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<h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" data-track="13" > CITIC Prudential's forward-looking advantage</h1>
<h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" data-track="14" > fund element</h1>
Fund code: 013610.
Fund type: partial stock hybrid type, stock assets are not less than 60%.
Performance benchmark: CSI 800 Index Yield *60% + Hang Seng Index Yield *20% + China Bond Composite Wealth (Gross) Index Yield *20%
Fundraising ceiling: The Fund has a ceiling of $8 billion.
Fund company: CITIC Prudential Fund, with a total scale of more than 120 billion yuan. Among them, the total management scale of equity and hybrid funds is nearly 50 billion yuan, and the management scale is not small.
Fund Manager: The fund manager of the Fund is Mr. Wang Rui, who has 12 years of experience in the securities industry and more than 6 years of experience in fund manager management, and currently manages 6 funds with a total management scale of 11.7 billion yuan.
Representative Fund: Mr. Wang Rui's longest-managed fund is Prudential Winning Select (550008.OF), which has a cumulative yield of 120.37% and an annualized yield of 13.03% since April 30, 2015. The performance in the medium and long term is relatively excellent. (Source: WIND, as of 2021.10.08)
Judging from the net value chart and annual performance, there are the following conclusions and judgments:
The fund can outperform the CSI 300 index for a long time;
The performance of the partial stock hybrid fund index is comparable, and there are mutual winners and losers in stages;
The retracement in 2018 is not small, and there is a high probability that there is no position timing;
The performance of 2017 is good, and there is a high probability of allocating a lot of value style positions;
This year's performance is good, and there is a high probability of configuring a lot of small-cap style positions;
For specific circumstances, we further verify from the characteristics of the position.
<h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" data-track="29" > position holdings</h1>
First, the fund's top ten heavy stocks are less than 50% all year round, which is a low concentration of shareholdings in horizontal comparison. However, vertically compared with himself, Mr. Wang Rui has increased from a center of 25% to 35% to a center of 35%-40%, and the concentration of shareholding has increased.
Second, in the early days of management, Mr. Wang Rui's turnover rate was relatively high, at 5-7 times / year, which is equivalent to changing positions once every 4 months or so. In recent years, his turnover rate has decreased, and it is currently around 3 times.
Third, the average holding period of the fund is 1.1 years, as can be seen from the position rising sun chart, the position is shorter than half a year, and the position of holding position for one year and holding position for more than one year accounts for almost one-third each, which indicates that the fund manager will adopt the core + satellite combination strategy, and we need to further look at the position and the fund manager interview.
Combined with the above three points, Mr. Wang Rui belongs to the "partial trading" player with low shareholding concentration and not long shareholding period.
Fourth, from the perspective of the asset allocation chart, Mr. Wang Rui will make a position change of about 20 points when the market falls.
Fifth, as we judged on the net value chart, from 2017 to 2019, Mr. Wang Rui allocated a larger proportion of value style positions. After this, all switched to the growth style, and a larger proportion of the small plate growth style was configured.
Combined with the above two points, Mr. Wang Rui belongs to the "erratic" player who will do staged position timing + will do a larger style selection.
Sixth, judging from the data on the proportion of positions in the first three major industries, Mr. Wang Rui has always maintained a relatively scattered industry position.
As of the semi-annual report, the top three holding industries are: electrical equipment, computers and chemicals, accounting for a total of 45.74%.
Seventh, let's take a look at the fund's interim operation analysis and the latest position.
In the first half of 2021, the domestic A-share market as a whole showed a structural market, and the money-making effect was significantly divergent compared with 20 years, and there were also relatively large changes in the structural direction. At the beginning of the year, the valuation of White Horse consumption rose rapidly, and after the holiday, due to the rapid upward adjustment of the US Treasury bond interest rate, the index retracement was huge, and the overall performance of the entire quarter, whether it was the index or the fund, was similar to a roller coaster market, but the cyclical stocks represented by coal, steel, and chemical industry in the first quarter performed relatively well, with obvious excess returns. After experiencing a sharp rise and fall in the first quarter, the A-share market as a whole was in a process of shock and rebound in the second quarter. After May, the overall domestic liquidity environment is better than the market's pessimistic expectations, and the long-term Treasury interest rate in the United States has also declined, although the domestic PPI increase in the middle process has exceeded the previous expectation, but it has not affected the rapid improvement of the overall risk appetite of the A-share market. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 4.3 percent in the second quarter, the ChiNext Index rose 26 percent in a single quarter, and the ChiNext Index rose 17 percent since the beginning of the year on June 30, significantly outpacing other major indices.
In terms of market structure, the market in the second quarter is more divergent than in the past few quarters, the phenomenon of white horses hugging has obvious signs of loosening, while the growth technology at the bottom and some theme stocks are very active, and the money-making effect of the whole market is gradually improving. Electric vehicles, medical beauty, photovoltaics, semiconductors are the stronger performance of the second quarter of the industry, many stocks at the bottom to achieve more than double the increase; thematically, Hongmeng, carbon neutrality also has a stage of active, but not too sustained.
A more detailed introduction to the differentiated market situation in the first half of the year.
We judge that china's economy will be in a weak recovery in the next few quarters, and although the process of global economic recovery has been disturbed by the mutated virus, the general direction has not changed. Based on the assumption of weak recovery, we believe that the next monetary environment is still a state where margins are tighter and not too tight, and the corresponding overall equity market will also be a range-bound situation, and in the process of index shocks, the opportunities for industries and individual stocks will still be more active, which is a more favorable stage for active management. In our investment strategy, we try to minimize the dependence on macro judgment, reduce excessive attention to short-term market fluctuations, and insist on building a portfolio from the perspective of mesoscopic industry comparison and bottom-up stock selection, hoping to find some stocks with the potential to double in three years to layout and hold.
