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As the military industry continues to heat up, more and more people are eager to try and want to catch a military car.
Before we wrote about E Fangda National Defense Military Industry and Boshi Military Industry theme, many small partners look for small assistant feedback and also want to see Huaxia Xinghe mixed.
Today, I will meet you to take an in-depth evaluation of The Huaxia Xinghe Mix (Code: 519918) managed by Li Yan.
This fund is still very interesting, before buying more new energy, the second quarter suddenly turned into a military fund.
In the end, is Li Yan's industry rotation doing well, or will he only chase hot spots?
Can Huaxia Xinghe Mix be bought?
After reading the article, you have a number in mind
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Founded in 2014, Li Yan has only taken over management since June 2020, and this is the only fund he manages.
Although the management time is only one year, during his management period, the fund has generated a return of 122.82%, which is a very good result.
The total share of the fund has not been large, at 251 million in the second quarter, about 40 million more than in the first quarter.
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(1) Income display
Since its inception, the return of the fund is 317.87%, from the beginning of its establishment to before Li Yan took over, for 6 years it has not outperformed the CSI 300!
During Li Yan's management period, the fund rose by 126.67%, and the CSI 300 rose by 21.64% in the same period, a difference of 6 times, at which time Huaxia Xinghe mixed began to raise its eyebrows.
Especially since the second quarter of this year, the fund's income has gone all the way up, and it has left the market far behind.
However, short-term performance cannot represent the overall quality of the fund, and everyone does not need to see it rise sharply in the short term
Let's take a closer look at the performance of funds in different periods.
(2) Bull-bear cycle comparison
2 rounds of full victory, after the Spring Festival this year to now, the market fell -15.58%, Huaxia Xinghe mixed rose 46.38%, equivalent to more than the market earned 60% more!
Let's look at the decline in the fund.
(3) Maximum drawdown (down)
The largest drawdown since the establishment of the fund was -48.62%, and the largest drawdown during Li Yan's management was -17.87%.
The retracement performance of the fund in the second quarter of this year was significantly better than that of the CSI 300, but the volatility was also quite large.
At the beginning of the article, it was mentioned that all the heavy stocks of the fund in the second quarter were replaced by the military industry, and the high concentration of the industry was also the reason for the large fluctuations.
Let's take a look at the fund's holdings.
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(1) Top 10 heavy stocks
Click on the image to enlarge it
In the second quarter, Huaxia Xinghe's mixed heavy stocks changed blood, from the previous new energy vehicles to the military industry.
For such a large degree of position adjustment, Li Yan also made an explanation in the quarterly report:
The meaning of this paragraph is that Li Yan feels that new energy has risen too fiercely, and the future growth may be weak, but he will continue to pay attention to this field.
Here a detailed analysis of the current situation and prospects of the military industry, the overall meaning is that Li Yan feels that the military industry is still engaged, especially in the aviation field, we have a big gap with Western countries, and the demand is strong.
Regarding the analysis of the military industry, we have also described it in the previous military theme fund evaluation article, and the small partners who have not yet seen it click on the following link to see Oh:
Fund Evaluation (72) E Fangda National Defense And Military Industry: How can the military industry make money by entering the market?
Fund Evaluation (74) Boshi Military Theme Stocks, Military Industry Outlets! Is it time to enter?
Therefore, almost all of the heavy stocks in Huaxia Xinghe's mix are stocks in the aerospace field, and we can compare them with the military industry fund written before:
Through comparison, it can be found that Huaxia Xinghe Mix is different from the other two military theme funds, almost ALL IN Aerospace, such a game is equivalent to industry concentration and re-concentration, high risk and high return.
Because Huaxia Xinghe mixed is only in the second quarter of the heavy position of the military industry, so the income comparison choice is the performance of the past three months, but the short-term performance has little reference value, and it is the real ability to make money for a long time.
(2) Position changes
Although the heavy stocks have changed blood, the position has hardly changed, and it is still maintained at more than 80%.
Although there is no big change in the position, the fund turnover rate is still quite high, and now the fund size is not large, which is convenient to operate, and there are more opportunities to make money through frequent repositioning and stock exchange.
So what is the source of Li Yan's income creation? Take a look at attribution analysis:
Li Yan's ability to select industries and trades is good, and with these two factors, the fund outperforms the performance benchmark by 90%.
