unwilling to invest too much substantive intervention in this incident, the interference actions of NATO allies will not affect Russia; even though the United States, Poland and Ukraine strongly oppose it, German Chancellor Angela Merkel once again stressed on April 20 that "Germany has decided to support the construction of the 'Nord Stream-2' natural gas pipeline"; the next day, putin issued a State of the Union address to the Russian parliament, warning other countries not to cross the "red line" in their relations with Russia; from the current "Nord Stream-2" is 93% complete. Judging from the effectiveness and steady progress, some media speculated that the United States gave up obstructing the construction of the gas pipeline in exchange for Russia's withdrawal from the border.
| Nord Stream-2 is an important energy corridor between Europe and Russia, and together with the original Nord Stream-1 pipeline, it can meet about a quarter of the natural gas needs of EU countries. The project, which runs from Russia to Germany, will enhance Germany's energy position. But it has also sparked opposition from the United States and some Eastern European countries, which fear it would increase Russia's geopolitical and economic influence over Europe. The United States has also launched a number of sanctions against project stakeholders.
The absence of a war deterred Ukraine, resisted the united States' pushback, and stabilized the status quo in the east of Ukraine that was substantially favorable to Russia, while the crimea and Black Sea waters under its control were not affected in the slightest, and the Nord Stream-2 project continued with the firm support of Germany. From the current point of view, the US government's hard-line policy toward Russia, as well as the wave of activities of NATO and Ukraine, has not caused Russia to change its existing internal and external strategies, let alone led to Russia giving up any strategic positions.
Ukraine, the other direct party, by contrast, is less than desirable.
Although Russia eventually announced the withdrawal of its large armies from the border, it was by no means completely deterred, as evidenced by the fact that the border areas left heavy weapons and the possibility of re-operation. Since the beginning of April, the Ukrainian government has been actively moving between NATO and its member states for support:
President Zelenskiy first spoke with NATO Secretary-General Stoltenberg, hoping to obtain membership as soon as possible so as to enjoy collective security guarantees; then met with Turkish President Erdogan in Kiev, and then went to Paris to meet with the leaders of France and Germany (German Chancellor Angela Merkel participated in a video conference), and won the verbal solidarity of the leaders of the three countries;
Foreign Minister Dmitry Kureba traveled to Brussels in mid-April to interview Stoltenberg and Blinken, reiterating Russia's threat and the need for a response; although he received "unwavering support" for Ukraine, he did not receive any commitment to sanction Russia or provide Ukrainian military support; Blinken said only that he would consult with NATO allies and partners, and Stoltenberg vaguely stated that "the 30 NATO countries will decide when Ukraine is ready to join."
| Zelenskiy (left) meets with French President Emmanuel Macron. Image source: afp/getty images
In fact, NATO's "support" for Ukraine is only "lip service but not real", the US destroyer has cancelled the operation before it has moved, and no new sanctions have been imposed on Russia. Ukraine seems to have achieved the effect of withdrawing Russian troops, but the initiative is mainly in the hands of the Russian side, and Zelenskiy's series of words and deeds before the Russian military readiness inspection have not changed the situation in eastern Ukraine.
In addition to reviving his own support for last year's local elections, Zelenskiy and the Ukrainian government have been busy going round and business as usual (zelenskiy's poll satisfaction rose from 39.5 percent to 45 percent in March in two weeks, according to the Kiev International Institute of Sociology), while the policy of turning across the West and staunchly opposing Russia remains ineffective.
For indirect parties – the United States and its European allies – the game and interaction with Russia is destined to be a protracted process. The U.S. government's toughness has not deterred Putin, nor has it substantially damaged Russia's morale. But after all, without sending a single soldier, russia was "tossed" at a very low cost, but it also ensured that the situation between Russia and Ukraine did not change in a more unfavorable direction for the United States, which shows the dual weight of US military deterrence and economic sanctions, and it is also impossible for Russia not to be afraid.
The day after the Russian military announced its withdrawal, the White House announced that Biden would visit Britain and Belgium in mid-June, attend NATO and EU summits, reaffirm the U.S. commitment to "NATO, transatlantic security and collective defense," and hold bilateral talks with allied leaders. Three months after Blinken's visit to Europe, Biden personally went to reassure European allies and show that the United States' containment of Russia would not stop at a border "crisis."
| The official website of the White House on April 23 announced Biden's visit to Europe. Source: the white house
In addition to Ukraine, European countries can also breathe a temporary sigh of relief after Russia's withdrawal. Russia's relatively restrained and rational approach to the end ensures that Europe is not tied to the anti-Russian chariots of the United States and Ukraine for the time being. In addition to Poland, the Czech Republic and a few other affected countries, the construction of the "Nord Stream-2" natural gas pipeline continues to advance, and the energy supply is guaranteed, which is undoubtedly a situation that all countries are happy to see, which means that Europe can still handle its relations with Russia independently and will not be at the mercy of the "Russian threat theory" rendered by the United States and Ukraine.
Of course, the "European Defender-2021" exercise is still continuing, and the joint Ukrainian-NATO "Cossack Hammer 2021" exercise will also kick off this summer. Russia's large-scale military operations on the border seem to have come to an end, but in the absence of internal and external contradictions, if the parties concerned fail to properly manage their differences and return to the provisions of the Minsk agreement and the OSCE Vienna document, similar regional conflicts may still repeat in other forms.