Today is the last day of 2020, and this year of disasters is finally coming to an end.
What everyone may not realize is that we are standing on the dividing line of history.
When history happens, people living in this era do not feel different, maybe at this time you are sitting calmly on the subway after work, looking at everyone's expressionless look, can't help but feel the mobile phone to pass the time; maybe in the evening after the snow, run into the café to chat with friends, the table is crackling; or you are lying on the bed in the deep winter of the rental house with a quilt, like a macho man, the big legs that were accidentally exposed outside are retracted.
When everyone spends this day in peace, they do not know that 2020, which is about to pass, is a year that changes history and is an important node in the history of human civilization.
We look back a hundred years ago, in 1920, when the United States was engaged in Prohibition, China abolished the text, Hitler withdrew from the Twenty-Five Point Program, India began a non-cooperative movement, Trotsky's Red Army troops were blocked in Warsaw, Sun Yat-sen returned to Guangzhou to rebuild the military government, and Cai Hesen wrote a letter to Mao Zedong advocating the founding of the party.
A hundred years ago, in 1920, the world had just turned upside down from the First World War, but the hatred between empires was growing stronger, and the European countries were timidly ready to tear up for a second time.
At this time, China was just a country with no sense of existence, warlords everywhere, the people did not talk about life, and they did not eat.
In the past hundred years, the world pattern has hardly changed at all, the first-class political game has been unfolding between Britain, the United States, France, Germany, Russia, and Japan, and the rest of the world is just their appetizer, and in the past 100 years they have only exchanged seats.
And it is very likely to replace the United States and become the world's largest economy.
The clearest turning point occurred in 2020, when an epidemic changed the global economy dramatically.
For the whole of 2020, according to IMF's calculations, the global economy is expected to shrink by 4.4%, of which the annual GDP of the United States will shrink by 3.5%, totaling about 20.1 trillion US dollars; the entire European Union will shrink by 7.5%, and the total amount of the whole Europe will be about 16.7 trillion US dollars; ASEAN will shrink by 4.4%, Russia will shrink by 4%, and Japan, which has barely broken through 5 trillion US dollars of GDP, has fallen back to 4.9 trillion US dollars, down about 5%, back to the level of 1994, and has been in the same place for three decades.
India is the worst in the world, with annual GDP shrinking by about 9.5%, creating only $1.867 trillion in GDP in the third quarter, while their total GDP last year was $2.88 trillion, the worst country in Asia.
The global economy in 2020 is seven times the decline in the 2009 financial crisis! It was also the worst recession in the world since the Great Depression of the 1930s.
Among the world's major economies, only China can achieve positive growth of about 2%, and China is expected to grow as much as 8% in 2021, about 5% in 2022, and An average annual growth rate of 4.5% in China in 2023-2030. (CEBR Forecast Data)
Starting in 2021, China will contribute a third of global growth.
In 2020, China's total GDP is expected to be around 15.2 trillion US dollars, accounting for 18.15% of global GDP, in 2019, the total GDP gap between China and the United States is 6.7 trillion US dollars, in 2020 will shrink to 5.58 trillion US dollars, a year to catch up with 1.116 trillion US dollars, according to this pursuit speed, five or six years may surpass the United States, of course, this is the ideal number, the United States will definitely suppress China's pursuit.
Reuters is recently speculating that China will surpass the United States in 2028 to become the world's largest economy, we thank Reuters for its recognition, but we Chinese in the weakest 100 years ago, there was no arrogance, today we have a little achievement, nor do we intend to be arrogant, what others say is not important, we want to continue to move forward step by step.
However, we must also think about why it is Chinese that so many nationalities in the world, so many countries that have had a glorious history, and so many great empires have emerged. Why not Indians? Not Egyptian? Not Iraqis (Two Rivers Civilization)? Not Iranians (Persian civilization)?
I believe that there is an indomitable spirit in the cultural genes of our Chinese nation, which is an important reason why we can get back up after falling down several times.
The brilliance of the ideas of the sages, separated by thousands of years of history, is still shining brightly, shining in the ancient and modern, nourishing the soul of every Chinese.
Even twenty years ago, when China was at its most rampant, in the era when I was proud to speak English, I only had to read the Tang poems and Song Ci, and the sense of comfort that left my mouth full of incense also made me full of love for national culture, which is completely unexpressible in English, the beauty that belongs to Chinese characters alone, and the beauty that belongs to Chinese civilization.
This basic national self-confidence, which we have always had, cannot be overwhelmed by other civilizations.
The epidemic in 2020 has made more Chinese people recognize the advantages of their own nation, and also see that the European and American nationalities are not as good as imagined, in our view, observing discipline and not causing trouble to others is a common sense, safeguarding national interests is more important than personal interests, but In Europe and the United States, personal interests are sprayed everywhere under the banner of "freedom", do not take the lockdown order seriously, do not take the lives of the elderly and the poor seriously, as long as they live a cool and important life, resulting in repeated epidemics, all counting on vaccine rescue.
I will always remember the conclusion that when the epidemic broke out in Wuhan, the foreign reporters said that China must have freedom and democracy to control the epidemic, and after a year, this picture should still be pulled out and punched in the face.