However, the ability to select stocks is a little weaker, and the excess return created is -4.15%.
Overall, Li Yan is not brainlessly chasing hot spots, and every time the conversion industry is deliberate.
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Li Yan, who has a master's degree, joined Huaxia Fund in 2013, from a researcher to an assistant fund manager, and became a fund manager in 2020, which can be said to be a new generation of fund managers independently cultivated by Huaxia Fund.
Li Yan has not been a fund manager for a long time, and only Huaxia Xinghe hybrid fund is managed, so we understand Li Yan's investment framework and logic through this fund.
In terms of investment strategy, Li Yan will conduct a moderate left-side transaction, that is, to lay out before the outlet comes, which we have verified through attribution analysis, and Li Yan's choice of industry has indeed earned a lot of excess returns, proving that he has no problem controlling the industry
In choosing an industry, Li Yan values the fundamentals of the industry.
Take the second quarter of the repositioning, Li Yan will not leave new energy, that is, feel that the fundamentals of new energy will change, such as the price will return to the average, China's new energy technology leadership will shrink.
Heavy warehouse military industry is also based on fundamental judgment, which can be roughly divided into four parts:
1. The growth rate of national defense forces and economic construction does not match;
2. Take history as a mirror and discover the shortcomings of the Chinese Air Force;
3. The military and civilian demand of the aviation industry has a broad prospect;
4. The business model of military enterprises that emphasize research and development and light production has changed.
Li Yan's research and analysis of the military industry, from learning history to investigating enterprises to studying supply and demand, is really thorough enough, giving Manager Li a thumbs up for his dedication
For the future, Li Yan made an outlook in the mid-year report:
First of all, he will still focus on investment in the military aircraft manufacturing industry, and will continue to explore opportunities in the three major areas of consumption, new energy and high-end manufacturing.
Let's take a look at Li Yan's second quarterly newspaper interpretation:
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Huaxia Fund is one of the "old ten" in China, and the current management scale will soon exceed one trillion, and the development of these years is very good
The major shareholder is CITIC Securities, and there are also foreign-funded enterprises that have invested in the shares, and the investment and research advantages of China and the West can be enjoyed.
Huaxia's other funds we have also written a lot, interested partners click on the following link to read Oh:
Fund Evaluation (75) Huaxia Energy Innovation, 323% return in the past 2 years, a representative work of energy brother
Fund evaluation (13-1000) | the king of dividends Huaxia return mix, the cumulative dividend of more than 14.6 billion
Fund Evaluation (1000-60) Huaxia Large-Cap Selection, 4055% Return Legendary Fund, Can It Be Brilliant Again
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Although the current heavy position in the military industry sector, it cannot be said that Huaxia Xinghe Mix is a military theme fund, and in the future, Li Yan is likely to carry out a large-scale stock swap according to his judgment of the market.
Li Yan's ability to pick tracks is indeed outstanding, and Huaxia Xinghe Mix has created a beautiful revenue curve in the last year by constantly adjusting the track.
However, it must be noted that the size of the fund is also relatively easy to carry out large-scale repositioning, and the current routine of rushing and punching is still useful, but in the future, as the scale of the fund increases, this set of playing methods may not be so effective.
In short, the small partners who are optimistic about the military industry can pay attention to Huaxia Xinghe mixing, but if you want to stay with the military industry, it is recommended to choose a military theme fund, Huaxia Xinghe mixing may become a heavy new energy, liquor, science and technology fund again.
Small partners who like the industry rotation can follow Li Yan for a long time, and Li Yan's vision is still very accurate at present
Collection of previous articles, recommended collection:
Pay attention to @ money base, the first time to understand the fund change!
Finally, I would like to emphasize to you:
Ji Jie only does fund evaluation, does not constitute a buying recommendation, if there is a fund to look at, to consider according to their own target returns and bearable risks, so as not to be momentarily overwhelmed by the returns to make a wrong decision.
Investment itself is a serious and well-thought-out decision to make, never blindly follow the trend of investment, investment on the road only have a set of their own ideas, ideas, will not easily get lost ~ ~
Our original intention of doing fund evaluation is to help more people learn how to invest in funds, how to distinguish whether the fund is suitable for themselves, rather than directly giving purchase advice, Ji Jie sincerely hopes that everyone can buy the most desired base!