Source: Global Times
[Global Times reporters Yue Linwei, Jiang Feng, Chen Xin] How much support and trust can the Japanese people gain from the kishida Fumio government that has just come to power? Since Shinzo Abe was elected prime minister for the second time, how will The political situation of the "LDP dominance" that has lasted for nearly nine years be judged by Japanese society? The 49th House of Representatives elections in Japan, held on October 31, will give answers to these questions. According to Japan's NHK television, as of 00:00 Beijing time on November 1, the jointly ruling Liberal Democratic Party and the Komeito Party won 261 of the 465 seats, reaching an "absolutely stable majority", and the continuation of the Kishida government is a foregone conclusion. However, Japan's Kyodo News Agency said that compared with the previous 276 seats in the House of Representatives, the number of seats in the LDP may decline. This means that the basis of Kishida's administration has been "shaken", and the opposition parties focusing on next summer's house election will continue the "fighting together" posture in the House of Representatives election and launch an offensive against the Kishida government.
Kishida Fumio infographic
The sense of crisis is strong, and Kishida is non-stop to assist in the election before the election
Elections to the House of Representatives of the Diet of Japan are held every four years. The election set a number of new records: from Kishida Fumio's inauguration as prime minister on October 4 to the announcement of the dissolution of the House of Representatives, only 10 days, from the official launch of the election to the voting, only 12 days, both of which set the shortest time in Japan after the end of World War II. In addition, there were 1,051 candidates, which is the smallest number of people participating in the house of representatives elections under Japan's current electoral system.
Japan's Kyodo News Agency said that the focus of the election campaign includes responding to the new crown pneumonia epidemic and how to narrow the gap between the rich and the poor in society. The Nihon Keizai Shimbun said that during the election, the government and opposition parties focused on economic topics such as "distribution" and "growth," but they did not come up with specific plans to solve the financial resources and carry out economic development.
On October 31, more than 46,000 polling stations were set up across Japan, and voting in most areas was from 7:00 to 20:00. On the same day, it was rainy in Tokyo, and the Global Times reporter visited a number of polling stations in the evening when the voting was about to end, and saw that there were still queues waiting at the entrances of some polling stations.
According to Japan's Asahi Shimbun, the ruling party has a strong sense of crisis this time. During the campaign, Kishida gave street lectures in 68 places in 24 prefectures, holding up his "Kishida Notebook" in each speech, emphasizing his "listening ability." Japanese media believe that this is what he hopes to show different characteristics from former prime ministers Shinzo Abe and Yoshihide Suga.
On October 30, the last day before the election, Kishida set off at 8:00 a.m. and ran to Tokyo, Gunma, Saitama and other places to solicit votes, and gave a total of nine street speeches, an average of 10 minutes per game. In a hoarse-sounding voice, he repeatedly stressed that "in order to protect everyone's life and work, the LDP has prepared large-scale economic countermeasures" and "we want voters to really feel the fruits of growth, let everyone have money to spend, and create a good cycle of growth and distribution."
Kishida arranged his last street speech in the square in front of Oicho Station in Shinagawa-ku, Tokyo. When the Global Times reporter arrived at the scene half an hour early, it was already overcrowded, and the Tokyo Metropolitan Police Department invested a lot of police forces to maintain order, and helicopters hovered over the sky from time to time. Compared with other political parties, the reporter felt the stronger appeal and mobilization of the LDP here.
On the same day, reporters also came to the street speech of Yukio Edano, the head of the opposition Party, the Constitutional Democratic Party. In the evening, Shinjuku Station is a time of high traffic. Here, Edano lashed out at the ruling party, saying its policies have led to widening disparities between the rich and the poor, failed response to the epidemic, and gender discrimination. His speech was infectious and provocative, attracting a large number of people to stop and watch, and the crowd erupted with applause and approval from time to time.
Although the election campaign lasted only 12 days, the political parties in the capital were "fighting". According to Japan's Jiji News Agency, 7 of the 9 political parties running for election announced the mileage of the party's first aid, and the total number of miles they combined was 85,000 kilometers, which is equivalent to "two circles around the earth". Among them, Kishida's election assistance mileage is 14,900 kilometers, second only to the 15,300 kilometers of National Democratic Party leader Yuichiro Tamaki.
