As the "link" and "engine" connecting capital and the real economy, private equity funds have become an indispensable force in the capital market.
Tens of billions of private placements, generally active in the north, Shanghai, Guangzhou, shenzhen, there is a ten-billion-level private placement rooted in Guizhou, only a few years, has become the leader in the industry. This is the Youshan Fund.
On January 4th, the "Youshan Fund 2019 Strategy Report Meeting and Guizhou Water Investment Water Affairs Group Cooperation Launching Ceremony" hosted by Youshan Fund Management Co., Ltd. was held at the Guiyang International Ecological Conference Center.
The macro is loud and the micro is aware, and this is a grand gathering of stirring thoughts. Ideology determines the height, and this move of the Youshan Fund to hold a strategy report meeting for consecutive years is not only for its own development and growth, but also a high-pitched response to the overall economic and social situation, and truly find the integration point of finance and the central work of the party committee and government.
Although the solo trip is fast, the crowd is long-term, and this is a grand event of communication and cooperation. Leading figures in the financial industry such as banking, securities, and futures discussed how to continuously and deeply implement regulatory policies and maintain the stability and development of Guizhou's financial industry, forming many consensuses of epochal significance and highly constructiveness, laying a solid foundation for future cooperation.
This "ideological feast" has carried out in-depth forward-looking, trendy and pragmatic discussions, and radiated the charm of wisdom and viewpoint confrontation. In 2019, the vision of win-win cooperation is widely anticipated.
From this, the guests made wonderful speeches
Serving the real economy to help "Qiancheng" is like a brocade
He Xuan, executive vice president of Guizhou Securities Association and chairman of Youshan Fund Management Co., Ltd
In 2018, the Guizhou Securities Association celebrated its 10th birthday. In the past 10 years, the Guizhou Securities Association has accompanied the Guizhou capital market, from scratch, from small to large, from the quantitative change of the expansion of the qian stock market to the qualitative change of the rapid growth of the capital market.
It can be said that the Guizhou capital market has ignited the spark of industrial development in our province, become an accelerator to promote the development of the real economy and poverty alleviation in our province, and written a magnificent poem that dares to open up and dare to innovate. These achievements are a solid foundation laid by a generation of predecessors in Guizhou's securities industry, and will surely lay an evergreen foundation for the vigorous growth of the financial industry.
Over the past period of time, in accordance with the decisions and arrangements of the party Central Committee, the Securities Regulatory Commission, the Provincial Party Committee, and the Provincial Government on poverty alleviation, the Guizhou Securities Association has actively brought into play the characteristics and role of the capital market in poverty alleviation, and under the guidance of the Guizhou Supervision Bureau of the China Securities Regulatory Commission and the Guizhou Provincial Financial Supervision Bureau, it has organized listed companies, securities and futures fund institutions, enterprises listed on the New Third Board, and other capital market entities, forming a market poverty alleviation pattern with multiple measures, multi-dimensional efforts, and multi-party participation, and achieved good results 3. Creating a new future of colorful Guizhou has made due contributions.
Youshan Fund is also a new force in Guizhou Capital Market in this great battle. According to statistics, Youshan Fund is one of the 12 private equity fund managers in The country that have maintained a management scale of more than 10 billion yuan for three consecutive years; according to the latest research report of CITIC Securities, Youshan Fund ranks 28th in the comprehensive ability of more than 20,000 private fund managers in the country.
In the past two years, Youshan Fund has successively invested nearly 16 billion yuan in poverty alleviation industry funds in Guizhou Province, with good historical performance. At present, on the one hand, whether urban and rural water supply is safe is the core indicator of poverty alleviation, on the other hand, the task of consolidating and improving rural drinking water safety during the "Thirteenth Five-Year Plan" period in our province is still very heavy; at the same time, doing a good job in drinking water safety through the capital market is also a great practice in the field of green finance. Therefore, Youshan Fund actively took action and actively participated in this key work, which is also a microcosm of the courageous responsibility of Guizhou capital market on the road out of poverty, and a true portrayal of the cohesion and hard work of Guizhou securities industry in our new era.
