On September 8, Premier Li Keqiang of the State Council presided over the executive meeting of the State Council, deployed in some cities to carry out pilot business environment innovation, supported local deepening reforms to be the first to try, and made greater efforts to benefit enterprises and the people; and passed the "Implementation Measures for the Commitment System of Securities and Futures Administrative Law Enforcement Parties (Draft)".
The meeting pointed out that it is necessary to implement the deployment of the Party Central Committee and the State Council, adhere to the optimization of the business environment as an important starting point for stimulating the vitality of market players and social creativity, and promoting high-quality development, stabilize market expectations, and maintain stable economic operation. The meeting decided that while implementing the Regulations on Optimizing the Business Environment and promoting the creation of a market-oriented and law-based international business environment throughout the country, it would select six cities with a large number of market entities in Beijing, Shanghai, Chongqing, Hangzhou, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen, focus on the concerns of market entities and the masses, benchmark the international advanced level, further deepen the reform of "decentralization and management of services", and carry out pilot business environment innovation. The first is to further break down regional divisions and local protection, and promote the construction of a unified, open, competitive and orderly market system. Abolish unreasonable restrictions on cross-regional operations of enterprises. Break down hidden barriers to foreign enterprises in areas such as government procurement. Promote cross-regional mutual recognition and verification of 7 types of passenger and cargo transportation electronic certificates. The second is to further facilitate the entry and exit of market entities. At the same time as issuing physical licenses, electronic business licenses are issued simultaneously to facilitate enterprises to handle affairs online. Streamline bank account opening procedures and compress account opening time. Promote the "integration of multiple reports" in annual reports such as market supervision, social security, and taxation. Explore access standards that adapt to the development of new formats and new models. After the bankruptcy case is accepted, the bankruptcy administrator is allowed to inquire into the information of the bankrupt enterprise held by the relevant institutions in accordance with the law, and there is no need to go through the formalities for understanding the sealing when disposing of the seized property. The third is to improve the convenience of investment and construction. Before the land is supplied, the government department will carry out a package assessment of geological hazards and soil and water conservation to strengthen responsibility. After the enterprise obtains the land, it can start construction without repeated demonstration. For construction permits for municipal access projects such as water, electricity, and heating, implement notification commitment management and online parallel processing. The fourth is to enhance the level of opening up to the outside world. Promote the network verification of relevant documents with the ports of some important trading partners. Simplify the commercial registration procedures for Hong Kong and Macao investors. Support the development of bonded refueling business for international voyage ships. The fifth is to innovate and improve supervision. A punitive compensation system is implemented in areas related to the life and health of the people, such as food, medicine, vaccines, and safety. Complete long-term mechanisms to curb arbitrary collection of fees, fines, and apportionment. Correct intermediary institutions' monopolistic operations, compulsory services, and other such behaviors, clean up and cancel the differentiated treatment of enterprises in the acquisition of qualifications, bidding and bidding, and protection of rights and interests, and maintain fair competition. The sixth is to optimize the services of enterprises. Establish a compensation and relief mechanism for damage to the legitimate interests of enterprises due to policy changes, planning adjustments, etc. Improve the unified registration system for movable property and rights security. Accelerate the breaking of information islands, expand the scope of interconnection and data sharing between departments and local systems, promote the solution of the problem of repeated submission of materials by market entities, and promote more matters to be handled online and at one time.
In order to improve the basic system of the capital market, improve the efficiency of supervision, and better protect the legitimate rights and interests of investors, the meeting adopted the "Implementation Measures for the Commitment System of Securities and Futures Administrative Law Enforcement Parties (Draft)". The draft is linked to the Securities Law and other relevant provisions, stipulating that administrative law enforcement parties undertake to take measures such as correcting suspected illegal acts and compensating investors for losses, implement joint disciplinary action against parties who do not perform their commitments, maintain market order, and promptly and reasonably compensate investors for their losses in accordance with laws and regulations.
It is understood that the "Measures for the Implementation of the Commitment System for Parties to Securities and Futures Administrative Law Enforcement (Draft)" is linked to the Securities Law and other relevant provisions, and stipulates that the parties to administrative law enforcement undertake to take measures such as correcting suspected illegal acts and compensating investors for losses, and implement joint disciplinary action against parties who do not perform their commitments, maintain market order, and promptly and reasonably compensate investors for their losses in accordance with laws and regulations.