U Dandan of the German "Der Spiegel" magazine will leave a name in history because of this remark
China is still the best country in the world to control the epidemic without the system of european and American liberal democracy, is that proof that China has something better than liberal democracy, but you have not found it?
In an interview with the French newspaper Le Figaro on December 26, Fukuyama continued to attack the Chinese system, saying that China's advantages may not last, that it will be difficult for the system to adapt to change, and that "the West should not lose confidence, in the final analysis, democracy will be a better system."
The 330,000 people who died of COVID-19 in the United States heard this sentence in the coffin and couldn't help but lift the coffin board and stretch out their hands to praise.
In 2020, Western-style ideologies suffered an unprecedented collapse in China, and the public knows came out and crushed one by one.
However, as we celebrate the victory, I suggest that you first fasten your seat belts and grab the armrests of your seats, because the great changes in 2020 have buried a great hidden danger for the world.
In March 2020, the US stock market melted down a total of four times, and the history of the US stock market only melted five times, we all know that the US capital market has accumulated deep shortcomings, coupled with this wave of epidemics directly to the core, it was about to start the rhythm of the global economic crisis.
The U.S. stock market is the life and death line of the American people's wealth, and the Fed did not hesitate to activate the faceless infinite QE, saving the U.S. stock market that was about to collapse.
As 2021 approaches, the consequences of unlimited QE water releases are emerging.
At the same time, the global central bank is cooperating with the United States to release 20 trillion US dollars in the whole year, and the dollar has depreciated, resulting in a sharp increase in the price of global commodities such as iron ore, thermal coal, rebar, and bitcoin.
According to the past plot, China should also cooperate with the United States to release water and flow money into real estate, triggering another national surge in real estate.
But China did not this time, and China no longer plays with the United States.
The game of capital ends here, and we have to take another path of national development.
Another consequence of infinite qe is the exacerbation of the global gap between rich and poor, with the total assets of the 600 richest people in the United States increasing by $434.5 billion this year, and American workers losing $1.3 trillion, an average of $8900 per person.
Most countries around the world, after the end of the epidemic, are expected to recover to 2019 levels in 2024.
Looking back at the Great Depression of the 1930s, in order to compete for the market and fight for the dumping of other countries with their own products, the financially closely related countries formed various groups of the pound, dollar, and yen to confront each other, and the conflict became more and more intense, and finally triggered World War II.
Just like Lao Wang and the old Li family have no money, Lao Wang asked Old Li to hand over all the money to him, Old Li did not comply, the strong old King beat Old Li on the ground, beat Old Li full of blood, Old Li had to hand over all the money, and finally Old Li went bankrupt, sold the family's valuable belongings, and could only go out again to work for people, and could only do the hardest and most tired and cheapest work, and the old Li daughter-in-law was forced to stand on the street and be insulted, swallowing anger and living a life.
Economic crises are generally resolved through a single violence.
Failed countries will always accept unspeakable shame, will be forced to sell their resources, endure the exploitation of the victorious countries' lending companies, and in order to earn foreign exchange, a large number of laborers will go to the victorious countries to do miscellaneous work, women will become the playthings of the victorious countries, state-owned assets will become the treasury of the victorious countries, and a large number of unemployed people will run to the underworld, abducting people, selling organs, selling drugs, running casinos, building underground brothels, robbing mining resources, collecting protection fees, and so on.
If it were not for the fact that China is strong enough now, India, which has fallen the hardest in the epidemic in all of Asia, would have pounced on it long ago, and everyone would still live in peace.
In fact, India tried several times this year, found that the other party is several times stronger than themselves, it is estimated that they are the one who was beaten, and they honestly did not dare to mess around.
The infinite QE of the United States has alleviated the arrival of the economic crisis, but the economic crisis is late, only because there is a nuclear deterrent, and now the major powers do not easily move, and small countries and small countries can take advantage of this turmoil to slash and kill, or act as agents of big powers.
This year's war between Azerbaijan and Armenia vividly illustrates this point, and the old Lee who lost the war is that Armenia is still lying in the corner crying.
Wipe away the tears and go out to work, the days still have to go on, your daughter-in-law first handed over to Azerbaijan to take care of for a while.
The war between Azerbaijan and Armenia in 2020 is a rehearsal for the world's impending turmoil.
The United States is unlikely to solve their financial problems, and the epidemic has accelerated the progress by five times, and the resulting world chaos is just around the corner.
Although it is impossible to predict exactly which year and which day, it is like everyone watching a balloon blow bigger and bigger, bigger and bigger, the balloon is almost translucent, almost certain to explode.
Two small rookie countries came out first to heat up, and the medium-sized countries that could not survive later, and the big countries with regional influence, will successively appear to grab survival resources.
The Great Depression of the 1930s ended in World War II, and the global atrophy of 2020 is not easy to understand.
The crisis begins in 2020.
When you read this article, you may be sitting calmly on the subway after work, or you may be chatting with friends in a café, or like a macho man who is pulling his long legs back from the outside of the quilt, you don't realize that history is happening, but history ignores anyone's opinion and runs past you with his head covered.
For the Chinese nation, facing the unprecedented changes in a hundred years, we have done a good job in advance to supply-side reform, but also cut off the financial kidnapping of real estate, the world crisis will definitely affect us, but the influence is far less than those countries that have opened their doors.
We've closed the curtains to make the Storm of the New Year more intense.