In 2018, Guizhou's securities industry lived a very full life and walked very firmly. In 2019, there are opportunities and challenges. Only by laying a solid foundation of professional knowledge and actively improving ourselves can we do a good job in seeking truth from facts, and can we truly implement and do the best in our determination to serve the real economy and boost the economic development of our province, and achieve more beautiful results in 2019!
Transform the potential of demand into real demand
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities Research Institute Chief Economist Yang Chengcheng
In the past 40 years of reform and opening up, we have made great achievements and accumulated rich experience, but we are also facing new problems and challenges in the new era, and the second half of the journey should be said to be more arduous. The environment, conditions, and methods of future development, as well as the methods and means for governments to control the economy, will undergo fundamental changes.
One of the changes lies in the external environment. After China develops into the world's second largest economy, conflicts with Western countries in terms of system, science and technology, global governance discourse, governance rules and other levels have become increasingly prominent, and various conflicts and contradictions will become increasingly long-term. Sino-US trade frictions cannot be regarded as accidental events, but as a manifestation of the external development environment facing China in the new era.
The second change lies in the momentum of development. From the perspective of development economics, China's economy has achieved rapid development in the past four decades, which is an investment-led growth model of emerging economies in the take-off stage, and the institutional advantages of China's "concentrating on big things" have formed a good connection and superposition between the two.
The so-called concentration of forces to do big things means that the government concentrates the savings resources of the people in society to concentrate on investing in infrastructure and basic industries, forming a growth advantage in the advanced development of China's infrastructure construction and basic industries. With the advanced development of infrastructure and the advantages of high savings and sufficient human resources, the basic development logic of high savings, high investment, high manufacturing, high exports and high surpluses has naturally been formed.
However, investing ahead of time, developing infrastructure and real estate ahead of time, will allow us to move too quickly through the investment-driven growth stage and prematurely enter the mature stage with consumption and service demand as the core driving force. On the basis of acknowledging this fact, new impetus for development is sought.
At present, China's economic development has entered the development stage with consumption and service as the core driving force, how can the institutional advantages of "concentrating on doing great things" effectively transform into social needs under the new growth model? How do government forces and market forces form a superimposed coupling? At present, a good fit has not yet been formed. How to transform China's huge demand potential into real demand still needs a painstaking exploration process.
The change and breaking of the private placement situation under the new asset management regulations
Assistant General Manager of China Merchants Securities Custody Department Niu Zhongqiang
The supply-side structural reform of the financial industry is mainly "four to one supplement", that is, to go to the channel bubble, to arbitrage dividends, to off-balance sheet production capacity, to the number of institutions, and the return of the asset management industry to its roots, professional institutions will benefit. All in all, it marks the advent of the era of specialization.
Laws and regulations and self-discipline systems are basically sound. The multi-level regulatory system for private funds has been gradually improved, so the inspection of the operation of private funds has also been gradually carried out. Due to the introduction of the new asset management regulations, the regulations related to private equity funds may be adjusted in a targeted manner.
The overall growth rate has slowed down, and the head effect has become prominent. The growth rate of the number and scale of private equity funds has shown obvious slowdown. The number of product operations fell for the first time in nearly two years in August and September 2018, meaning that the number of fund liquidations exceeded the number of new filings; the size of existing products also showed the first negative growth in October 2018.
Asset allocation private fund managers are open for application. On August 29, 2018, the China Foundation Association issued the Answers to Questions Related to the Registration and Filing of Private Equity Funds (15), and private asset allocation fund managers officially opened their applications. The birth of the fourth type of fund can be seen as opening the door to a new world.
In addition, the industry changes also include the acceleration of the layout of foreign private equity in China, the suspension of the filing of lending private equity funds, and the outbreak of risk events.
In the asset management market of the crowd, how to break through?
