· The full text is 2195 words and lasts about 5 minutes to read
· Source of this article: Adam Smith Economics (produced by Liu Shengjun Micro Finance)
Author | Liu Shengjun, Hurun's 2016 China New Financial Industry Person of the Year
In the context of social discussion of common prosperity, the 2021 Hurun Hundred Rich List is hot. The significance of this list is that it is the first rich list under the "new economic pattern", reflecting the future trend of high-quality development, anti-monopoly of the platform economy, and the world's unprecedented changes in a century.
The 67-year-old Zhong became China's new richest man for 390 billion. He can be said to be the lowest-key richest man in China in recent years, but its products are not low-key at all, and almost all supermarkets and roadside shops have Nongfu Spring.
The rise of the Nongfu Spring brand is reminiscent of Buffett's beloved "Coca-Cola" legend in the 20th century.
According to the 2021 Interbrand Top 100 Global Brands, the top ten brands are American brands except Samsung in South Korea, Toyota in Japan, and Mercedes-Benz in Germany, and Coca-Cola ranks sixth. The formation of this situation is not difficult to explain: in the 20th century, the United States was the global consumer center.
Among the above top 100 companies, there is only one Chinese brand: Huawei (85th). This will be rewritten in the future, as China is overwhelmingly replacing the United States as the global consumer hub. At present, the scale of consumption in China and the United States is very close. McKinsey predicts that by 2035, China's consumer market will surpass the size of the United States and the European Union combined, becoming the world's top market of more than $10 trillion.
Nongfu Spring has become China's richest man, the market value of Haitian soy sauce has overwhelmed Vanke, and the market value of Dongpeng Special Drink has reached 100 billion ()... These are just the historical prelude to the rise of Chinese brands.
You read that right, the top ten actually do not have a mainland real estate rich! This is the first time that a property billionaire has been absent from the top ten. You know, the richest people in 2016 and 2017 were Wang Jianlin and Xu Jiayin respectively. In the turmoil of 2017, Wang Jianlin was forced to break his wrist and successfully saved his life, but his wealth shrank sharply, and this year's ranking fell to 41). Xu Jiayin is even more dangerous, and Evergrande is still wandering on the brink of bankruptcy
The proportion of real estate billionaires fell from 14.8% in 2019 to 10.6% in 2020 and 9.4% in 2021. The 15 real estate tycoons who ranked among the top 100 had a total net worth of 1,549 billion yuan, of which 5 had negative wealth growth. Xu Jiayin's wealth plummeted 69% to become the biggest loser of the year.
The central government clearly pointed out that "it is necessary to strengthen the coordination of industry development, accelerate the reform of monopoly industries, and promote the coordinated development of finance, real estate and the real economy." Guo Shuqing even called out that "real estate is the "gray rhinoceros" with the greatest financial risk at this stage." Not only that, real estate has also directly led to a series of social problems, which can be called the "number one obstacle" (.
The "three red lines" turned out to be the end of the "naked era" of the real estate industry. From a realistic point of view, the real estate market will definitely not fall, but those "naked swimming rich" who rely on "gambling and leveraging" to win wealth will withdraw. Xu Jiayin will not be the last (why didn't the Buddha bless Chen Feng?). ）。
In the past few years, Ma Yun and Ma Huateng have been the richest people with the most times, and Alibaba and Tencent are also the companies with the highest market value in China. Behind this is the platform power of the achievement of "bilateral market effect". Tencent and Alibaba have a billion-level user scale, which is an unprecedented "new species" in China's business history.
Anything beautiful has its dark side. With the platform having the "power of the flood", monopoly is inevitable: two choices, big data killing, disorderly expansion of capital and other issues follow. Since 2020, the central government has proceeded from the overall social situation and resolutely cracked the platform monopoly, the disorderly expansion of capital, and the arbitrage of financial supervision, and achieved remarkable phased results. Platform economy anti-monopoly, the current chess to the middle game, the future still has a long way to go
In its collective study on the digital economy, the Politburo of the CPC Central Committee pointed out that "it is necessary to correct and standardize the behaviors and practices that harm the interests of the masses and hinder fair competition in the process of development, prevent platform monopolies and disorderly expansion of capital, and investigate and deal with monopolies and unfair competition in accordance with the law." Guo Shuqing, chairman of the Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, believes that "the central government has timely proposed to strengthen anti-monopoly and prevent the disorderly expansion of capital." ”
Compared to its highest point, Alibaba's market capitalization has fallen by about $400 billion (2.5 trillion yuan). Today, the value of Ma Yun and Ma Huateng has been surpassed by the "38-year-old houlang" ByteDance Zhang Yiming. In the next few years, anti-monopoly will continue to be an important trend affecting the economic and social pattern.
Recently, Tesla's market value exceeded $1 trillion, and Musk became the world's richest man, reflecting the general trend of the green economy. China's ambitious goal of peaking carbon in 2030 and carbon neutrality in 2060, and US Special Envoy for Climate Kerry visit China twice a year, demonstrate the importance of this issue.
Behind the explosion of the green economy is the rapid progress of technology, especially new energy batteries. Zeng Yuqun, the founder of CATL, ranked third with a value of 320 billion yuan, which is the best portrayal of this trend. Among the top 10 entrepreneurs with the most wealth growth this year, 8 are related to new energy: 6 for electric vehicles and 2 for photovoltaics.
The biggest policy black swan in 2021 is the "double reduction policy". Affected by this, the wealth of Zhang Bangxin in the good future shrank by nearly 90 billion to 5.7 billion, the wealth of Yu Minhong of New Oriental shrank by nearly 20 billion to 7.5 billion, and Chen Xiangdong of Gaotu Education fell on the list of 80 billion yuan last year.
The central government proposed, ". "Young people are the main driver of innovation in a society. Once young people lie flat, the country will lose its momentum for sustainable development
Capital takes advantage of the weakness of Chinese and the tradition of Chinese parents to emphasize education, and the disorderly expansion of the field of discipline-based off-campus training not only brings serious internal volume and social resource consumption, but also destroys the happiness of a generation of children, and causes young people to be discouraged from childbearing. In this case, it is not entirely a complete surprise that discipline-based off-campus training has suffered a devastating blow
The new pattern of China's economy has arrived. Looking to the future, entrepreneurs must examine their own industries and companies and ask themselves a few questions
Did I roll in?
Am I sprawling out of order?
Have I developed high??
Do I support common prosperity?
Did I earn the last copper plate?
Only by committing to creating social value, always bearing the world in mind, and remembering social responsibility can we avoid the fate of sudden collapse.
In 2020, China will add more rich people than the rest of the world combined
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Liu Shengjun
Economists who insist on telling the truth
Guo is the president of the Institute of Financial Reform
In 2014, he participated in the Prime Minister's Economic Symposium
One of the representative figures of post-70s economists
Author of The Next Decade