The Central Propaganda Department interviewed Tencent, NetEase and other game platforms
According to Xinhua News Agency, on September 8, relevant responsible persons of the Central Propaganda Department and the State Press and Publication Administration, together with the Central Cyberspace Administration, the Ministry of Culture and Tourism, and other departments, interviewed Key online game enterprises such as Tencent and NetEase on game account rental and sales platforms and game live broadcasting platforms.
The interview stressed that all online game enterprises and platforms should strictly implement the requirements of the notice, implement the time limit for providing online games to minors to the letter, and must not provide online game account rental and sales transaction services to minors in any form.
It is necessary to strengthen the review and control of online game content, strictly prohibit illegal and illegal content such as wrong value orientation, obscene pornography, and bloody terror, and resolutely resist bad cultures such as money worship, "mother's cannon", and "beauty".
It is necessary to consciously resist unfair competition, prevent excessive concentration or even monopoly, and focus on promoting scientific and technological innovation and better meeting the new expectations of the people's spiritual and cultural life.
It is necessary to strengthen the control of "kryptonite", put an end to unauthorized changes in game content, illegal operation of games and other behaviors, resolutely curb the "only money" and "only traffic" and other erroneous tendencies, and make up our minds to change various rules and gameplay designs that induce players to indulge.
It is necessary to strictly manage the promotion and promotion of games, standardize and restrict celebrity endorsement game advertisements, and must not provide promotion channels for illegal games. It is necessary to strengthen the management of live game broadcasting, and prohibit the occurrence of high-value tips and minors' tips.
In this regard, Tencent responded late at night that it will conscientiously study the spirit of the interview and strictly implement the relevant norms and requirements for minors to prevent addiction under the guidance of relevant competent departments.
NetEase will conscientiously study and implement the spirit of the interview, strictly implement the relevant regulations and requirements of the regulatory authorities for minors to prevent addiction, further strengthen the review and management of game content, adhere to the correct value orientation, and through continuous technological innovation, launch more well-made and thoughtful original products, effectively guide minors' healthy games, and promote the continuous improvement of the game ecology.
After the Central Propaganda Department and the State Press and Publication Administration interviewed Tencent, NetEase and other game companies and platforms, game stocks fell together, NetEase closed down more than 5%, Tencent ADR fell nearly 3%, and Bilibili, which also operates online games, fell more than 5%.
Shaanxi Yulin Coal Trading Center was investigated
According to the Operation Bureau of the National Development and Reform Commission, after monitoring the release of false information on coal prices by the Yulin Coal Trading Center, the National Development and Reform Commission and the Shaanxi Provincial Development and Reform Commission immediately instructed Yulin City to conduct an investigation, and Yulin City, Shaanxi Province, set up a special investigation team for public opinion on coal price increases, conducted special investigation and verification of the contents contained therein, and interviewed the main responsible persons of Yulin Coal Trading Center Co., Ltd.
After verification, the information released by Yulin Coal Trading Center Co., Ltd. is inconsistent with the actual situation, and the company has not obtained an Internet news information license, and does not have the right to collect, edit and publish news information. The investigation team has ordered the company to stop updating and publishing news information about coal prices and market operations, and temporarily shut down the 2 public accounts operated by the company. At the same time, the Yulin Coal Trading Center has also made a commitment not to release relevant information on the operation of the coal market through any channel in the future.
The National Development and Reform Commission pointed out that all relevant enterprises, institutions and self-media should take the initiative to assume social responsibility, put an end to malicious speculation on coal prices, price gouging, hoarding and other behaviors, and consciously maintain the stability of the coal market. The National Development and Reform Commission will continue to strengthen information monitoring, work with relevant departments to severely crack down on such violations of laws and regulations, and earnestly do a good job in ensuring the supply and price stability of coal to ensure the smooth and orderly operation of the market.
Commodity futures reversal! "Aluminum" reached a new high
Last night, US natural gas futures, international oil prices and London aluminum prices all showed a major reversal from yesterday's trend.