Judging from the development trend of wealth management, China's asset management industry will have a lot of room for development in the future. After the new regulations, the active management of various asset management institutions is an inevitable choice for the entire industry to enter the market-oriented competition, and the competition will be extremely fierce. In the face of so many players on the same track, competing on the same stage, if you want to win, you must find the development path according to your own resource endowments and form certain business characteristics and brand advantages. In particular, it is necessary to pay attention to the improvement of the four major capabilities of marketing, service, products and investment research.
Look for good businesses that are flying against the wind
Chief Economist of Youshan Fund Management Co., Ltd. Jin Xiaobin
The domestic and international capital markets are constantly fluctuating, and the private equity industry is facing many tests; at the same time, the financial reform is deepening, and the role of private equity funds has been elevated to a new strategic height, and private equity funds are ushering in a new development situation.
How to find a good business that is flying against the wind? It is necessary to consider that prediction and evaluation are fundamental, information and logic are co-driven, technology and fundamentals are combined, and value and growth are balanced...
At the level of investment logic, taking the investment philosophy of Youshan Fund as an example, it mainly covers six aspects, such as moderate concentration, margin of safety, control drawdown, reverse investment, value-oriented, and absolute return.
At the level of investment practice, Youshan's equity investment framework starts from the three dimensions of corporate profitability, liquidity and risk preference, analyzes the profit changes in the upstream, middle and downstream from the three aspects of inventory, production capacity and demand, and considers the degree of benefit of the industrial chain, grasps the main contradictions affecting market operation, and rationally allocates various subdivisions.
Select enterprises with a good competitive pattern, strong innovation ability and high barriers, and carefully assess the intrinsic value of enterprises. Buy and hold when the price has a margin of safety and the market attention is not high, and earn capital appreciation brought about by corporate growth and valuation repair.
Strive for stable growth. Use the idea of absolute return to guide investment, strict drawdown control, and weigh the risk and return of investment opportunities. Be cautious about leveraged investments and reduce unnecessary asset volatility.
Systematic risk control index control system, set a strict stop loss mechanism, implement strict investment discipline, put an end to the uncontrollable risk, and control the risk loss within an acceptable range through scenario analysis and stress testing.
Pay attention to the dynamic balance between long-term returns and short-term interests, reasonably set the ratio of allocation assets to trading assets, and appropriately give up short-term capital gains when necessary to maximize long-term interests.
In short, enterprises with sustainable competitive advantage have five aspects of judgment: excellent management, good corporate governance structure, the "moat" of the enterprise is deepening, the industry is in the booming stage, and the financial health.
Market trends and allocation of large asset classes
Tao Junjie, Vice President and Director of Fixed Income of Youshan Fund Management Co., Ltd
In 2018, with the implementation of new asset management regulations, shadow banking business was restricted, the real economy encountered credit tightening problems, and the growth momentum weakened. However, when the confidence of private entrepreneurs was shaken, the government intervened in time to rescue, and the bottom was more solid.
It is observed that in 2019, macro policies will emphasize more on "strengthening counter-cyclical adjustment", fiscal policy will be "practical" more active, monetary policy will be more relaxed; the subsequent introduction of consumption, investment, exports and other aspects of the expansion of domestic demand growth; "three to one to one to reduce and one to supplement" The focus shifted to "one reduction and one supplement", and the real estate policy returned to the "residential essence".
It is expected that in 2019, the overall boost of market confidence will be the first priority, from risk appetite repair to profit stabilization.
Under the goal of structural deleveraging and risk prevention, there is no need to be overly pessimistic about manufacturing investment, the recovery of infrastructure investment is a high probability event, and "housing is not speculation" is still a major policy.
Monetary policy will be further relaxed, fiscal expansion will focus on local government special bonds in addition to narrow deficits and broader sources of funds such as bank asset management funds, bond financing, trust funds, etc., and financial supervision will still be marginally slowed.
Written by: Wei Lai Ouyang Mengqi