The future market is predicted: range oscillation.
In the direction, from the perspective of global demand resonance, low penetration rate increase, domestic substitution, etc., we selected several fields such as electric vehicles, intelligence, medical treatment, semiconductors, new materials, cloud computing, etc. for research and configuration, hoping to enjoy the dividends brought by the industry's high boom cycle. In the face of the problem of excessive valuation of some high-quality track companies, we will adopt the principle of relative caution, select the varieties with relatively reasonable valuations for allocation, take profits in a timely manner, and strive to reduce the volatility of the portfolio.
Judging from Mr. Wang Rui's past quarterly reports, he is currently a more typical investment framework for selecting high-prosperity industries with mesoscopic industry comparisons, and this time in the report, the portfolio of heavy stocks is also relatively large, and six of the ten have been replaced.
Among them, the semiconductor industry holds shares in Jingsheng Electromechanical and Zhonghuan. The new energy vehicle industry chain holds Desay SV and Tianci Materials. In addition, it also holds xinhecheng in the API sector, international medicine in the hospital sector, Hang Seng Electronics in the computer sector, Oriental Wealth in the brokerage sector, and Hongfa shares in the transformer industry, etc., which are also very scattered as a whole.
In addition, it is worth noting that some of the targets in the portfolio are not good purely from the quality point of view, such as international medicine, which is a loss-making stock itself, and the business has just been transformed, and it has recently fallen more fiercely. Another point is that the overall valuation level of the portfolio has improved significantly in the last two years.
At present, the portfolio as a whole is in a state of low industry concentration + high level of portfolio valuation quantile.
<h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" data-track="50" > investment philosophy and investment framework</h1>
In an interview, Mr. Wang Rui expressed his belief in one of the principles that prices fluctuate around value, and eventually the price is to return to value. He believes that the value of capital markets is pricing, not looking for good companies.
Here we have to mention the investment strategy adopted by Mr. Wang Rui - mesoscopic industry comparison. He mentioned that he would rank the industry by three factors: space, prosperity and valuation. He further said he would give a large weight to the valuation.
Mr. Wang Rui believes that there are three stages in investment methodology, and he hopes to gradually iterate to the high-order state of buy and forget.
Therefore, he mentioned that the purpose of his current mesoscopic industry comparison is to not make industry comparisons in the future. Very interesting path and logic.
For the investment targets that he expects to find, Mr. Wang Rui said that he will price the company in a three-year time dimension, hoping to tap the opportunity to double in three years.
For the mesoscopic industry comparison, Mr. Wang Rui said that he is still iterating, in the early stage of investment, he will do the whole market industry comparison, but he found that it is more tiring, sustainability is not enough.
This is also a point that I am more concerned about the mesoscopic industry, many young fund managers will do this, physical strength, energy may still be able to keep up, plus the company's investment and research support is enough, then can do a few years, such as our analysis of yesterday's TEDA Manulife Fund Wang Peng, but people to middle age, marriage and children, there are old and small, the burden is getting heavier and heavier, energy is becoming more and more scarce, can not be so desperate, it is really doubtful.
Mr. Wang Rui said that he has also been doing subtraction in recent years, basically focusing on TMT, new energy, consumer building materials, food and beverage, and pharmaceutical industries.
This interview is very exciting, and it is recommended that you search for "CITIC Prudential Fund Wang Rui: Aiming for 3-year Doubling, Looking for Protected Growth Stocks" for more in-depth reading.
<h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" data-track="60" > one-sentence review</h1>
Mr. Wang Rui is currently using the framework of mesoscopic industry comparison to make investments, but he also has a deep understanding of the drawbacks of this investment framework, and has a higher pursuit and goal, and he hopes that he can have the ability and conditions to evolve to the state of buy and forget in the future.
Purely from the perspective of Mr. Wang Rui's current investment framework and position characteristics, I may not include him in our investment pool, but this in-depth interview is actually a plus, let me feel that he is very real, look at the problem more comprehensively, will pay attention to the advantages and disadvantages of a framework, but also pay attention to the actual conditions, there are trade-offs. So I'll include him in the observation pool for deeper tracking.
Compared with the old fund, this new fund has increased the allocation of Hong Kong stocks, and the others are not much different. It is worth paying attention to for investors who trust Mr. Wang Rui and need to allocate growth-style assets.
Tags: CITIC Prudential Fund, Wang Rui, one-sentence comments, worth buying less, industry prosperity comparison
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Risk Warning: The fund is risky and the investment needs to be cautious. This article is not recommended by the fund, and the views and scores in this article are not used as the basis for trading, and are for reference only. The views expressed herein are solely those of individuals and are not intended to be a commitment to investment decisions, and the information in the articles is derived from publicly available sources, and the authors of this article make no warranty as to the accuracy and completeness of such information. The content and opinions in this article are based on the results of an analysis of historical data and there is no guarantee that the contents and opinions contained will not change in the future. This article is for informational purposes only and in no event shall the information contained herein or the opinions expressed herein constitute investment advice to any person.
Not worth buying: 0% of the position in the corresponding asset class, not recommended to exceed 5%.
It is worth buying less: the proportion of positions in the corresponding asset class is 5%-10%, and it is not recommended to exceed 15%.
Worth buying: 10%-15% of the positions in the corresponding asset class, not recommended to exceed 20%.
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