Second Order Toshihiro and Suga Yoshihide
Text/Li Ruoyu (The author is a special researcher of the Center for Japanese Studies, a key research base for regional and country studies in Sichuan Province)
On September 29, the results of the election of the new president of Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party will be officially released. With the LDP having a majority of seats in the House of Representatives, the elected LDP president is almost certain to succeed Yoshihide Suga as Japan's new prime minister.
The plot of japan's Liberal Democratic Party presidential election can be described as twists and turns. Under pressure, Suga, who originally intended to continue to take the helm of the "Sun No Maru" through re-election as president, finally announced that he would abandon the campaign, thus opening a new chapter in the struggle for the buck within the LDP.
As the current prime minister, Suga Yoshihide has been strongly resisted at the grassroots level, partly because the Suga government's policy of responding to the epidemic is difficult to satisfy the people, on the other hand, because he has been labeled as "conservative and dull" during his one year in power, and the Suga government is also considered to be "a product of Japan's elderly politics".
In order to change the negative image, the 72-year-old Suga offered the banner of reform and "dissuaded" the LDP's "big butler", the 82-year-old secretary general, Second Order Toshihiro, who broke his wrist. You know, for Suga, who does not belong to any faction in the party, the second-order Toshihiro is an important political promoter who puts him on the position of prime minister. However, due to the trend of the times, Suga Yoshihide not only failed to "escape with a broken tail", but also made the second-order Toshihiro take the position of the chief secretary of the Liberal Democratic Party in vain. The reason why Toshihiro Niji is regarded by the Japanese people as a representative of "old-age politics" and "hatred is exploding" is not unrelated to his long political career.
Second-order Junbo
"Black Spot"
The reason why "civilian Prime Minister" Yoshihide Suga was once popular among Japanese citizens in the early days of his administration was due to the common people's antipathy to the hereditary political power within the Liberal Democratic Party. Although toshihiro Niji did not have the same generations as the two former prime ministers, Shinzo Abe and Taro Aso, he still benefited greatly from his father, who served as a county councilor in his hometown of Wakayama Prefecture (the equivalent of a Chinese province). For people affected by the epidemic who have to worry about their livelihoods every day, such a birth is undoubtedly not very pleasing. In the eyes of young people, the second-order Toshihiro intends to cultivate his son to take over his own political turf, so that the second-order family can "door valve" the political calculation, but also the "old school can not be old" japanese political circles accumulated habits.
Although "hereditary politics" is easy to attract public dissatisfaction, if it is indeed a material that can be made, there is still no shortage of precedents for the transformation of Kono Taro and Koizumi Jinjiro into a new generation of political stars. The problem is that the "second-order family man" has not yet become a political star, but has first become a celebrity in Japanese lace reporting. Naoya, the second son of Toshihiro 2nd Order, was not only rumored to have a relationship with the underworld, but also found hanging out late at night in the sound and color places in Tokyo late at night due to the outbreak of the epidemic in Tokyo again in August this year, when ordinary people were asked to avoid unnecessary "self-purging" at home. How can it not be infuriating that the rich and colorful life of the "second-order family man" contrasts with the government's demands on the people? And this account naturally must also be credited to the second order Toshihiro, who deliberately promoted the second order Naoya as the secretary of the cabinet minister.
Not only is he affected by the "son of filial piety", but in the eyes of the Japanese people, Second Order Toshihiro himself has a "black spot". In 2016, the second-order Toshihiro became the oldest LDP secretary general. On September 8, 2020, he broke the record for Kakuei Tanaka's tenure as the longest-serving LDP secretary-general, a record that is still being set every day.
The Secretary-General is the chief steward of the Liberal Democratic Party and holds the power to handle party affairs. The second-order Toshihiro from Kakuei Tanaka not only took over the position of secretary general tanaka had served in the past, but also inherited Tanaka's political style to a certain extent. The secretary general can not only provide a platform for the decisive second-order Junbo to show his fists, but also let him be contaminated with "black gold". As the LDP's grand steward, the secretary general has a large amount of "confidential fees" that do not need to be used publicly, and the LDP's 2019 revenue and expenditure report released in 2020 shows that the "confidential fees" dispatched in the name of the second order Toshihiro in 2019 alone are as high as 1 billion yen, and if the statistical period is extended to 2016, when the second order took office, this figure will exceed 3.7 billion yen. Since the second order came from the post-war "black gold political originator" Tanaka Kakuei, these large and unexplained expenditures were naturally associated with the "black gold", even if there was no evidence to confirm the outside world's doubts about the second order Toshihiro.
