Author: Li Yunfei|Source: Original
An old entrepreneurial driver who has been in the mall for a long time, pay attention to me, share a little wealth dry goods every day, and make your life less detours.
2021 is only a few months away, and this is really a year of big changes, everything is changing. Recently, the exchange rate of the renminbi against the US dollar has reached a new high, breaking through the important mark of 6.4 and creating the first major breakthrough since June this year. Does this just mean that the money in the hands of our common people has become more valuable? If you really think so, you're dead wrong.
What causes the appreciation of the renminbi? What kind of impact will the appreciation of the renminbi have on Our society and individuals? This is not only related to the pocketbooks of our people, but also to the economic development of our country. Today I'm here to tell you the whole answer.
First of all, let's talk about the reasons for the appreciation of the renminbi.
The first reason is that the DOLLAR continues to release water. We all know that an epidemic in 2020 will release trillions of dollars in water in the United States. The release of the dollar led to the depreciation of the dollar, and the depreciation of the dollar means that the renminbi is appreciating.
The second reason is the depreciation of the US dollar and the appreciation of the renminbi, which prompts the hot money of capital to enter the RENMINBI market to invest, in order to obtain the difference in price returns brought about by the fluctuations in the exchange rate market, which makes the RMB appreciate even more.
The third reason is that the strong recovery of China's own economy and industry has supported the active appreciation of the renminbi. An epidemic in 2020 has made China a world export center, and a large number of orders have contributed to the growth of China's export trade. Eventually, these export companies will have to throw out dollars and increase their holdings of rmb transactions.
Second, let's talk about what advantages will the appreciation of the renminbi bring to us?
1. The appreciation of the renminbi is definitely conducive to product imports. Because the purchasing power of the renminbi is stronger, we can buy more imported goods with less money. Just imagine, China is the world's largest importer, this renminbi appreciates, China only imports goods every year to save a lot of money.
2, the money in the hands of the people has become more valuable. Because the price of many imported goods will become cheaper. Secondly, assets denominated in RMB will also appreciate. For example, like houses, stocks and so on.
3. It can hedge the pressure brought about by international inflation. For example, the current prices of commodities, oil, iron ore, coal, etc. are rising all the way, so that the appreciation of China's renminbi will hedge off part of the price difference, thereby reducing the production costs of enterprises.
Finally, let's talk about what disadvantages will the appreciation of the renminbi bring to us?
The adverse impact of the appreciation of the renminbi on China's economy is mainly manifested in the pressure on China's foreign trade exports, which will reduce the profits of Chinese enterprises and increase the employment pressure of domestic personnel.
Imagine that export products are priced in DOLLARs, and if the renminbi appreciates, it means that the same amount of dollars earned back will be exchanged for less renminbi. If the price of the product is to be kept in sync with the price of the renminbi, then the dollar price of the product must rise, so that the competitiveness of the product in the world will certainly weaken.
Just like Japan that year, under the leadership of the United States, the yen ushered in a major appreciation, Japanese companies came under unprecedented pressure on the production of American products, and the growth rate of Japanese exports fell from the previous 3.9% to -16.8% in 1986. Japanese companies can't sell their products. In order to solve this problem, society has adopted lower interest rates and issued more money.
Second, due to the appreciation of the yen, the hot money of foreign capital has flowed to Japan. As a result, after the hot money in the society was more, everyone began to speculate in houses and stocks, and once speculated on Japanese house prices to a high point, and then ushered in a major collapse in the property market.
Of course, at this stage, China is suppressing housing enterprises and suppressing capital. Therefore, even if the renminbi appreciates, it will certainly not lead to a domestic economic crisis due to the appreciation of the national currency, as Japan did.
Finally, let's sum up, the appreciation of the renminbi is still more beneficial than harmful. Although it is said that the appreciation of the renminbi has an adverse impact on the export of Chinese products. But from the other hand, this can also stimulate the internal circulation of the economy, force enterprises to upgrade and innovate, and eliminate those low-end industries that are overly dependent on foreign markets.
More importantly, the renminbi has appreciated, which also means that China's economy is developing on the good side, which is more conducive to the internationalization of the renminbi.
For us ordinary people, the appreciation of the renminbi means a large amount of international capital and hot money inflows, which will bring about an increase in liquidity in our stock market, bond market, and commodity market, which will also promote the asset prices of financial markets to a certain extent.
Therefore, in our asset allocation, we must avoid listed companies and asset types that rely on market liquidity, high debt, and low profits.
To put it bluntly, we don't always want to make quick money. Because fast money comes and goes fast. Grasp high-quality core assets and be prepared for long-term investment. More importantly, in the face of the uncertainty of the environment, in case of emergency, cash flow is king.
In 2021, the year of great changes, the value of the human currency has appreciated again, what impact do you think it will have on our people? Welcome to leave a message to discuss.
Author: Li Yunfei, founder of a well-known Internet company, CEO of a large food chain enterprise, engaged in the Internet and physical chain industry for 16 years, has been reported by Sohu.com, NetEase Finance, Tencent, Phoenix.com, Zhongxun.com, Baidu and other well-known media platforms, good at Internet marketing, chain enterprise management.