Heavyweight members of the Liberal Democratic Party are mired in bitter fighting
The Japanese House of Representatives elections are held in parallel with small constituencies and proportional representation. Of the 465 seats, 289 are sub-constituencies, where voters vote directly on the candidates, with the largest number of votes elected; proportional representation of 176, voters vote for each political party and, depending on the number of votes, seats are allocated to each party in proportion.
Before the vote, the Japanese media had various predictions about the election results. According to the Nihon Keizai Shimbun, "uncertainty is high" — 40 percent of small constituencies are fiercely competitive; recent polls show that about 40 percent of voters said they had not yet decided who to vote for. Japan's Yomiuri Shimbun said the LDP wanted to "go over half alone" and the situation was delicate. Some 60 LDP candidates are likely to lose the battle and 104 candidates are on the brink of danger. Japan's Kyodo News Agency said that according to a poll at the end of October, the ruling coalition was expected to win an "absolutely stable majority" of 261 seats. Hong Kong's 01 website says this means that the ruling coalition can easily push the bill through Congress.
For the Japanese House of Representatives election, the more "mainstream" pre-election prediction of foreign media is that it is basically impossible for the opposition to overthrow the ruling coalition, but the LDP will significantly reduce the number of seats.
According to a report by Kyodo News Agency on October 30, the five opposition parties of the Constitutional Democratic Party, the Communist Party, the National Democratic Party, the Reiwa New Election Group, and the Social Democratic Party jointly nominated a candidate in 70% of the constituencies, of which 132 constituencies were actually one-on-one "decisive battles" between the government and the opposition.
Another Japanese media reported that a total of 51 constituencies formed a fierce battle situation. Among them, the LDP "Ishihara brothers", former Tokyo Governor Shintaro Ishihara's eldest son Shintaro Ishihara, and his third son Ishihara Hirotaka fell into a "bitter battle" in Tokyo. Kishida's last election campaign in Shinagawa Ward was for the Ishihara Hirotaka platform. In addition to them, LDP Secretary General Gan Liming also faces particularly serious challenges. The Yomiuri Shimbun said that the opposition parties concentrated their firepower on attacking hereditary or heavyweight parliamentarians this time. Kyodo News Agency reported on the evening of October 31 that the Ishihara brothers and Gan Liming lost in the small constituency competition, but Gan Liming was elected to the parliament under the proportional representation system.
The LDP is desperate to shake off a "turbulent year", but...
For Kishida Fumio, who has just become Japan's prime minister, the election to Japan's House of Representatives is a test — his leadership and popularity are under scrutiny. Kyodo News Agency said Kishida set the ruling party's majority of seats as the "winning and losing line." In the eyes of the outside world, this is an "easy" goal. Reuters commented on October 31 that even if he retained the ruling position of the Liberal Democratic Party and the Komeito Party, if the LDP lost a large number of seats, this result would be regarded as a setback. Analysts warn that if the LDP does not perform well, it could lose in next summer's Senate election.
Reuters said that if Kishida's party power base is eroded, it could trigger infighting and return Japan to the era of "short-lived government". If this happens, it will also have a negative impact on Japan's international status. After World War II, japan had only five politicians who served more than five years as prime minister, and some even served as prime minister for only two months, according to Agence France-Presse. The long-reigning Liberal Democratic Party is trying to find a new start in the election, but Moody's senior economist Stefan Angelik said Japan's 106 million voters "have a hard time getting excited about the new prime minister" and that "Kishida faces the problem of declining support and more coordinated opposition parties, but he also has the advantage of improving the epidemic situation and economic prospects."
The Japanese election is also a judgment on the LDP's "dominant" political situation that has lasted for nearly nine years. Recently, various circles in Japan have reviewed and reflected on economic development in recent years. According to an editorial in the Yomiuri Shimbun, although "Abenomics" has achieved certain results in promoting the development of enterprises and promoting the rise of stock prices, the results of the economic development strategy positioned as the "third arrow" are lackluster. The New York Times said that the number of new crown pneumonia infections in Japan is currently decreasing, but japanese people still have a feeling that the ruling party has not handled the epidemic properly. The slow rollout of vaccination policies has delayed Japan's economic recovery.
Agence France-Presse quoted Kusek, a scholar at Temple University in the United States, as saying that today, the LDP is eager to leave a "turbulent year" behind, but the reality is that they still have to continue to struggle.