Since he was transferred from the Wakayama Prefectural Assembly to the House of Representatives in 1983, it has been nearly 40 years since toroku 2nd rank Toshihiro entered the Japanese central government. If he had been as useless as public opinion says today, his political career would have ended long ago. It is only today, when the number of new confirmed cases of new coronavirus in Japan remains high in a single day, there must be elders in high positions in the political arena to be responsible for the Japanese government's basically failed epidemic response policy, and the second-order Toshihiro is one of such high-ranking people.
On September 17, four LDP presidential candidates, Taro Kono, Fumio Kishida, Sanae Takashi, and Seiko Noda, appeared on the campaign
"Heroes"
Compared with Japan, looking at the political career of the second order from the outside seems to give it an objective evaluation. Observing Japanese politicians from outside Japan is inevitably different from the perspective of Japan. Just like in Japan, Tanaka Kakuei's first impression of "the originator of black gold politics" is already indelible, but from the perspective of Sino-Japanese relations, Tanaka Kakuei was a practitioner of the normalization of Sino-Japanese diplomatic relations in 1972. The second-order Junbo is a recognized "pro-China" politician. As early as September 1989, a 160-person delegation led by Keiwa Okuda came to Beijing in a very complicated political environment, and thus formed an indissoluble relationship with China. In the process of China's peaceful rise, the second order Junbo also spared no effort to create momentum for Sino-Japanese friendship. Regarding the development of China's high-speed rail industry, when he visited China in January 2000, he proposed: "If Japanese technology can help China, then please don't be polite to the Chinese side, I will actively cooperate." ”
What is even more valuable is that the goodwill of the second-order Junbo to China is not simply to go with the flow. In Japan, second-order Toshihiro often has to face political pressure from "pro-American factions" or even "pro-Taiwan factions." For example, on the East China Sea issue, After becoming Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry, Toshihiro Niji withdrew his predecessor's decision to "unilaterally carry out trial development of relevant sea areas", putting the brakes on Japan's "rampage". In 2019, on behalf of Japan, Toshihiro 2nd Order attended the Second Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation held in Beijing from April 25 to 27, and announced that "Japan will fully cooperate with the Belt and Road Initiative". The change in the attitude of the Abe administration on the Belt and Road Issue is inseparable from the political influence of the second-order Toshihiro in the Liberal Democratic Party. So much so that the July 2020 report "China's Influence in Japan" published by the Institute of Strategic International Studies (CSIS), a conservative think tank in the United States, put a "pro-China" hat on Second Order Toshihiro and Abe's Cabinet Minister Naoya Imai.
Some people also believe that the "pro-China" of the second-order Junbo is based on practical needs. Because he served as the president of the Japan Tourism Association, Chinese tourists have been the backbone of Japan's domestic tourism market for many years. But I don't think so. There is a set of political concepts behind the "pro-China" behavior of the second order Junbo. For example, on historical issues, as early as February 2003, during his visit to South Korea, Niji Toshihiro expressed his deep approval of the Rok-side's proposal to "hope that Japan would establish a new mourning facility that can replace the Yasukuni Shrine", and said: "I once again recognize the necessity of establishing new mourning facilities and will work hard to achieve this goal." In February 2015, Second Order Toshihiro, who led a 1,200-person delegation to South Korea, agreed with then-South Korean President Park Geun-hye to "actively work on solving the comfort women issue." It can be seen that on such a matter of principle as historical understanding, the second-order Junbo not only showed a sincere attitude in the presence of the Chinese side, but also held the same position on other occasions. Whether or not we can be "consistent in appearance" is an important criterion for distinguishing politicians from "acting" politicians.
The position of Toshihiro Niji in Japanese domestic politics is ultimately judged by the Japanese people, but fair judgment sometimes takes some time. However, on the issue of Sino-Japanese relations, today's second-order Junbo can already be called "a hero of Sino-Japanese friendship." Whether it is after the LDP's presidential election or in the days to come, the political turf of the second-order Junbo will eventually be handed over to a new generation of politicians, but it remains to be seen whether his role in the LDP as an "important town" for China's exchanges can be smoothly handed over.
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