Are house prices really starting to fall?

Recently, various cities have introduced the most stringent policies, can house prices withstand the pressure? Indeed, from 2016 to the present, there have been different policies to suppress the property market and introduce policies to control house prices. However, the house price is still rising, the core reason is that the policy can only manage the new house, manage the housing enterprise, but can not control the transaction of the second-hand house, so that the house price continues to be hot The fundamental reason is that there are two huge arbitrage spaces in the property market.

The first is scarce resources, in first-tier cities, locations, school districts, supporting facilities are becoming more and more mature. However, there is less and less land, so that the second-hand house price is higher than the first-hand house price, which makes many speculators squeeze their heads to grab new houses, just like "playing new stocks", grabbing is equivalent to earning.

The second is because the land price is more expensive than the house price, at this time, because the new house is not worried about selling, the first-hand real estate is sought after, and the second-hand house price is constantly pushed up, so that the housing enterprises have more confidence in taking the land, so the higher land is also auctioned. Therefore, there are frequent sky-high land prices, which makes the surrounding second-hand house prices continue to stand firm. With these two arbitrage spaces for a long time, second-hand houses are assured to boldly increase prices

But this year is different, and policies have been introduced in first-tier cities such as Shenzhen, Shanghai, and Guangzhou, and these policies have just hit seven inches of real estate. First of all, let's talk about the second-hand house guidance price, this trick is really cruel! This guidance price is to stipulate that the purchase and sale of houses in each community must be traded according to the guide price. This is a reference to the price of new houses around, which directly removes the price difference between first-hand houses and second-hand houses. This has fiercely suppressed the transaction of the second-hand market, so who dares to speculate in the house? If the house only lives and does not speculate, there is no room for profit, and the transaction volume of second-hand houses is the lowest point in ten years, so it is very clear to tell you that second-hand house prices have indeed begun to fall!

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To be continued...