U.S. gasoline and natural gas futures both rebounded. NYMEX October natural gas futures closed up 7.6% at $4.1914/MMBtu, the highest closing average for the contract since February 2014; natural gas futures for delivery in January next year for the first time in history to break through the integer level of $5/MMBTU.
Yesterday, U.S. oil closed down 1.35% to a new weekly low and the biggest decline. At the close of the morning, WTI October crude oil futures closed up 1.39% at $69.30 / barrel, out of tuesday's trough since August 26, bidding farewell to two consecutive declines; Brent November crude oil futures closed up 1.27% at $72.60 / barrel, ending a three-day streak of declines, and U.S. oil all erased Tuesday's losses.
The LME aluminum staple rose as high as 1.6% to $2,809.75/mt on Wednesday, breaking through the $2,800/mt mark, the highest in 13 years since 2008 and rebounding about 90% from the low at the peak of the epidemic in April last year. Aluminum also hit a more than thirteen-year high in the inner session, breaking through the highest point of 22,000 yuan / ton in the intraday to 22,075 yuan / ton on Wednesday, hitting a new high since 2006. As of the close of trading on September 7, the cumulative increase of the Shanghai Aluminum Futures Index in 2021 reached 41.07%, and the CRB Commodity Index, which tracks major international commodities, was reported at 220.11 in the same period, and the index rose by 31.18% during the year, while the aluminum price performance in the same period was significantly higher than the average increase in domestic and foreign commodity markets.
"Since the beginning of this year, the price trend of non-ferrous metals such as aluminum has been strong, even in the context of the state's increased regulation and control in the second half of the year, the financial investment preferences are still more favorable to non-ferrous metals, and the control measures such as dumping have only eased the rate and rhythm of the rise, and won time and space for small and medium-sized enterprises in the downstream of the industrial chain, but it is difficult to reverse the market supply and demand expectations to rise in the downward trend." Gu Fengda, head of the research and consulting department of Guosen Futures, said.
"The core logic of the rise in aluminum prices is still the disturbance of the fundamental supply side." Hu Pan, a nonferrous researcher at Haitong Futures, told reporters that the supply-side structural reform in 2017 effectively curbed the disorderly expansion of electrolytic aluminum production capacity, and the policy limit formed a compliant production capacity ceiling of 45 million tons of electrolytic aluminum in China, while the long-term strategy of carbon neutrality and carbon peaking also formed a greater restriction on the electrolytic aluminum industry with high energy consumption. In the first half of the year, the double control of energy consumption in Inner Mongolia and yunnan due to dry water period electricity affected about 1.38 million tons of production capacity, after entering the flood season immediately after the peak of electricity consumption came, the power curtailment in Yunnan continued, the resumption of production and new production capacity continued to be delayed, while the scope of power curtailment was expanded to Guangxi, Guizhou and other places, superimposed on the flood disaster in Henan affected the local part of the electrolytic aluminum production capacity shutdown, and the production reduction is expected to expand again. In mid-August, the National Development and Reform Commission released the completion of the dual control of energy consumption, Xinjiang, Guangxi, Ningxia and other places began to strengthen the implementation of the dual control policy of energy consumption, Xinjiang and Guangxi currently have different degrees of pressure production expectations, as of now the statistical reduction capacity has exceeded 2 million tons, once again pushing up the price of aluminum.
Zhan Dapeng, director of non-ferrous metals at Everbright Futures, told reporters that although carbon neutral factors run through the whole year, the trend of aluminum this year in the first half of the year and the second half of the year is still slightly different. In the first half of the year, there are more macro factors, with the continuous recovery of the US economy and the arrival of China's peak season, the market is convinced of the high inflation expectations during the year, aluminum ushered in the first wave of rapid rise with copper, and finally in May attracted the policy of ensuring supply and stable price regulation policy, of course, the shadow of inner Mongolia energy dual control also runs through it; after June, electrolytic aluminum smelting due to power shortage led to mandatory power curtailment policy, and there is an expectation of expanding the scale of production restriction and infinite extension, according to statistics, the peak period involves the annual production capacity of about 2 million tons Even if the storage is thrown, it is difficult to hide the supply gap, so the main factor in the increase since the second half of the year is the supply-side impact of the production limit.
