Blue, dark blue and purple are scattered on the rainfall forecast map on July 25, and the labeling of each color is poured into the painstaking efforts of Dong Quan, deputy chief forecaster of the Central Meteorological Observatory. Seemingly simple lines outline, but after many times of inner "game". With the accurate judgment of this map, including countless maps in the past, Dong Quan's outstanding performance in the response to typhoon "fireworks" was praised by the China Meteorological Administration.
The "purity" of tense moments
From July 23 to 24, the "uncertainty" of Typhoon Fireworks remained large. At 3:00 a.m. on the 25th, Dong Quan looked at the outer cloud system of the typhoon along the Coast of Jiangsu and Zhejiang after taking over - typhoon "fireworks" are about to land! A new question lies ahead: Where is the precipitation landing area after landfall?
According to the requirements, a rainstorm warning needs to be issued to the public before 5:30 on the 25th. The content of the early warning needs to be checked by the chief forecaster of the Central Meteorological Observatory, and the orange and higher level warnings also need to be reviewed by the central duty leader, so the time left for Dong Quan is only two hours. As a party member, he felt a great responsibility.
As in countless pasts, Dong Quan quickly threw himself into work, immersed in the huge data and complicated figures. "It was both the most tense and the most calming time." He recalled, "My world was so pure that only forecasting technology was left, and it was the most enjoyable moment to mobilize all the knowledge and experience to get the brain running at high speed and fully immersed in forecasting." ”
With 12 years of work experience, he accurately draws the forecast map of the national heavy rainfall area - there is heavy rain or heavy rain in parts of north-central Zhejiang, Shanghai, southern Jiangsu, southern Anhui, southern Taiwan Island and other places; among them, parts of northern Zhejiang, Shanghai, southeast jiangsu, southeastern Anhui and other places have heavy rainstorms, and northern Zhejiang has exceptionally heavy rainstorms.
The next day's TS score data showed a rainstorm area score of 0.377, higher than the GRABES model, the Eurocentric model and objective forecast products. Looking at the action, according to the precipitation intensity and landing area forecast of "fireworks", water conservancy, emergency management, natural resources, transportation and other departments have strengthened prevention, and the results of disaster prevention and reduction of departmental cooperation are obvious.
Dong Quan was fully engrossed in looking at the cloud map information. Photo/ Wu Hui
Team battle is the "king's way"
For the advanced typical honors obtained this time, Dong Quan frankly said that this does not belong to him personally.
Every successful forecast is the result of the "regimental battle" of the Central Meteorological Observatory. For example, the determination of the precipitation landing area relies heavily on the accurate forecast of the typhoon path, and each displacement change "affects the whole body", which is inseparable from the support and cooperation of the Typhoon and Marine Meteorological Forecasting Center of the China Meteorological Administration.
At night, Zhou Guanbo and Dong Quan, senior engineers of the Typhoon and Marine Meteorological Forecasting Center, are still fiercely discussing the "fireworks" walking path, repeatedly confirming the forecast map formed by the pattern; chief forecaster Ma Xueqian and the center's duty leader Wei Li check the landing area map and the text released layer by layer; the emergency post Ren Hongchang takes the initiative to take over other work except the forecast of the falling area... Everyone on the team contributes to more precise conclusions. Dong Quan deeply felt: the team is far more important than the individual, and the forecast must be the result of collective efforts.
In fact, opportunities are also reserved for those who are prepared. After each forecast, Dong will review and summarize the process and look for his own shortcomings. He has a process system for forecasting work – focusing on solving 80% of routine problems and constantly exploring 20% of new problems.
"Over the years, the three words of integrity, dedication and high accuracy are the three words he has left the deepest impression on me." "He's an all-round talent, doing forecasting business and developing technology." Colleagues talked about Dong all praised.
"Love-hate" forecasting work
Dong Quan, who is about to enter the year of confusion, talks about forecasting work, which is both love and "hate".
"Hate" is the disturbing "getting up gas" at 2 o'clock every day, and when he actually sits in front of the computer, his "hate" switches freely to "love" and devotes himself to the world of complicated data.
Forecasting work is actually an exploration of unknown things, and cracking the unknown behavior not only brings freshness to themselves, but also helps everyone reduce the uncertainty of judging things.
Since Dong Quan joined the company in 2009, in his view, he has undergone three "changes" in forecasting technology. The first forecast was dominated by a global model, but the forecast misalignment was frequent; the second was the emergence of a mesoscale model, and the deviation was improved; and the third was the continuous maturity of the application of objective models. In the face of technological updates, he said that forecasters need to abandon resistance to the model and learn to adapt and use, but the technical ability of individuals is becoming more and more stringent, and the difficulty of forecasting work is rising from another perspective.
Dong Quan believes that in the future, big data and artificial intelligence will be the next round of impact on forecasting technology. In this case, the forecaster needs to continuously improve his ability to become a "miscellaneous family" who will look for the "truth" from a thousand clues. At the same time, don't be afraid of failure, get up from where you fall, and the real growth of forecasters must be obtained in the process of continuous failure.
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