Today I hedged again, but compared to medical liquor I seem to be OK? Since the last collection of medicine after the emergence of a large drawdown I have reduced all the medicine, has not paid attention to more than half a year, I will not pay attention to the future, the future will continue to focus on high-end manufacturing. No joke to talk about the real thing today, promise me, read the article and then leave a comment.
The first thing I would like to make is:
I don't have the ability to see the direction and sector to focus on in the next few years, and I also learned the research released by the fund manager combined with the direction of the public fund rebalancing in the 3rd quarter, which makes me feel that what he said is still very worthy of our learning.
He is the top 10 manager of the fund manager index this year, the following is not advertising, or that sentence My goal is to use the ability of a professional fund manager to help me determine the main direction of my investment in the next few years.
1. The first direction: carbon peaking and carbon neutrality.
Among them, Manager Han divided the first general direction into 4 branches: traditional energy and high-energy-consuming traditional industries, new energy industries, power system fields, energy-saving and consumption-reducing new materials and new technologies.
The first branch is related to traditional energy and high energy consumption, which he said that in the early stage of the energy transition, the demand for traditional energy will continue to grow while the supply will be greatly limited. Traditional high-energy-consuming industries will be significantly suppressed due to the dual-carbon target on the supply side, and some traditional industries are linked to new energy in the downstream, and both supply and demand have strong support.
As mentioned before, one of the influencing factors of stock volatility is the imbalance between supply and demand. When I look at the ranking of changes in the positions of public funds in the third quarter, it is determined that more funds have increased their holdings in traditional energy and electricity. Among them, electricity-related is mainly more Hong Kong stocks.
Here can also explain the main reason why Qu Yang went to the du power industry in the third quarter. But I found that Manager Qu looked more at the fundamentals of individual stocks and rarely made advance layouts, so every time there was a style switch, his position changes were larger, which I personally did not like.
The second branch is the new energy industry. Including photovoltaic wind power new energy vehicles, etc. It is mentioned that it is necessary to screen out the targets that can benefit from the changes in the competitive landscape and technological routes, and at the same time be vigilant against the targets that will be damaged.
Combined with the outlook of ABC New Energy Zhao Yi in the 3rd quarter, he is optimistic about the midstream of new energy in the 4th quarter and next year. There is not much to say about photovoltaics and wind power, and ZC is generally good news.
The third branch is the field of power systems. The continuous improvement of the proportion of new energy requires the transformation of the power grid in the direction of intelligence and flexibility, and the software and hardware of which have opportunities.
This specifically mentions the power-related, which is more in the Hong Kong stock side of the target. There is also an energy storage related one in it.
2. The second general direction is the midstream manufacturing industry:
Manager Han mentioned that this year's midstream industry has been squeezed by the sharp rise in the price of raw materials, sea freight and so on, and there are many production factors such as power curtailment, and there will be good investment opportunities after some factors are alleviated in the future.
This point everyone's careful friends over the weekend should find that although the performance of the photovoltaic leader in the 3rd quarter is less than expected, the market has given feedback close to a limit, the main reason is that in the case of the price increase of upstream raw materials, it can still continue to deliver in accordance with the previous contract, which greatly seizes a certain market share.
Then if the price of upstream raw materials falls next year, then next year's performance will most likely exceed expectations. This is also a specific case of stock speculation expectations.
3. The third general direction is the big financial industry:
Manager Han mentioned wealth management here in a passing mention, one of the logics of which is that the wealth of residents is put into the market in the form of funds, and the management scale of fund companies has risen steadily.
The major shareholders behind the major fund companies are basically the major securities companies. In addition, the securities sector is currently at a low level, so in the third quarter, I saw that many fund managers began to accelerate the layout of the securities sector.
The second logic is that I believe that everyone has seen the news before. It is to build a ** trading center in ** . It is also good for the securities sector.
But the financial sector generally only in the overall market will have a better performance, and the sustainability is not strong, if the heavy position into the current I think a bit du, volatility and drawdown is also quite large, general novices and small white or cautious as well.
4. Finally, let's take a look at Manager Han's position adjustment in Q3:
Manager Han's cutting-edge industry has performed well and ranked high this year. This row of excellent reminds me of Feng Mingyuan's pan-technology, and their 2 general directions are still quite good.
According to wind data, 60% of Manager Han's top ten positions in the third quarter were added, of which 30% were bought for the first time in the third quarter. The top ten positions accounted for 56.7% of the net value, biased towards concentrated holdings.
The focus is mainly on energy-based energy with unbalanced supply and demand, with a little optional consumption and finance. Through the direction of the 3rd quarter, it is mainly optimistic about the transformation of traditional energy and new energy. Through the range increase, it can be seen that Han Manager is still excellent in stock selection when the fund size reaches 13 billion.
What struck me was that the average price-to-earnings ratio of Dentons' new positions was much lower than the industry average for most of the time, at the end of Q3 it was 21.74 times, lower than the average of 53.61 times for the same kind. So I think the 3 directions that Manager Han said are still worthy of our attention, do you understand?
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The market side of the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.08% to close at 3544 points today. The Shenzhen Composite Index rose 0.17%, the ChiNext board fell 0.56%, and the net inflow of northbound funds today exceeded 700 million yuan, and the two cities traded a total of 1.2 trillion yuan.
(PS: now do not send real videos, you need to see the position of the six-pulse Excalibur combination can go to the daily fund search: Xiao Yuge's six-pulse Excalibur)
The proportion of the daily fund portfolio is better, and in the later period, my ZFB side also has to look at the same as the daily.
ZFB here today -0.2% or so, after the update this year -4.9% or so. The old rival is -0.3% today, and after the update, the CSI 300 this year is about -6.1%. It was not a big problem, and slowly threw the old opponent away.
Today there is no operation, wait for the 3 major blue-chip white horses to return to the blood I will continue to focus on high-end manufacturing.