"From the perspective of market fundamentals, in the face of the continuous increase of China's regulatory policies in the second half of the year, the style of the financial market has been frequently switched, but the resilience and upward elasticity of non-ferrous metals in turbulent times have been highlighted, because the current extremely low global extremely low level of non-ferrous metals and the tight supply elasticity are difficult to fully reverse due to dumping." Gu Fengda said that as far as the aluminum market is concerned, since the second half of the year, due to the double reduction policy of china's energy consumption in various places, including further production restrictions and power curtailment in the main aluminum-producing areas such as Xinjiang and Guangxi, the market supply shortage has been exacerbated, while the demand side has remained stable, even in the summer traditional consumption off-season, there has not been a large accumulation of inventory, and in the face of the traditional consumption season of Jinjiuyinshi, it is expected that under the premise of no macro system risk, the price of non-ferrous metals such as aluminum has strong structural support.
The reporter noted that the recent military coup d'état in Guinea, Africa, the main global bauxite producing area, the supply disturbance of resource land may trigger the "butterfly effect", highlighting the fragility of the supply chain under the global uneven recovery, and the world's major economies will inevitably increase the competition for resources and strategic reserves for the varieties of real economy necessities and emerging industries in order to maintain the security of industrial economic supply and industrial competitive advantage, further stimulating the sustained price increase momentum of global resource products. The imbalance between supply and demand brought about by the imported inflation of domestic commodities and the transformation of industrial upgrading appears at the same time, which is an important driving force to promote the price of non-ferrous metals such as aluminum.
For the future market, Hu Pan believes that the uncertainty of supply is still large, the power curtailment policy in September and October will be relaxed with the ease of power tension, but the cost of electrolytic cell restart is higher, the resumption of production and new production is slow, and the pressure of energy consumption dual control will still suppress the release of production capacity, the supply is difficult to increase significantly, and the absolute level of inventory will continue to support aluminum prices. The traditional peak season of demand is likely to show a seasonal rebound, but there is a poor price transmission in the downstream, and the performance of domestic macro data is weak, the overseas epidemic situation is still unstable, and the demand may not be as expected. In addition, the recent rapid rise in aluminum prices has aroused the attention of relevant departments, and the determination of high-level supply and price stability cannot be ignored, and the follow-up does not rule out the emergence of regulations such as increasing the dumping of reserves. Therefore, it is expected that the high volatility of aluminum prices in the future will intensify, and the overall high oscillation will be maintained, and the aluminum price will still be optimistic in the medium and long term, but it is not recommended to chase higher in the short term. It is necessary to pay close attention to the progress of the coup in Guinea, the second is the performance of the downstream demand season, whether the inventory continues to go to the warehouse smoothly; the third is the change of the policy of power rationing and energy consumption dual control, and the fourth is whether there are further measures to ensure supply and stabilize prices.
"In the strict production restriction environment, aluminum prices are easy to rise and difficult to fall, but the rapid rise in aluminum prices will also cause downstream reactions and policy regulation expectations, so while being relatively optimistic, it is advisable to be cautious about controversial price operations." Zhan Dapeng said.
Gu Fengda believes that from an investment point of view, short-term aluminum prices break through the important resistance near 21,000 yuan / ton after opening up the upper space, more up or towards the vicinity of 23,000 yuan / ton, but need to be vigilant about the impact of policy expectations at sensitive time points, it is recommended that related industries strengthen production profit hedging operations, ordinary institutions and speculators can see more and move less, pay attention to control position control risks.
Precious metals "diving", where will the future market go?
On Tuesday night, outer-cap gold was hit hard in the early part of the US session, and comex gold futures traded more than $2 billion in minutes, and the price fell below the $1800/oz mark. Despite the recent slowdown in recovery from economic data such as employment and inflation in the United States, which has been dragged down by the repeated outbreak of the mutated virus, the Fed's expectations of tightening monetary policy in advance have weakened, and the maximum bearish pressure on gold has eased, so it has continued to rebound to a stage high since mid-August. "In the context of improving economic conditions, the market's expectations for the Fed to start reducing its bond purchases during the year have been relatively sufficient, but the dollar and US Treasury yields have remained strong, and speculative funds have chosen to chase assets with higher short-term returns and sell safe-haven assets, which has suppressed gold prices." Recently, the RMB exchange rate has remained stable, and domestic gold and silver futures have also declined due to the drag of the trend of the outer market, and the trend of the inner and outer disks has remained basically the same. Ye Qianning, a precious metals researcher at GF Futures, said.
"The sudden dive in precious metals is mainly related to the strong rebound of the US dollar, the excessive pessimism of the market for non-farm data in the early stage has weakened, and gold has chased long positions to stop losses and leave the market." Hu Yue, a precious metals researcher at Jinxin Futures, said that at the same time, the speech of Sanders, the most "hawkish" official of the Bank of England, boosted the dollar index upwards. Sanders said the idea of raising interest rates next year was the right one if the UK economy was in line with expectations. Affected by this, the dollar index quickly surged from 92 to 92.6, the GBPUSD fell from around 1.378 to 1.376; the ten-year US Treasury yield rose rapidly from 1.33% to 1.38%, the 10-year TIPS yield rose from -1.01% to -0.98%, and the precious metal price plunged sharply.
The reporter learned in the interview that the non-farm data released on Friday was unexpectedly cold, adding only 235,000 people, while the market expected 700,000-800,000 people, gold bulls took this opportunity to push up the gold price. Although the non-farm data is more pessimistic, the market's expectations for the subsequent reduction of debt purchases have not changed much, so gold has given back the gains brought by non-agricultural before, the bull stop loss plate has stepped on, and the precious metal has fallen sharply.
"Compared with the expectations of monetary policy in the United Kingdom and the United States, except for the timing or occurrence of interest rate hikes, the outlook for the economy and inflation is more consistent. BoE Governor Sanders thinks it's reasonable for interest rates to rise next year, while the Fed's current expectation of a rate hike in September 2022 is only around 20%. The gap in expectations for the time point of the rate hike also contributed to the strengthening of the dollar index. Hu Yue said.
Li Chenyang, senior researcher of Ping An Futures Commodity Strategy, said that due to the dovish statement of Fed Chairman Powell at the annual meeting of the global central bank, the number of new non-farm jobs in the United States in August was significantly less than expected, and the slowdown in the growth rate of PMI in the United States in August, the market's expected pace of the Fed to reduce QE slowed down, and the dollar index weakened. However, the impact of the us economic recovery remains solid and the expectation that the Federal Reserve will shrink its bond purchases during the year, gold prices remain under pressure in the medium term. The recent gold ETF has continued to flow out, falling for 5 consecutive weeks, or reflects the current limited room for gold price rebound.
"In the pattern of the global economy recovering, the market has a higher risk appetite for funds chasing risk assets, and the holding of precious metal ETFs continues to remain at a low level during the year, reflecting that the main funds in the market are still in a wait-and-see state." Ye Qianning said that the US economic data is not performing well, the Federal Reserve in September will not announce the reduction of the scale of bond purchases, in the context of stagflation in the policy can be less operational space, so the possibility of a sharp decline in precious metals is smaller, if the economic data continues to deteriorate Gold and silver prices will be expected to break through the recent fluctuation range, the later need to continue to pay attention to important data and the timing of the conference release, you can take advantage of the lows to do more.
For the future market of precious metals, Hu Yue believes that the probability of major changes in us monetary and fiscal policies in the short term is low. Although there are repeated signs of the epidemic in the United States, we believe that the probability of further deterioration is low, and the growth rate of economic fundamentals is slowing, but it will not be a sharp decline. In this context, precious metals will still be dominated by low oscillations. In the long run, the time of the taper in the year is likely to appear in the fourth quarter, and with the official landing of the taper, the precious metal will bottom out and rebound.
Li Chenyang believes that the US economy continues to recover, employment continues to improve, and it is difficult to further ease monetary policy. It is still very likely that the reduction of bond purchases will be announced at the November interest rate meeting, the inflection point of monetary policy has arrived, and the price of gold and silver will remain under pressure in the medium and long term. With the U.S. ending unemployment benefits on September 6 and millions of Americans losing $300 a week in unemployment benefits, the September employment data is critical and requires investors' continued attention.
This article originated from Futures Daily